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Philip E. Tetlock - Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives

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Book:
Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Author:
Philip E Tetlock / Aaron Belkin
Publisher:
Princeton University Press
Genre:
Books / Politics
Year:
1996
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COUNTERFACTUAL THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS
IN WORLD POLITICSSponsored by the Committee on International Peace and Security
of the Social Science Research Council

COUNTERFACTUAL THOUGHT
EXPERIMENTS IN WORLD POLITICS

LOGICAL, METHODOLOGICAL, AND
PSYCHOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES

Edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin

PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY

Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street,

Princeton, New Jersey 08540

In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, Chichester, West Sussex

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Counterfactual thought experiments in world politics : logical, methodological, and psychological perspectives / edited by Philip E. Tetlock and Aaron Belkin. p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 0-691-02792-7 (cl : alk. paper). ISBN 0-691-02791-9 (pb : alk. paper)

1. World politics. 2. HistoryPhilosophy. 3. Counterfactuals (Logic). I. Tetlock, Philip. II. Belkin, Aaron, 1966-

D16.9.C645 1996

901dc20

96-6396

CIP

eISBN: 978-0-691-21507-5

Contributors

AARON BELKIN

Doctoral candidate, Department of Political Science

University of California, Berkeley

GEORGE W. BRESLAUER

Professor, Department of Political Science

University of California, Berkeley

BRUCE BUENO DE MESQUITA

Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

Stanford University

LARS-ERIK CEDERMAN

University Lecturer in International Relations, Somerville College

Oxford University

ROBYN M. DAWES

University Professor

Carnegie Mellon University

RONALD J. DEIBERT

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science

University of Toronto

JAMES D. FEARON

Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science

University of Chicago

MICHAEL P. FISCHERKELLER

Doctoral candidate, Department of Political Science

The Ohio State University

RICHARD K. HERRMANN

Associate Professor, Department of Political Science

Director, Program in Foreign Policy Analysis, Mershon Center

The Ohio State University

ROBERT JERVIS

Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Relations, Department of Political Science

Columbia University

YUEN FOONG KHONG

Fellow, Nuffield College

John G. Winant University Lecturer in American Foreign Policy

Oxford University

EDGAR KISER

Associate Professor, Department of Sociology

University of Washington

RICHARD NED LEBOW

Director, Mershon Center

Professor, Department of Political Science

The Ohio State University

MARGARET LEVI

Professor, Department of Political Science

University of Washington

JAMES M. OLSON

Professor, Department of Psychology

University of Western Ontario

NEAL J. ROESE

Assistant Professor, Department of Psychology

Northwestern University

BRUCE RUSSETT

Dean Acheson Professor of International Relations and Political Science

Yale University

JANICE GROSS STEIN

Harrowston Professor of Conflict Management, Department ofPolitical Science

University of Toronto

PHILIP E. TETLOCK

Harold E. Burtt Professor of Psychology and Political Science

The Ohio State University

MARK TURNER

Professor, Department of English

Member, Center for Neural and Cognitive Sciences

University of Maryland

STEVEN WEBER

Associate Professor, Department of Political Science

University of California, Berkeley

BARRY R. WEINGAST

Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution

Professor, Department of Political Science

Stanford University

Acknowledgments

AS THIS VOLUME ATTESTS, judging the plausibility of counterfactual arguments is a tricky business. Nonetheless, we place great confidence in the following counterfactual: if we had not received generous intellectual and financial support from a variety of colleagues and institutions, this volume would not exist.

On the financial front, we owe a special debt of gratitude to the Committee on International Peace and Security of the Social Science Research Council, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, the Institute of Personality and Social Research, the Institute of International Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, and the National Science Foundation Training Grant to the Mershon Center at the Ohio State University.

On the collegial front, our debts are even more numerous. Most important, we want to acknowledge the help given by contributors to this volume as well as the other participants in the conference on counterfactual thought experiments held at Berkeley in January 1995. Although many participants at that conference do not appear in this book, their ideas do at various junctures. We appreciate the intellectual guidance of Henry Brady, David Collier, Barry Eichengreen, Fred Greenstein, Robert Keohane, Nelson Polsby, Robert Powell, Eleanor Rosch, Brian Skyrms, and Peter Woodruff. We single out Daniel Kahneman for thanks. Although he does not appear in this volume, he had a major impact on how we now think about thought experiments.

We also want to acknowledge the constructive comments that we have received on various aspects of this project (including our introductory chapter) from Christopher Achen, Robert Bates, Alexander George, Albert Fishlow, John Gaddis, Ernst Haas, Peter Katzenstein, Deborah Larson, Elisabeth Lloyd, Scott Sagan, Paul Sniderman, and Peter Suedfeld. And we owe a debt of considerable gratitude to the numerous anonymous reviewers who examined our manuscript for both Cambridge University Press and Princeton University Press.

Shifting to the administrative dimensions of the project, we would like to acknowledge the support of the Social Science Research Council and the assistance of Steve Heydemann, Robert Latham, and the editorial staff of Princeton University Press, including Malcolm DeBevoise, Malcolm Litchfield, and Heidi Sheehan, and Cambridge University Press, in particular John Haslam. We would be terribly remiss if we did not remember the highly professional copyediting of Madeleine B. Adams and the enormous logistical, word processing, and editorial assistance that we have received on this project from Helen Ettlinger, Leslie Lindzey, and Ann Parker. Without their patience, it would have been much more difficult to orchestrate this project.

Finally, the first editor would like to acknowledge the love of his wife, Barbara Mellers, and of his son, Paul, and his daughter, Jennifer, without whom his life would be much less fun (a sound counterfactual). The second editor is grateful for the love and support of his parents, Jeff and Jane Belkin, sister, Joanna Belkin, and grandparents, Roen and Sid Phillips and Ann Simon, and the guidance and opportunities provided by James G. Blight, Mark Garrison, Jan Kalicki, Martha Weinberg, the late Richard Smoke, and my family at the Center for International Security and Arms Control at Stanford.

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