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Tim Oliver - Europes Brexit: EU Perspectives on Britains Vote to Leave

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Book:
Europes Brexit: EU Perspectives on Britains Vote to Leave
Author:
Tim Oliver
Publisher:
Agenda Publishing
Genre:
Science / Politics
Year:
2018
City:
Newcastle upon Tyne
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The Brexit debate in the UK focuses almost exclusively on the UKs own position within the European Union and largely ignores the reaction and opinion of the other twenty-seven member states. The UKs negotiations will, however, involve each and every member state, as well as the EU institutions, and their past relationship with the UK will be critical for shaping any future international relations.
This book offers an in-depth, ground-up analysis of the attitudes and opinions of the rest of Europe towards Brexit. Covering the period from David Camerons attempt to negotiate EU reform prior to the referendum and closing with the triggering of Article 50, the book charts the individual member states response to, coverage of, and political fallout from the UKs referendum process and result. The aim is to provide a backdrop for the future relations of those states with the UK and their likely positions during the negotiations. Drawing on the research of country experts, the book provides essential context and insight into the likely approach of the European nations towards the UK at this historic juncture.

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EUROPES BREXIT

EU Perspectives on Britains Vote to Leave

Edited by

TIM OLIVER

2018 Tim Oliver; individual chapters, the contributors

This book is copyright under the Berne Convention.

No reproduction without permission.

First published in 2018 by Agenda Publishing

Agenda Publishing Limited

The Core

Science Central

Bath Lane

Newcastle upon Tyne

NE4 5TF

www.agendapub.com

ISBN 978-1-78821-052-2

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Typeset by Out of House Publishing

CONTENTS

Tim Oliver

Nicolai von Ondarza

Andrew Gilmore

Vivien Pertusot

Agata Gostyska-Jakubowska

Yann-Sven Rittelmeyer and Fabian Zuleeg

Rem Korteweg, Fabian Willermain, Alexander Mattelaer and Martine Huberty

Henrik Larsen, Juha Jokela and Gran von Sydow

Eleanora Poli, George Tzogopoulos, Adonis Pegasiou and Roderick Pace

Antnio Raimundo and Laia Mestres

James Dennison, Ieva Grumbinait and Tim Oliver

Arnold Kammel, Vladimir Bartovic, Zoltn Glik and Vladimir Bilik

Antoinette Primatarova, Senada elo abi, Agnes Nicolescu and Marko Lovec

Tim Oliver

This book would not have been possible without the encouragement, support and patience of Alison Howson at Agenda. Our grateful thanks to her for all her help. The origins of the book can be traced back to a report published by the DGAP in 2014 and a series of blog posts that followed in 2015 and 2016 on the LSEs EUROPP blog and Brexit blog. We are grateful to the DGAP and the editors of both blogs for the opportunity to publish analysis as events unfolded. Thanks to Alex Boyle for research assistance. And our thanks to President Van Rompuy for providing the book with a foreword.

ABBL	Luxembourg Associations of Banks
ALFI	Luxembourg Association of Funds
CETA	EUCanadian Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement
COSAC	Conference of Parliamentary Committees for Union Affairs of Parliaments of the European Union
CSDP	Common Security and Defence Policy
DGAP	German Council on Foreign Relations
EBA	European Banking Authority
ECFR	European Council on Foreign Relations
ECJ	European Court of Justice
ECR	European Conservatives and Reformists
EEA	European Economic Area
EEC	European Economic Community
EFTA	European Free Trade Association
ESDP	European Security and Defence Policy
EMA	European Medicines Agency
EMU	Economic and Monetary Union
EP	European Parliament
EPP	European Peoples Party
FCO	Foreign and Commonwealth Office
HMG	Her Majestys Government
NATO	North Atlantic Treaty Organization
ONS	Office for National Statistics (UK)
PiS	Law and Justice Party (Poland)
QMV	qualified majority voting
SME	small and medium-sized enterprise
V4	Visegrd Four Group (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia)
WTO	World Trade Organization

Herman Van Rompuy
President of the European Council, 20092014

Brexit is full of surprises. The result was a surprise even for the Leavers. For me and many others, it was a sad surprise. No longer was the European Union an irreversible project. It was established to create irreversible economic and political bonds for the sake of an ever-lasting peace. The Union embodied values, and the most important of all was: peace. The EU was and is much more than an economic added value. The Union is not an aim in itself. It is a peace project. Brexit has national sovereignty as a goal in itself. If the EU falls apart, peace is not guaranteed. It is a sad thing that the Brexit debate is mainly about trade and the City of London. Much more is at stake.

It was a happy surprise that support for EU membership amongst the citizens of the remaining 27 member states increased dramatically after Brexit. For a large majority of them, Brexit was not a template. It would add instability to an already unstable world. The EU had become part of our DNA, even if we lack enthusiasm for it. For young people, a return to the old world of borders and national currencies seems unworldly. If any Britons thought that Brexit would be the beginning of the end of the EU, the start of the unravelling process, this was not the case. It was the first in a long series of miscalculations on the part of some in Britain.

Another surprise was the unity of the remaining 27 member states during the first phase of the Brexit negotiations. Britain is negotiating with a bloc that speaks with one voice. It means that we have an answer to Henry Kissingers question Who do I call if I want to speak to Europe?. You can now call Brussels! By contrast, Britain speaks with many voices and is not so united anymore. It is obvious that in the talks on the future EUUK relationship the EU has to work hard to remain united, but we are used to compromise. The EU is based on compromise. Compare this with the United States today, which is falling apart into two opposed groups because compromise is no longer possible.

Our British friends were surprised about their weak negotiating position. The main reason is that the United Kingdom is economically much more dependent on the EU27 than vice versa: 45 per cent of UK exports go to the EU27, while only 8 per cent of EU exports go to the UK. The EU will also remain the biggest single market in the world, even after Brexit. The euro is the worlds second currency. The economies of the Eurozone are doing well, and 8 million jobs were created between 2014 and 2018. The EU27 are negotiating with self-confidence and in unison. Therefore, it is not a surprise that Britain accepted the EUs proposals on the status of its citizens in the UK and on the divorce bill. It should also be noted that the EUs proposals were not extravagant.

From day one after the referendum it was clear that an arrangement was needed to cover the period between Brexit and an agreement on the future relationship. Now it is clear that there is no alternative than to stay in the single market and in the customs union during the transition. Negotiating a bespoke transitional arrangement could be as difficult as discussing the future relationship. Even two years will be a short time to negotiate that new relationship. It can always be prolonged. All this was known in advance. It took time for some in Britain to acknowledge reality.

The British position is also affected by the breakdown of the special relationship with the United States. The policy differences with the US president were and are huge. The most striking example is trade. The UK wants to become the champion of free trade at a moment when the Trump administration is pushing the USA towards protectionism. At the same time the EU finalised a trade deal with Japan, the biggest ever in its history. Other free trade agreements (FTAs) are in the pipeline. Never forget that FTAs are mainly about goods, but British industry is only half as important as those in many other European countries. It is in services that the UK economys strength lies, and agreement on services in an FTA is extremely difficult to secure.

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