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Juan Antonio Morales - Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries

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Juan Antonio Morales Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries
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Monetary Policy in Low Financial Development Countries provides a broad coverage of the monetary policy issues faced by developing countries with low financial depth. These low and lower middle income countries are characterized by the predominance of bank finance, shallow financial markets,low financial inclusion, weak integration with world capital markets, and a high degree of informality in economic activity. Monetary policy acquires special twists, making it different in many aspects from the policies followed in advanced and emerging market economies. This book covers the mainfacets of monetary policy making, using an approach that combines discussions of theoretical arguments, of results from empirical studies and of relevant policy experiences. It presents the monetary policy instruments that central banks rely on in these countries. It assesses the specificities oftheir monetary transmission mechanism, i.e. the way central banks actions affect output and prices. It evaluates the advantages, drawbacks, and challenges of the different nominal anchors they may choose from: exchange rate targeting, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. This discussion isset against the background of the three main goals pursued by central banks: price, output, and financial stability. Particular attention is devoted to the issue of the credibility of central banks and to the trade-offs they face when external shocks, to which these countries are very vulnerable,lead to conflicts among the three goals they pursue. The authors also cover more specific topics, such as the coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, the challenges raised by dollarization, the implications of informal labour markets and of microfinance institutions for monetarypolicy-making, as well as the role of models for forecasting and policy evaluation by central banks.

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Great Clarendon Street, Oxford, OX2 6DP, United Kingdom

Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the Universitys objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide. Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries

Juan Antonio Morales and Paul Reding 2021

The moral rights of the authors have been asserted

First Edition published in 2021

Impression: 1

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press, or as expressly permitted by law, by licence or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to the Rights Department, Oxford University Press, at the address above

You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer

Published in the United States of America by Oxford University Press

198 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016, United States of America

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

Data available

Library of Congress Control Number: 2020952114

ISBN 9780198854715

ebook ISBN 9780192597021

DOI: 10.1093/oso/9780198854715.001.0001

Printed and bound by

CPI Group (UK) Ltd, Croydon, CR0 4YY

Links to third party websites are provided by Oxford in good faith and for information only. Oxford disclaims any responsibility for the materials contained in any third party website referenced in this work.

A Ccile et Genevive

qui par leur soutien et leur patience ont permis la ralisation de ce livre

Preface

The book is the outgrowth of the course Macroeconomic and structural adjustment: monetary and financial aspects taught for many years by Paul Reding at the University of Namur in the Specialized Master in International and Development Economics. This programme is jointly organized by the University of Namur (UNamur) and the Catholic University of Louvain (UCLouvain), with the support of the Commission for Development Cooperation of the Belgian Acadmie de Recherche et dEnseignement suprieur (ARES). Most of the students enrolled in the programme come from developing countries. Juan Antonio Morales participated as invited academic scholar over several years, teaching parts of the course and letting students benefit from his wide experience in policy-making, having served as President of the Central Bank of Bolivia for more than ten years.

Based on the experience with successive cohorts of students, both of us found it worthwhile to develop further the material prepared for the course and to extend it into a book. True to its pedagogical roots, the book is set at an intermediate level. When it refers to a theoretical analysis, top priority is given to economic intuition. It employs little mathematical formalization, without sacrificing rigour. It relies widely on empirical illustrations, and backs the discussion with case studies. We hope that this perspective, as well as the depth and width that we have endeavoured to give to the book, will be of interest to lecturers and students as well as to scholars, practitioners. and other readers, curious about the role and characteristics of monetary policy in developing countries, especially in those which face specific challenges because of their incomplete financial development.

Preparing the book has been an adventure for both of us. It was been shaped during many short-term visits by Juan Antonio to Namur, at the department of economics, and by Paul to La Paz, at the department of Maestras para el Desarrollo of the Universidad Catlica Boliviana (UCB). It is the fruit of numerous exchanges, face to face or over the internet, through which we have developed our analysis, drawing on our respective strengths and experiences, organized the discussion, and crafted the presentation of the issues this book is about. The book has also benefited from extended discussions with colleagues, in particular during seminars that we have respectively given in Namur and La Paz. Interactions with our students, which we were fortunate to experience over so many years, have been a very strong encouragement to complete the book. This valuable support from our colleagues and students from both universities is gratefully acknowledged.

Financial support by ARES of the Specialized Master in International and Development Economics allowed Juan Antonio to teach in the programme and, ultimately, triggered the book. This support is gratefully acknowledged, as well as the support of UNamur and of the Belgian Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (FNRS), which allowed Paul to make several research stays at UCB in La Paz. The Tinker Foundation and the IIE Scholar Rescue Fund gave Juan Antonio the opportunity to discuss his experiences and ideas with colleagues and students at the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University in New York while he was a visiting professor.

Contents

aggregate demand

advanced economy

autonomous liquidity position

Banque Centrale des tats de lAfrique de lOuest (Central Bank of WAEMU)

Banque des tats de lAfrique Centrale (Central Bank of CEMAC)

central bank digital currency

central bank independence

Communaut conomique et Montaire de lAfrique Centrale (Central African Economic and Monetary Community)

Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latino Americanos (Center for Latin American Monetary Studies)

Communaut Franaise dAfrique (French African Community)

covered interest parity

Chiang Mai Initiative

consumer price index

dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (model)

East African Community

European Central Bank

Eastern Carribean Currency Union

Economic Community of West African States

emerging market economy

European Monetary Union

financial development

Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas (Latin American Reserve Fund)

forecasting and policy analysis system

Federal Reserve Board

fiscal theory of the price level

foreign exchange

gross domestic product

governments intertemporal budget constraint

high income

International Monetary Fund

international reserves

impulse response function

inflation targeting

liquidity coverage ratio

low financial development country

low income

Low income country

lower middle income

lender of last resort

money stock (narrow definition)

money stock (broad definitions)

micro-financial institutions

monetary policy rate

monetary transmission mechanism

monetary union

net domestic assets

net foreign assets

non-governmental organization

net international reserves

New Keynesian Phillips curve

non-monetary financial intermediary

optimal currency area

open market operation

overnight interbank rate

Precautionary Credit Line (IMF)

profit and loss sharing

producer price index

Rapid Credit Facility (IMF)

rational expectations

repurchase operation

real time gross settlement

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