Andrew Hacker - Downfall: The Demise of a President and His Party

Copyright 2020 by Andrew Hacker

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available on file.

Cover design by Mona Lin

Cover photo credit: Getty Images

Print ISBN: 978-1-5107-6019-6

Ebook ISBN: 978-1-5107-6020-2

Printed in the United States of America

Praise for Downfall and Andrew Hacker

The statistics Hacker provides are always revealing and often downright shocking.

Washington Post

Andrew Hacker has written a provocative book predicting a Trump defeat in 2020. And it goes beyond Trump to address changes in American society and politics that have influenced the current turmoil in the United States. Book discussion groups will be debating its contents right up to November and beyond.

Joel D. Aberbach, Distinguished Professor Emeritus
of Political Science and Public Policy, UCLA

Few people writing today for a general audience can make more sense of numbers.

Wall Street Journal

Hackers calm, analytical eye, his unblinking view of American history, and his unwillingness to accept cast and common sense as facts.

The New York Times

In an area dominated by polemics, disingenuousness or the Saharan aridity of academic prose, Hacker invites us into his den for a quiet and richly documented conversation.

Boston Globe

Quietly terrifying.

Christian Science Monitor

Hackers accounting of American history is knowledgeable, his judgments on it are just.

TIME

Accurate, incisive, never dull.

Times Literary Supplement

Perceptive, sharp, and stimulating.

Atlanta Journal

has appeared in Bloomberg Opinion .

For

Claudia and Ann

Betsy and Tim

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

My experience at Skyhorse Publishing again brought home to me how vital editors are to the literary craft. Hence my gratitude to Mark Gompertz, Elena Silverberg, Susan Barnett, Kirsten Dalley, and Mona Lin. They took my offbeat proposal seriously, reined me in when I bit off too much, and piloted nebulous drafts into an actual book.

At earlier stages, I had invaluable and expert assistance from Sydney Beveridge and Ann Gower. This is my seventh book with Robin Straus, who is far more than an agent. A cherished friend, she cheered me on through Downfall s longer-than-usual gestation.

And, of course, my family. Thats them in the Dedication.

When friends, colleagues, and acquaintances learned about the subject of this book, it often commandeered the conversation. Their questions, comments, even angst and disbelief, helped me at every stage. So my appreciation to:

Jorge Alves, Philip Anderson, Stewart Berger, John Bowman, Julia Cass, Robin Chotzinoff, Alyson Cole, Cory Dean, Eric Dexheimer, Joel Dreyfuss, Susana Duncan, Kathy Eden, Gwen Engelhard, Edward Jay Epstein, Ziva Flamhaft, Ellen Frell, Ester Fuchs, Julie George, Bill Goldstein, Ellen Gould, Timothy Gower, Lewis Gould Vartan Gregorian, David Helfand, Kenneth Hollander, Harvey Jay, Joseph Kanon, Andrew Katzenstein, Ethel Klein, Michael Krasner, Edward Krugman, Jon Landsman, Charles Lesage, Julia Lesage, Richard Levy, Peter Liberman, Sara Liberman, Judith Kimerling, Kenna Lipsitz, Karen Litzy, Ian Lustbader, Alda Muyskens, Jim Muyskens, Anne Nelson, Donald Newhouse, Nancy Newhouse, Dennis Overbye, Veronica Polland, Eduardo Porter, Patricia Rachal, FrancoisPierre-Louis, Alex Reichl, Sam Roberts, Ann Rolett, Rod Rolet, Joe Rollins, Daniel Rose, Don Rose, Joanna Rose, Rich Sandomir, Anya Schiffrin, Joan Silvers, Debora Spar, Joseph Stiglitz, Judith Summerfield, Yan Sun, Owan Tulloch, Daniel Victor, Diane Wachtell, Shelley Wanger, Nancy Wartik, Blake West, and Hratch Zadoian.

TO THE READER

It is unusual for a book to open with a missive like this. But Downfall is not a usual book.

As its subtitle proclaims, it offers a prediction. Even more, it does so with full confidence about what will occur. In this case, how millions of Americans will cast their ballots on this coming November 3. That forecast will be based on new and often unexpected findings about this nations electorate.

But theres one piece of information that was not known when this book went to press. Democrats had yet to settle on their candidate. By some lights, this might seem a vital variable.

This year, it wont matter.

A central finding of Downfall is that whoever heads the Democratic ticket will crush Donald Trump. That entrant will win, simply by being an alternative to the current incumbent. Ensuing chapters will show the depth of public disgust, even in surprising parts of the country. Not to mention that Trumps 2016 following, far from growing, has severely diminished. In short, the casino magnates trajectory is over. He can no longer lure enough Americans to swing the Electoral College, let alone a popular majority. As voters move down the ballot, they will unseat Republicans at every level. That party will pay the price of embracing him.

A. H.

PART I

WHY HE CANT DO IT AGAIN

ONE TERM

There is not even a long-odds chance that Donald Trump will gain a second term. Nor is this wishful thinking. Compelling evidence abounds that anyone the Democrats nominate will win the popular vote, and by a margin to easily carry the Electoral College. Republicans down the ballot will suffer a similar demise, losing even more House seats, and very likely the Senate.

The chapters that follow, based on reliable facts and figures, will show how this upheaval is inevitable. Here are some signposts, to show how the book will unfold.

In a shrouded symbiosis, Donald Trump and the Republican Party have been fueling their dual downfall. Both have become willfully insensible to how the bulk of their fellow citizens see themselves and feel about the world. A distinctive electorate is emerging, reflecting their own evolution and social trends, with new outlooks and attributes altering the political scene.

Needless to say, the catalyst is the president himself. For more than four years, we have heard about the fervor and loyalty of his putative base. What has more recently emerged is that this cadre (Lock Her Up!) is dwindling rather than gaining new recruits. Attention will also be paid to his party, which is more than ever estranged from the rest of the country.

Its not enough to record that most Americans disapprove of Donald Trump. True, theyve been saying that to pollsters even before he took the oath. Subsequent voting has revealed something deeper. Our forty-fifth president evokes a revulsion unmatched in living memory. Its what is impelling the electoral surge aimed at his unseating.