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Ning Lu - The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China

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The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China
Author:
Ning Lu
Publisher:
Routledge
Genre:
Science / Politics
Year:
2018
City:
London
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Lu Ning, former assistant to a vice-foreign minister of China, draws on archival materials, interviews, and personal experiences, to provide unique insights into the formal and informal structures, processes, mechanisms, and dynamics of--and key players in--foreign-policy decisionmaking in Beijing. Lu Ning sheds light on controversial decisions that were made, such as Chinas entering the Korean War, selling DF-3 missiles to Saudi Arabia in 1986, and cooperating with the Israeli defense establishment.Lu Ning divulges the inner workings of Beijings foreign ministry, introduces new Chinese language sources, and presents a series of case studies that challenge existing Western theoretical analysis of Chinese policymaking. Based on his examination of the past forty years, Lu Ning makes predictions about likely changes in Beijings leadership and in its foreign-policy decisionmaking process. This accessibly written, incisive book will be invaluable to anyone interested in Sinology, Chinese foreign policy, comparative foreign policy, and contemporary international relations of East Asia.This second edition contains a fully revised Introduction, and it has been updated through President Clintons recent visit to China. The new edition also contains new material on the Clinton Administrations varying policy positions toward China.

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The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decisionmaking in China

First published 2000 by Westview Press

Published 2018 by Routledge

711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USA

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:

Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Lu, Ning, 1995-

The dynamics of foreign-policy decisionmaking in China / Lu Ning.2nd ed.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 0-8133-3746-1

1. ChinaForeign relations administration. 2. ChinaForeign relations1949.

I. Title.

JZ1730.L8 2000

327.5dc21

99-058483

ISBN 13: 978-0-8133-3746-3 (pbk)

To my parents
Lu Yujin and Xu Mingbao

Contents

Guide

CASS	Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
CIISS	China Institute of International and Strategic Studies
CMC	Central Military Commission
COSTIND	Commission of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense
CPAFFC	Chinese Peoples Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries
CPC	Communist Party of China
CPIFA	Chinese Peoples Institute of Foreign Affairs
FAO	Foreign Affairs Office
GED	General Equipment Department
GPD	General Political Department
GSD	General Staff Department
HMAO	Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office of the State Council
ICIR	Institute for Contemporary International Relations
IIS	Institute of International Studies
ILD	International Liaison Department
LSG	leading small group
MFA	Ministry of Foreign Affairs
MOFTEC	Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation
NORINCO	North Industrial Corporation
OCAO	Overseas Chinese Affairs Office of the State Council
PFLI	Peking Foreign Language Institute
PLA	Peoples Liberation Army
PLAN	PLA Navy
PRC	Peoples Republic of China
RFI	request for instructions
SALT I	Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty
TAO	Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council
TFA	Third Field Army

I would like to thank the United States Institute of Peace for providing a generous grant, which made researching and writing this book possible. In particular, I am grateful to Dr. Richard H. Solomon, President of the Institute of Peace, and Professor W. Scott Thompson for helping to organize a special session to discuss the manuscript. I would also like to thank Dr. Alfred D. Wilhelm Jr., Executive Vice President of the Atlantic Council of the United States, for hosting me while I was researching and writing the book; Karen Sutter, for reading through and commenting on my manuscript; and Dana Liu, for administrative assistance. Thanks also go to Hua Di, who provided details on a case study I have used for the book. I am deeply indebted to the late A. Doak Barnett, without whose strong support and encouragement, as well as assistance, I probably would never have submitted my research findings for publication.

Lu Ning

The end of the Cold War has dramatically shifted the focus of international relations to trade and economy. Nowhere is the quest for economic growth pursued with such single-mindedness than in the Asia-Pacific region where its success is rapidly transforming this vast and diverse region from Ulan Bator to Jakarta, from Urumchi to Tokyo. Increasingly countries in the region view their national security in terms of sustained economic growth. By the mid-1990s, the economies of the Asia-Pacific region (excluding the United States and Canada) accounted for 34 percent of world output. Their share is expected to reach more than 40 percent. Trade between the United States and the Asia-Pacific region was 40 percent larger than U.S.-West European trade.

The most noticeable trend is the recent rise of China. In the two decades since China embarked on a course of economic reform, Chinas real gross national product has registered an average growth rate of more than 9 percent a year. Measured in terms of purchasing power, Chinas economy by the mid-1990s ranked third, behind only those of the United States and Japan.

The implications of this transformation for the rest of the world have not been fully assessed. Already we are witnessing some of its impact on international relations:

Chinas continued trade in missile and nuclear technologies is causing serious tensions between China and the United States, which in the past imposed sanctions against the former;
Chinas military modernization programits postCold War arms purchases and the shift in its military doctrine to fighting local warsand its continuing territorial disputes in the South China Sea have caused anxieties among its Southeast Asian neighbors;
Chinas growing trade surplus with the United States and Western Europe has become a major point of friction between China and those countries;
Partly because of the dynamic growth in China, East and Southeast Asian economies, which in the past had been dependent on the markets in industrialized countries and thus vulnerable to their economic downturns, were able to maintain their economic growth through the last economic recession in the West. The growing economic integration of South China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan may soon emerge as a new engine of growth for the region;
Chinas high economic growth rate is outstripping the growth of its domestic energy supply. Since the second half of 1993, China has, perhaps irreversibly, become a net oil importer. Most of its future oil imports will have to come from the Middle East, particularly the Gulf region, via the South China Sea.

If the current trends continue, China will become a much more significant player in world affairs in a decade. However, as its economy is rapidly being integrated into the world economy, China maintains a communist system of political control by a single party. Under this political system, major decisions, particularly political and foreign-policy decisions, are made with little transparency. This is in sharp contrast to the significant impact these decisions are likely to have on the rest of the world and is likely to produce great uncertainties that may have serious implications for future international relations and maintenance of world peace.

In the meantime, foreign-policy decisionmaking in China is undergoing a period of transition. In the early years of the Peoples Republic of China, Mao Zedong allowed a limited degree of top leadership participation in some of the key foreign-policy discussions and debates, as in the early decision to enter into strategic alliance with the Soviet Union, known as leaning to one side in the new regimes foreign-policy orientation, and most importantly in the decision to intervene in the Korean conflict in 1950.

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