Ellen Prager - Dangerous Earth: What We Wish We Knew about Volcanoes, Hurricanes, Climate Change, Earthquakes, and More

Ellen Prager

The University of Chicago Press

Chicago and London

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637

The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London

2020 by Ellen Prager

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637.

Published 2020

Printed in the United States of America

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ISBN-13: 978-0-226-54169-3 (cloth)

ISBN-13: 978-0-226-54172-3 (e-book)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.7208/chicago/9780226541723.001.0001

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Prager, Ellen J., author.

Title: Dangerous Earth : what we wish we knew about volcanoes, hurricanes, climate change, earthquakes, and more / Ellen Prager.

Description: Chicago : University of Chicago Press, 2020. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: LCCN 2019025458 | ISBN 9780226541693 (cloth) | ISBN 9780226541723 (ebook)

Subjects: LCSH: Natural disasters. | Climatic changes. | Hazard mitigation.

Classification: LCC GB5014 .P73 2020 | DDC 551dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019025458

This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper).

For Dave, whose passion for family and weather knows few bounds, for bringing so much joy, laughter, and love into my life

The Earth is a beautiful and wondrous planet, but also frustratingly complex and at times violent. Much of what has made it livable can also cause catastrophe. Volcanic eruptions create land and produce fertile, nutrient-rich soil but can also bury forests, fields, or entire towns under ash, mud, lava, and debris. The very forces that create and recycle Earths crust also spawn destructive earthquakes and tsunamis. Water and wind bring and spread life, but in hurricanes they can leave devastation in their wake. And while it is the planets warmth that enables life to thrive, rapidly increasing temperatures cause sea level to rise and weather events to become more extreme. On Mother Earth, it is a love-hate relationship for the planets residents.

Humans have been dealing with the dangers of living on Earth since our species first arose. In years past, calamities were often explained through myth or religion. Today, we look to science for answers after disasters strike.

But science isnt a static process. It involves observing, testing, and retesting. It is a process replete with failure as well as success and controversy. Some ideas yield new insights that become part of our fundamental understanding of how the planet works. Other concepts go down the proverbial toilet. Over time, it is the process of doing science that adds to our growing knowledge about the Earth. And along the way, new questions continually arise, while mysterious unknowns may linger.

The unknowns are also what drive science. They fascinate and frustrate us. They ignite our curiosity and passion to learn. When we think of the unknown, we often imagine the strange, the alienthings beyond our planet, our reach, our everyday life. What lies in a galaxy far, far away? What strange creatures inhabit the oceans unexplored depths? But all around us are amazing mysteries: things that remain undiscovered, unresolved, and in some cases unimaginedthe unknown unknowns.

Science is critical to society, and it is constantly evolving. Science is about what we know, what we dont know, and how we learn. This book is not meant to be a comprehensive guide to the phenomenon described. Its goal is, rather, to highlight game-changing eventssome tragic, yet astonishingand to consider what was learned from them, and what remains unknown.

When it comes to planet Earth and its most powerful forcesforces that have led to disaster in the past and will do so again in the futurethe scientific unknowns are not abstract, esoteric topics. They are the wellspring of questions whose answers could help prevent tragic and catastrophic loss. Why cant we predict earthquakes and tsunamis, or when and how a volcano will erupt? Why cant we forecast where and when the next giant landslide or mudflow will occur? And what makes it so difficult to determine, in a warming climate, how fast and how high sea level will rise?

Part of the answer to these questions is that the phenomena involved are frustratingly difficult to study. Many of the Earths processes are dynamic, ephemeral, and their origins are hidden from view. Humans are short-lived creatures on the skin of the planet at the base of the atmosphere. We cannot readily see into the oceans depths, beneath Earths rocky surface, below polar ice, or above the clouds. Our lives, indeed, our historical record of events, are a blip in the planets billions of years of existence. The most powerful and destructive events are also fortunately rare, but their infrequency is an obstacle to learning. Like the unknown, these conditions challenge scientists, yet also inspire them to persevere and develop new and innovative means of studying the Earth, the ocean, and the atmosphere.

Scientists now use sophisticated and rapidly improving technology to learn ever more about the planet, pursuing research even in extreme conditions and previously inaccessible environments. They have learned to expect the unexpectedits how science works, evolving as new data are obtained and give birth to new ideas. Data are critical, and collecting more is the goal. But how much data or knowledge is needed before theories become fact or action can be taken? Do we know enough now, even with unknowns remaining, to reduce risk and save lives and property? Sometimes its what we already know that keeps us up at night.

As human populations continue to increase and spread across the planet, more people than ever are at risk, from natural disasters and from crises humans have created or exacerbated. Weve learned a lot about how the Earth works, about the powerful forces that can cause destruction, but many mysteries remain.

In the following pages, Ive recounted some of the astounding and often tragically destructive events that have changed our worldview. I consider what was surprising about them, what science was learned from them, andjust as importantwhat scientists still wish they knew. For scientists, it is not a weakness to say, I dont know, but a strength. Because admitting we dont know opens the door to exploration and inquiry, which are fundamental to learning.

Science can sometimes be confusing, especially the technical details. So Ive tried to keep it simple, to explain some of the basics and use compelling stories, fascinating projects, and vivid images to make the science more user-friendly and engaging. My apologies to the many programs, projects, organizations, and scientists Ive neglected to mention. Some who have generously spoken or corresponded with me appear in the text; others are acknowledged at the back of the book or can be found in the list of readings and references. In the chapters themselves, Ive kept the acronyms, jargon, and who-did-what-when to a minimum and focused on, again, what we know and, even more so, what we wish we knew. The information provided is based on data, not ideology or beliefs, except where stated.