Peter Shearman - Russian Foreign Policy Since 1990

It has become common to talk of the turbulence in world politics that marks our time. With the end of the Cold War and the spectacular demise of communism in the late twentieth century, old certainties have given way to confusion as the world crosses the threshold of a new era. The world as we knew it is being remade in front of our very eyes. It is difficult enough trying to make sense of transformative dynamics in global politics as they take place all around usseeking to understand, as it were, moving targets on their way to unknown destinations. It is doubly difficult when we have lost confidence in the theories and approaches that dominated academic studies on international relations and Soviet and communist politics during the Cold War period. Realism as a political theory failed to predict the end of great-power rivalry, the unilateral Soviet withdrawal from its sphere of influence, and the rise of nationalism. Kremlinology and Sovietology gave no indications of the imminent collapse of the neo-Stalinist communist systemindeed, most Soviet area specialists, right up to the end, were confidently predicting the continuing territorial integrity and stability of the Soviet state.