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Andreas Wenger - The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future

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Andreas Wenger The Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future

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This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields.

The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations.

The Open Access version of this book, available at https://www.routledge.com/The-Politics-and-Science-of-Prevision-Governing-and-Probing/Wenger-Jasper-Cavelty/p/book/9780367900748, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license.

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The Politics and Science of Prevision
This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields.
The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.
This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations.
Andreas Wenger is Professor of International and Swiss Security Policy and Director of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Ursula Jasper is the Policy Officer at Fondation Botna in Switzerland. Prior to this she worked for many years as a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Myriam Dunn Cavelty is Deputy Head of Research and Teaching at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
CSS Studies in Security and International Relations
Series Editor: Andreas Wenger
Center for Security Studies, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich
The CSS Studies in Security and International Relations series examines historical and contemporary aspects of security and conflict. The series provides a forum for new research based upon an expanded conception of security and will include monographs by the Centers research staff and associated academic partners.
Peacekeeping in Africa
The evolving security architecture
Edited by Thierry Tardy and Marco Wyss
Strategic Culture, Securitisation and the Use of Force
Post-9/11 security practices of liberal democracies
Wilhelm Mirow
Russias Security Policy under Putin
A critical perspective
Aglaya Snetkov
Negotiating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
Origins of the nuclear order
Edited by Roland Popp, Liviu Horovitz and Andreas Wenger
Inter-organisational Relations in International Security
Cooperation and Competition
Edited by Stephen Aris, Aglaya Snetkov and Andreas Wenger
The Politics and Science of Prevision
Governing and Probing the Future
Edited by Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper and Myriam Dunn Cavelty
For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/CSS-Studies-in-Security-and-International-Relations/book-series/CSSIR
The Politics and Science of Prevision
Governing and Probing the Future
Edited by Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper and Myriam Dunn Cavelty
First published 2020 by Routledge 2 Park Square Milton Park Abingdon Oxon - photo 1
First published 2020
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
2020 selection and editorial matter, Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper and Myriam Dunn Cavelty; individual chapters, the contributors
The right of Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper and Myriam Dunn Cavelty to be identified as the authors of the editorial matter, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives 4.0 license
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Wenger, Andreas, editor. | Jasper, Ursula, editor. | Dunn Cavelty, Myriam, editor.
Title: The politics and science of prevision : governing and probing the future / edited by Andreas Wenger, Ursula Jasper, and Myriam Dunn Cavelty.
Description: Abingdon, Oxon; New York: Routledge, 2020. | Series: CSS studies in security and international relations | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020008398 (print) | LCCN 2020008399 (ebook) | ISBN 9780367900748 (hardback) | ISBN 9781003022428 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Policy sciences. | Forecasting. | Human security-Forecasting.
Classification: LCC H61.4 .P65 2020 (print) | LCC H61.4 (ebook) | DDC 320.6-dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020008398
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020008399
ISBN: 978-0-367-90074-8 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-1-003-02242-8 (ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Wearset Ltd
Contents
Figures
Tables
Editors
Myriam Dunn Cavelty is Deputy Head of Research and Teaching at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich. She is the author of Cyber-Security and Threat Politics: US Efforts to Secure the Information Age (Routledge, 2008). Orcid.org/0000000237751284.
Ursula Jasper is the Policy Officer at Fondation Botnar. Prior to joining the foundation, she worked as a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich. Before moving into the global health sector, she had published several peer-reviewed articles, book chapters and a monograph on international politics. Orcid.org/0000000290521242.
Andreas Wenger is Professor of International and Swiss Security Policy at ETH Zurich and Director of the Center for Security Studies (CSS). The focus of his main research interests lies on security and strategic studies, the history of international relations and Swiss security politics. Orcid.org/0000000320851227.
Authors
Brian Balmer is Professor of Science Policy Studies, Department of Science and Technology Studies, University College London. He has published widely on the history of chemical and biological warfare and is author of Secrecy and Science (Ashgate, 2012) and Britain and Biological Warfare (Palgrave, 2001). Orcid.org/0000000281308423.
Corinne Bara is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research (DPCR), Uppsala University. At DPCR, she leads a project on the impact of ceasefire agreements on the trajectory of violence in war zones. Orcid.org/0000000198310573.
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