Gerald Appel - Beat the Market: Win with Proven Stock Selection and Market Timing Tools

ptg From the Library of Melissa Wong

WIN WITH PROVEN STOCK SELECTION ANDMARKET TIMING TOOLS ptg This new book by Gerald Appel follows the rich legacy he has established over the years; it is a treasure chest of valuable advice which bestows on the reader the benefit of his decades of investment experience. It receives my highest recommendation. Edward D. Dobson, President, Traders Press From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This page intentionally left blank From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg THE MARKET PROVEN STOCK MARKET TIMING From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This page intentionally left blank From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg THE MARKET PROVEN STOCK MARKET TIMING GERALD APPEL From the Library of Melissa Wong Vice President, Publisher: Tim Moore Associate Publisher and Director of Marketing: Amy Neidlinger Executive Editor: Jim Boyd Editorial Assistants: Pamela Boland and Myesha Graham Operations Manager: Gina Kanouse Digital Marketing Manager: Julie Phifer Publicity Manager: Laura Czaja Assistant Marketing Manager: Megan Colvin Cover Designer: R&D&Co Managing Editor: Kristy Hart Project Editor: Todd Taber Copy Editor: Water Crest Publishing, Inc. Proofreader: Paula Lowell ptg Senior Indexer: Cheryl Lenser Senior Compositor: Gloria Schurick Manufacturing Buyer: Dan Uhrig 2009 by Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as FT Press Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 This book is sold with the understanding that neither the author nor the publisher is engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services or advice by publishing this book.

Each individual situation is unique. Thus, if legal or financial advice or other expert assistance is required in a specific situation, the services of a competent professional should be sought to ensure that the situation has been evaluated carefully and appropriately. The author and the publisher disclaim any liability, loss, or risk resulting directly or indirectly, from the use or application of any of the contents of this book. FT Press offers excellent discounts on this book when ordered in quantity for bulk purchases or special sales. For more information, please contact U.S. Corporate and Government Sales, 1-800-382-3419, corpsales@pearsontechgroup.com.

For sales outside the U.S., please contact International Sales at international@pearson.com. Company and product names mentioned herein are the trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, in any form or by any means, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America First Printing December 2008 ISBN-10: 0-13-235917-0 ISBN-13: 978-0-13-235917-7 Pearson Education LTD. Pearson Education Australia PTY, Limited.

Pearson Education Singapore, Pte. Ltd. Pearson Education North Asia, Ltd. Pearson Education Canada, Ltd. Pearson Educacin de Mexico, S.A. de C.V.

Pearson EducationJapan Pearson Education Malaysia, Pte. Ltd. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Appel, Gerald. Beat the marketwin with proven stock : selection and market timing tools / Gerald Appel. p. cm.

ISBN 0-13-235917-0 (hbk. : alk. paper) 1. Investments. 2. 3. 3.

Portfolio management. I. Title. HG4521.A636 2009 332.6322--dc22 2008026062 From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This book is dedicated to my grandchildren,Emily, Caroline, and Alexandra,who bring so much life and love to wherever they go From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This page intentionally left blank From the Library of Melissa Wong

ptg ix From the Library of Melissa Wong Beat the Marketx ptg From the Library of Melissa Wong Contentsxi ptg From the Library of Melissa Wong Beat the Marketxii ptg From the Library of Melissa Wong Contentsxiii ptg From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This page intentionally left blank From the Library of Melissa Wong Although Beat the MarketWin with Proven Stock Selectionand Market Timing Tools has been structured to be a rather ptg straightforward and brief work, its lessons have actually been culled from the studies, experiences, and conclusions of many astute and serious students of the behavior of the stock and bond markets, as well as from my own more than forty years experience as a personal stock trader, investment advisor, and money manager for the accounts of hundreds of investors. The roster of people from whom I have learned is far too long to list in these pages, but I do want to extend my particular appreciation to Ned Davis and the staff of Ned Davis Research, Inc., who have provided so very many ideas, data, and research material to myself and to other investors over the years and who have been very generous in allowing my use of publication material in books that I have written. Martin E. Martin E.

Zweig, a legendary technical analyst, student of the market, and investment manager, has been a source of many useful concepts to myself and to so many others. Yale Hirsch remains the primary expert regarding the influences of seasonal cycles on the behavior of stocks and bonds. A bit closer to home, I would like to express my appreciation to Glenn Gortler, the Director of Research at my company, Signalert Corporation, as well as to Joon Choi, Roni Greiff Nelson, Bonnie Gortler, Joanne Quan Stein, and Arthur Appelmembers of the portfolio and research staff at Signalertfor their ideas and editorial assistance. xv From the Library of Melissa Wong Beat the Marketxvi My son, Dr. Marvin Appel, Ph.D., has emerged over the years as a pre-eminent market expert, particularly in investment strategies that may be applied to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If I have taught him anything during his development, he has more than returned the favor in the years that he and I have ptg been working together.

And, as usual, I owe no one more than I owe the mother of my children and wife of 52 years, Judith Appel. In my very first book, Winning Market Systems, written in 1971, I referred to Judy as my best investment. Now, 37 years later, she remains my very best long-term holding. Gerald Appel From the Library of Melissa Wong

Gerald Appel has, since 1973, published Systems andForecasts, a leading technical analysis publication. He is legptg endary for his work in technical analysis and market timing, including the creation of Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD), one of the fields most valuable tools. His books include Opportunity Investing, Winning Market Systems, and Technical AnalysisPower Tools for Active Investors.

His company, Signalert, with its affiliates, currently manages approximately $250,000,000 in private capital. He has trained thousands of traders through his renowned tapes, seminars, and workbooks. xvii From the Library of Melissa Wong ptg This page intentionally left blank From the Library of Melissa Wong I am going to begin this book with a promise. ptg I believe that most readers of this book will be able to complete it within two to three weeks. This work has been purposely left short of philosophy, fluff, and filler. Its content is dense with instruction, theoretical and actual performance results, tactics, and strategies that you can employ immediately.

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