Copyright
Copyright 2012 Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation
All rights reserved
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form, or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher. Requests for permission should be directed to permissions@hbsp.harvard.edu, or mailed to Permissions, Harvard Business School Publishing, 60 Harvard Way, Boston, Massachusetts 02163.
First eBook Edition: May 2012
ISBN: 978-1-4221-5852-4
To Saras D. Sarasvathy, whose research and insights remind us how we can all think and act entrepreneurially.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.
Lao-tzu, Chinese philosopher (604 BC531 BC)
So, start!
Leonard A. Schlesinger, Charles F. Kiefer, and Paul B. Brown
Our promise to you:
If you employ the handful of principles in the following pages, whatever you want will come closer within reach.
Postscript: You will notice we are not guaranteeing success. But we are guaranteeing that if you fail, you will fail quickly and cheaply, and that (as you will see) is almost as good.
Contents
Copyright
Introduction: Navigating Uncertainty
Part One
What to Do When Facing the Unknown
1 What to Do When You Cant Predict the Future
2 The Overwhelming Importance of Desire
Part Two
What to Do When You Take Action in the Face of Uncertainty
3 Act Quickly with the Means at Hand
4 Assess Your Acceptable Loss
5 Build on What You Find
6 Bring Other People Along
Part Three
How This Works in the Real World
7 View the Future Along a Continuum: When to Use Prediction and When to Use Creaction
8 Preparing for Uncertainty: How to Use Creaction at Work
9 Using Creaction with Families and Friends
10 How Creaction Can Make a Better World
Epilogue: Responses to Some Challenging Comments and Questions We Receive
Further Reading
Acknowledgments
About the Authors
Introduction
Navigating Uncertainty
Our intellectual journeyas teachers, innovators and businesspeoplewas to answer the question of how can you achieve success in an uncertain world. To find out, we looked to those who thrive best in uncertain environments: serial entrepreneurs. When we did, we learned they not only think differently, but act differently, too. Based on their experience, we constructed a step-by-step proven method to navigate through uncertain environments. Weve distilled the very essence of what makes people successful in uncertainty and show how it works for everyone, everywhere. This process has worked for us. We know it will work for you as well and, as a very pleasant byproduct, we truly believe it will make the world a slightly better place.
ARE YOU FRUSTRATED? We know we are.
Most of us prepared hard for the future we expected, and yet the future isnt working out as we had planned. Thats true if you have been laid off, are a recent college graduate who feels underemployed, a manager facing constant upheavals at work, or even if you are the boss, because you are wrestling with disruptive technologies and new competitors who seemingly come out of nowhere to upend your industry. All this is extremely confusing and unsettling.
This is not how we were told it was going to be. Growing up, we were led to believe that the future was predictable, and if we studied hard, we could obtain the work we wanted in an environment we understood, and we would live happy and successful lives.
It hasnt exactly turned out that way (even for those of us who are happy). Many of us, maybe most, are not making progress on achieving what we want.
We think the reason is pretty simple. The way we were taught to think and act works well in a predictable future, but not so much in the world as it is now.
You know the steps for dealing with a predictable universe:
- You (or your parents, teachers, or bosses) forecast how the future will be.
- You construct a number of plans for achieving that future, picking the optimal one.
- You amass all the resources (education, money, etc.) necessary to achieve your plan.
- And then you go out and make that plan a reality.
Our education and our organizations have so indoctrinated us in this way of thinking that it is more or less the only way we approach anything. But what is a very smart approach in a knowable or predictable future is not smart at all when things cant be predicted, and that fact is at the heart of the frustrations most of us feel. Things simply arent as predictable as they once were.
In a world where you can no longer plan or predict your way to success, what is the best way to achieve your goals? Its a daunting question, but todaywhen saying change seems to be the only constant has become a clich because it is trueits one everyone has to resolve.
We think this book provides an answer. It starts with the premise that the world is probably going to get more unpredictable than less, so the ways of thinking that have gotten us where we are will be even more insufficient going forward. What follows from that is that we need a new way of thinking, one that complements, not replaces, the way we were taught to reason. (Much will remain predictable and you dont want to abandon a set of skills that works well in certain situations. You just want to have new tools for new situations.) You will find that new way of acting in the pages ahead.
Specifically, we are going to give you a proven method for dealing with uncertainty, a method gleaned from studying serial entrepreneurspeople who have started two or more successful companies. Why them? Thats simple. They have mastered a process for dealing with the unknown. There is nothing more uncertain than starting at a company. Drawing on the way they approach and solve problems, we will show you:
- The best strategy and tactics to employ when the future is uncertain.
- How to minimize risk and cost in every decision you make.
- The best way to attract like-minded people to what you want to do. And
- Why Act, Learn, Build, so you can Act again is the best and most important course of action when facing the unknown.
These proven ideas work whether you are starting a new project at the office or starting your own company. In fact, they will be helpful in every part of your life. They will let you navigate uncertainty and help you achieve what you want.
We know this approach works, because we used it ourselves in creating this book. It is also the approach that is used by the universityBabson College, the worlds number-one school for entrepreneurshipof which one of us is president.
The Babson Connection
Reading one book can never be a substitute for a college education, but after you have finished this one, youll have pretty good insight into how one of our leading schools thinks (and teaches) about business.
For as long as there have been national and worldwide rankings, Babson College has ranked first in teaching entrepreneurship of all kinds.
If you look at the colleges Web site you will see that right under its mission statement (Babson College educates leaders who create great economic and social valueeverywhere) is the explanation of the strategy that allows that to happen.
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