A. S. Bhalla - The Employment Impact of Chinas WTO Accession

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The Employment Impact of Chinas WTO Accession

The book explores the macroeconomic (trade and investment liberalization) and sectoral employment (in agriculture, industry and services) implications, of Chinas accession to the World Trade Organization. It argues that short-run employment losses may occur due to global competition, the phasing out of protection under WTO rules and the restructuring of state-owned enterprises. It discusses three possible measures to protect employment against competition: devaluation, non-compliance and a production shift from tradeables to non-tradeables. The book argues that the first two measures are unlikely while the third is feasible in a large country like China. In the longer term China will be able to generate additional employment particularly in the tertiary sectors. It will also be able to maintain its comparative advantage in labour-intensive exports by relocating production from the high-cost coastal areas to the labour-abundant, lower-cost hinterland.

A.S. Bhallais an Economic Consultant based in Geneva. He was formerly Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge, and Special Adviser to the President of IDRC (Canada). He has held academic positions at the universities of Manchester, Oxford and Yale. His fields of specialization include comparative economic development, poverty alleviation, and globalization.

Shufang Qiu is an Economic and Business Consultant based in Cambridge, UK. He has worked for the Chinese Government on economic reforms. His research interests include poverty alleviation, the World Trade Organization and economic transition in China.

Also by A.S. Bhalla

Blending of New and Traditional Technologies (co-editor)

Economic Transition in Hunan and Southern China

Environment, Employment and Development (editor) (also in Portuguese)

Facing the Technological Challenge

Globalization, Growth and Marginalization (editor) (also in French)

Market or Government Failures? An Asian Perspective

New Technologies and Development (co-editor)

Poverty and Exclusion in a Global World (co-author)

Regional Blocs: Building Blocks or Stumbling Blocks?

Small and Medium Enterprises: Technology Policies and Options (editor)

Technological Transformation of Rural India (co-editor)

Technology and Employment in Industry (editor) (also in Spanish)

Towards Global Action for Appropriate Technology (editor)

Uneven Development in the Third World

RoutledgeCurzon studies on the Chinese economy

Series editors
Peter Nolan
University of Cambridge
Dong Fureng
Beijing University

The aim of this series is to publish original, high-quality, research-level work by both new and established scholars in the West and the East, on all aspects of the Chinese economy, including studies of business and economic history.

1. The Growth of Market Relations in Post-reform Rural China
   A micro-analysis of peasants, migrants and peasant entrepreneurs Hiroshi Sato
   
2. The Chinese Coal Industry
   An economic history
   Elspeth Thomson
   
3. Sustaining Chinas Economic Growth in the Twenty-first Century
   Edited by Shujie Yao and Xiaming Liu
   
4. Chinas Poor Regions
   Ruralurban migration, poverty, economic reform and urbanisation
   Mei Zhang
   
5. Chinas Large Enterprises and the Challenge of Late Industrialization
   Dylan Sutherland
   
6. Chinas Economic Growth
   Yanrui Wu
   
7. The Employment Impact of Chinas WTO Accession
   A.S. Bhalla and Shufang Qiu
   

The Employment Impact of Chinas WTO Accession

A.S. Bhalla and Shufang Qiu

To our wives Praveen and Hazel

First published 2004
by RoutledgeCurzon
11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by RoutledgeCurzon
29 West 35th Street, New York, NY 10001

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2004.

RoutledgeCurzon is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group

2004 A.S. Bhalla and Shufang Qiu

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested

ISBN 0-203-16465-2 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 0-203-34170-8 (Adobe eReader Format)
ISBN 0-415-30839-9 (Print Edition)

Figures

Chinas foreign trade by foreign and domestic firms (198099)

Wageproductivity ratios for Chinas export-oriented and import-competing industries (198495)

Chinas nominal and real effective exchange rates (19852000)

Changes in real effective exchange rates: China and selected Asian countries (19852000)

Chinas provincial unemployment rates

Employment in Chinese SOEs and other ownership types (199099)

Sectoral employment shares in China (195299)

Shares of the Chinese textile industry: Output, employment, exports and profits (199098)

Composition of Chinese automotive production (198099)

Composition of Chinas automotive exports (1999)

Shares of automotive sales by ownership (1995 and 1999)

Output volumes of Chinas major household appliances (198799)

Employment trends in selected services in China (19852000)

Employment in selected services in China by ownership categories (1995 and 2000)

Changes in FDI by region (19922000)

Visit to a state-owned enterprise in Guizhou Province (Southwest China)

Tables

Chronology of events leading up to Chinas accession to the WTO

Lowering of tariff and non-tariff barriers in China (19862005)

Chinas import tariff rate reductions by commodity (19982006)

Non-tariff measures affecting Chinas imports in 1996

Chinas trade in manufactured goods (199199)

Trade, export and import growth rates of domestic and foreign-funded firms (198199)

Matrix of the impact of WTO accession on Chinas industry and economy

State ownership and the degree of competition in Chinese industry

Changes in market shares in Chinese light industry by enterprise ownership

Changes in RCA indices for Chinas primary products and manufactures (19802000)

Global competitiveness ranking of China and other selected countries

Industrial wageproductivity ratios in China (198095)

Wages, labour costs and productivity in manufacturing in China and other Asian countries

Official and unofficial rates of urban unemployment in China

Employment and worker lay-offs in coastal and non-coastal areas by ownership categories (1999)

SOE employment in Chinese manufacturing sectors (19982000)

Estimates of surplus labour in Chinese SOEs and other enterprises

Characteristics of laid-off workers by ownership categories in 1998

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