Suisheng Zhao - The Dragon Roars Back: Transformational Leaders and Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy

The Dragon Roars Back

TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADERS AND DYNAMICS OF CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY

Suisheng Zhao

STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

STANFORD, CALIFORNIA

STANFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

Stanford, California

2023 by Suisheng Zhao. All rights reserved.

No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press.

Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: Zhao, Suisheng, 1954- author.

Title: The dragon roars back : transformational leaders and dynamics of Chinese foreign policy / Suisheng Zhao.

Description: Stanford, California : Stanford University Press, [2023] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2022012282 (print) | LCCN 2022012283 (ebook) | ISBN 9781503630888 (cloth) | ISBN 9781503634145 (paperback) | ISBN 9781503634152 (ebook)

Subjects: LCSH: Political leadershipChina. | ChinaForeign relations1949

Classification: LCC DS777.8 .Z44 2023 (print) | LCC DS777.8 (ebook) | DDC 327.51dc23/eng/20220622

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022012282

LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022012283

Cover design: Zoe Norvell

Cover illustration: Shutterstock/9comeback

Typeset by Newgen in Adobe Garamond Pro 11/15

Contents

Abbreviations

Introduction

Dynamics of Chinese Foreign Policy: Leaders Matter

AN EMPIRE STRETCHING BACK TWO MILLENNIA and symbolized as the dragon from the haven, Imperial China began a steady decline and plunged into wars and revolutions after it was defeated by foreign imperialist powers in the nineteenth century. Now the dragon is roaring back toward the center of the world stage to regain the glory it once enjoyed when the Chinese empire incorporated vast areas into its territories. In 1902, British economist John A. Hobson mapped futures for the twentieth century depending on whether China was broken up, subordinated to a foreign power, or asserted itself as a nation-state. Hobsons insights did not catch much attention throughout the twentieth century, when China suffered through foreign invasions and internal upheavals. But his observation has confronted the world of the twenty-first century.

In modern world history, no other rising power has ever experienced Chinas turbulent history in relations with its neighbors and Western powers, achieved its current scale and central role as the biggest trading nation and hub of global supply chains, and been led by a political leader with Xi Jinpings power and sense of mission to restore China to what he believes is its natural position as a world power. When China was weak, it subordinated to others. Now China is strong, and it wants others to subordinate to China, at least on the issues involving what it regards as core national interests, including its sovereignty claims over Taiwan and territories in the East and South China Seas. The ascendance of China has, therefore, not only alarmed policy-makers in many countries but also prompted scholars to understand how China has reemerged to global power and what forces have shaped its international behavior in the past, now, and possible the future.

Understanding Chinese Foreign Policy Dynamics

Structural realism is used most often to correlate Chinas relative power and its international behavior. Realist scholars have long warned that as Chinas relative power expands, its ambition expands. A more powerful China inevitably becomes an antistatus quo power in order to redefine its national interests more expansively. A rising China, like any other rising power, has sought to maximize its share of power; become assertive in its territorial disputes with neighbors; and intensify the rivalry with the immovable United States for regional and global dominance. The rise of China, therefore, has upset the balance of power and sparked power realignments. The power transition theory adds that, in a Sino-US power showdown, the distinct absence of cultural and ideological affinity between the two countries could make the conflict violent.