Philip E. Tetlock - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

W e are all forecasters. When we think about changing jobs, getting married, buying a home, making an investment, launching a product, or retiring, we decide based on how we expect the future will unfold. These expectations are forecasts. Often we do our own forecasting. But when big events happenmarkets crash, wars loom, leaders tremblewe turn to the experts, those in the know. We look to people like Tom Friedman.

If you are a White House staffer, you might find him in the Oval Office with the president of the United States, talking about the Middle East. If you are a Fortune 500 CEO, you might spot him in Davos, chatting in the lounge with hedge fund billionaires and Saudi princes. And if you dont frequent the White House or swanky Swiss hotels, you can read his New York Times columns and bestselling books that tell you whats happening now, why, and what will come next. Millions do.

Like Tom Friedman, Bill Flack forecasts global events. But there is a lot less demand for his insights.

For years, Bill worked for the US Department of Agriculture in Arizonapart pick-and-shovel work, part spreadsheetbut now he lives in Kearney, Nebraska. Bill is a native Cornhusker. He grew up in Madison, Nebraska, a farm town where his parents owned and published the Madison Star-Mail, a newspaper with lots of stories about local sports and county fairs. He was a good student in high school and he went on to get a bachelor of science degree from the University of Nebraska. From there, he went to the University of Arizona. He was aiming for a PhD in math, but he realized it was beyond his abilitiesI had my nose rubbed in my limitations is how he puts itand he dropped out. It wasnt wasted time, however. Classes in ornithology made Bill an avid bird-watcher, and because Arizona is a great place to see birds, he did fieldwork part-time for scientists, then got a job with the Department of Agriculture and stayed for a while.

Bill is fifty-five and retired, although he says if someone offered him a job he would consider it. So he has free time. And he spends some of it forecasting.

Bill has answered roughly three hundred questions like Will Russia officially annex additional Ukrainian territory in the next three months? and In the next year, will any country withdraw from the eurozone? They are questions that matter. And theyre difficult. Corporations, banks, embassies, and intelligence agencies struggle to answer such questions all the time. Will North Korea detonate a nuclear device before the end of this year? How many additional countries will report cases of the Ebola virus in the next eight months? Will India or Brazil become a permanent member of the UN Security Council in the next two years? Some of the questions are downright obscure, at least for most of us. Will NATO invite new countries to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP) in the next nine months? Will the Kurdistan Regional Government hold a referendum on national independence this year? If a non-Chinese telecommunications firm wins a contract to provide Internet services in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone in the next two years, will Chinese citizens have access to Facebook and/or Twitter? When Bill first sees one of these questions, he may have no clue how to answer it. What on earth is the Shanghai Free Trade Zone? he may think. But he does his homework. He gathers facts, balances clashing arguments, and settles on an answer.

No one bases decisions on Bill Flacks forecasts, or asks Bill to share his thoughts on CNN. He has never been invited to Davos to sit on a panel with Tom Friedman. And thats unfortunate. Because Bill Flack is a remarkable forecaster. We know that because each one of Bills predictions has been dated, recorded, and assessed for accuracy by independent scientific observers. His track record is excellent.