Khalid Ikram - The Egyptian Economy, 1952-2000: Performance Policies and Issues

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The Egyptian Economy, 19522000

The Egyptian Economy describes developments in the Egyptian economy and examines the dynamics of economic policymaking during 19522000. This book analyzes the structural changes that occurred and the main thematic issues that policymakers confronted, in particular those relating to investment and productivity, the balance of payments, external debt management, fiscal policy, the financial sector and monetary policy, the labor force and employment, and poverty. It also discusses in detail the strategic and institutional issues that Egypt must address in order to sustain rapid growth in the future. This discussion covers:

Bureaucracy

Judicial system

System of taxation

Education and training

Planning and economic management

Constraints imposed by the availability of water

Costs of economic growth on the environment.

The book has been written from the point of view of a participantobserver, who has provided advice on economic policymaking both to Egyptian officials and to international organizations. Khalid Ikram a former Director of the World Banks Egypt Department and the author of a previous book on the Egyptian economy has interviewed many leading policymakers of the period, whose insights are discussed in the text. The book benefits from access to the databases of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Central Bank of Egypt, and draws on studies conducted by these organizations, bilateral and multilateral aid institutions, and Egyptian ministries and think tanks, in addition to published sources.

Khalid Ikram has worked within the Pakistan Government, World Bank, and more recently as an international consultant for the UNCTAD, OECD, GTZ, and the Asian Development Bank. His main research interests include development strategy, policies, trade, and finance. He is the author of Egypt: Economic Management in a Period of Transition (Johns Hopkins University Press).

Routledge studies in Middle Eastern economies

1 The Egyptian Economy, 19522000

Performance, policies, and issues

Khalid Ikram

The Egyptian Economy, 19522000

Performance, policies, and issues

Khalid Ikram

LONDON AND NEW YORK

First published 2006
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada
by Routledge
270 Madison Ave, New York, NY 10016

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group

This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2007.

To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledges collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.

2006 Khalid Ikram

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
A catalog record for this book has been requested

ISBN 0-203-01446-4 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN13: 978-0-203-01446-2 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN13: 978-1-134-22753-2 ePub ISBN

ISBN 0-415-36342-X

Contents

Figures

3.1	Budget deficit, 198897
3.2	Seigniorage and the inflation tax, 198897
3.3	Liquidity growth and inflation, 198897
3.4	Dollarization ratio, 198597
4.1	Average growth rates of GDP at 1992 market prices, 19652000
4.2	Structure of GDP, 19652000
4.3	GDP growth and oil prices, 19742000
4.4	Investment and savings, 19652000
4.5	Public and private investment, 19652000
4.6	Unemployment as percent of labor force, 19602000
4.7	Structure of employment, 19602000
4.8	Unemployment and inflation in Egypt (The Phillips Curve), 19822002
5.1	Current account balance, 19652000
5.2	Merchandise exports and imports, 19652000
5.3	Composition of imports, 19652000
5.4	Egypts share of world exports, 19652000
5.5	Oil and non-oil exports, 19752000
5.6	Main contributors to foreign exchange earnings, 19752000
5.7	Composition of foreign exchange earnings, 19752000
5.8	Debt service due and paid as percent of foreign exchange earnings, 19702000
5.9	Total debt outstanding and share of concessional debt, 19702000
6.1	Revenue, expenditure, and budget deficit, 19652000
6.2	External and domestic financing of fiscal deficit, 19652000
6.3	Bank financing of budget deficit, 19652000
6.4	Composition of revenues, 19652000
6.5	Development of major taxes, 19652000
6.6	Composition of tax revenues, 19652000
6.7	Composition of expenditures, 19652000
6.8	Development of government expenditures, 19652000
6.9	Domestic debt as percent of total debt, 19872000
8.1a	LFSS reported unemployment rates, 198895
8.1b	LFSS adjusted unemployment rates, 198893
8.2	Unemployment rates by age, 1986 and 1995
8.3	Unemployment rate by educational attainment, 1986 and 1995
8.4	Employment growth by sector, 196096
8.5	Employment by economic activity, LFSS 1995
9.1	Incidence of urban poverty, 197596
9.2	Incidence of rural poverty, 197596
9.3	Lorenz curves by urban/rural classification, 198296
9.4	Regional poverty, 198296
9.5	Regional poverty, 19912000
10.1	Unemployment and shortfall between potential and actual GDP, 19922002
10.2	Gross domestic fixed and public investment, 19652000
10.3	Chance of being poor by level of education, 2000

Tables

3.1	Development of privatization, 19932000
4.1	Population and urbanization, census years 194796
4.2	Demand decomposition of growth, 19652000
4.3	Labor force and employment, 19602000
4.4	Investment and savings ratios, 19652000
4.5	Factors contribution to GDP growth, 19652000
5.1	Summary balance of payments: selected years, 19652000
5.2	Composition of merchandise exports, 19652000

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