Mats Larsson - Global Energy Transformation: Four Necessary Steps to Make Clean Energy the Next Success Story

GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

FOUR NECESSARY STEPS
TO MAKE CLEAN ENERGY
THE NEXT SUCCESS STORY

Mats Larsson

Management Consultant

Mats Larsson 2009

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The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

First published 2009 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN

Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS.

Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martins Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010.

Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world.

Palgrave and Macmillan are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.

ISBN-13: 9780230229198

This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. Logging, pulping and manufacturing processes are expected to conform to the environmental regulations of the country of origin.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09

Printed and bound in Great Britain by

CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham and Eastbourne

To my wife Bodil and my daughters Cajsa and Maja with thanks for all their support through the writing of this and previous books.

Global Energy Transformation Institute, www.getinstitute.com

Acknowledgments

1 Executive Summary

Part I The Challenge

2 Who Should Read This Book and Why?

3 The Sustainability Challenge

4 Four Scenarios for the Future

5 Three Examples of Large-Scale Transformation Efforts from American Twentieth-Century History

6 Gradual Change Has Caused the Need for Energy Transformation

7 Thoughts on Planning and Market Economics

Part II Organizational Learning and Change Management

8 Two Levels of Control Executive Direction and Program and Project Management

9 Tools for Program and Project Executive Direction

10 The Standard Tools of Program and Project Management

11 Change Tools

12 New Tools for Learning and Analysis

13 Financial Tools

14 Change Happens in Steps

15 A Step Change Model for Energy

16 Change in Different Sectors of the Economy

Part III The Program Structure

17 The Transformation Program

18 Transforming Transportation

20 Transforming Industrial Processes

21 Transforming the Built Environment

22 Transforming Agriculture

23 Behavior and Work Life Change

24 The Program A Very Rough Outline

Conclusion

Notes

References

Index

I would like to thank my friend Stuart Pledger, who helped with the development of the idea for the book in the early stages and who also contributed to the climate change discussion and to the part on his method for collaborative problem solving, the Collaboration Caf. Thanks also to Julian Darley and Richard Heinberg of The Post Carbon Institute in California. The e-mail questions you asked during the writing of the book generated ideas such as the global embrace and added to my thoughts on organizational learning in society. Peter Wennstrm, whom I met by chance at Schiphol airport, enthusiastically contributed ideas for the title of the book. Mikael Edholm, at the Swedish Trade Council, contributed his extensive knowledge about prediction markets.

Thanks to Thomas Bjrkman, Johanna Moberg, Glenn Widerstrm and Urban Bergstrm at the Swedish Energy Agency for support in the development of ideas on energy improvement of supply chains. Thanks also to Hkan Knutsson and Per Simonsson at Sustainable Business Hub. Our discussions gave me the ideas that generated the part about communication of ideas that drive behavior change toward sustainability.

I also thank Hans Enocson, Nordic General Manager of GE, for generously giving his time and contributing information about the GE Ecomagination project. Similarly, Inge Horkeby, Director at Volvo AB, in a series of meetings over the past 2 years, explained to me the opportunities of energy transformation in the transportation sector.

Harry Frank, former Research Director at ABB and Professor at the Royal Swedish Academy of the Sciences, provided early insight in the need for leadership in the process of energy systems transformation. Many thanks also to Lennart Swanstrm, Senior Scientist at ABB, and Pontus Cerin, Assistant Professor at the Swedish Environmental Institute, for contributing their knowledge about life cycle analysis.

I wish to thank Eva Sthl, Fredrik Adolfsson and Thomas Bergmark, managers at IKEA, for the generous contributions of information about this company and its projects in the areas of energy and the environment.

Thanks to Bengt Gebert, Jenny Bramell, Kjell Persson, Curt Schrder, Ingela Bogren and sa Dahl for daily encouragement and support.

I am also grateful to the team at Palgrave Macmillan led by Stephen Rutt for their support and ideas.

The transformation of existing energy systems to sustainable and renewable alternatives represents a tremendous management challenge. We need to view it as an opportunity to renew energy systems and renew important parts of the economy and social life. In addition to this we may see it as an opportunity to create new business and, if we manage the process well, we may also see it as an opportunity to create new economic growth. The magnitude and complexity of this challenge has not been widely recognized. So far, primarily the technical aspects of different alternatives have been debated. We know a lot about what has to change. So far, however, very little has been written about the how of the change process.

We have access to a number of renewable technologies that are currently available on a small scale, but few of those are available on a large scale. In most cases available technologies need to be improved or new technologies need to be developed, production resources for technologies, products and fuels need to be expanded and we also need to expand the knowledge base in terms of the number of people who have competence in both the areas of technology and change management during the transformation. The speed of all activities related to this change needs to be increased.