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For the Library and Information Technology Association and the Library Administration and Management Association
Page ii
The idea for this work grew out of material originally presented at a conference entitled "Transforming Libraries: A National Conference and Exhibition on Leadership and Technology in the Information Age," October 1216, 1996, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, sponsored by the Library Information Technology Association and the Library Administration and Management Association.
Project manager: Joan A. Grygel
Cover design: Richmond Jones
Text design: Dianne M. Rooney
Composition: the dotted i in Sabon and Perpetua using QuarkXpress v. 3.32
Printed on 50-pound Victor Offset, a pH-neutral stock, and bound in 10-point cover stock by Victor Graphics
The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information SciencesPermanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Scenario planning for libraries / Joan Giesecke, editor. p. cm. "For the Library and Information Technology Association and the Library Administration and Management Association." Papers originally presented at a conference entitled Transforming Libraries: a National Conference and Exhibition on Leadership and Technology in the Information Age, Oct. 1216, 1996, in Pittsburgh, Pa. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8389-3482-X (alk. paper) 1. Library planningUnited StatesCongresses. I. Giesecke, Joan. II. Library and Information Technology Association (U.S.). III. Library Administration and Management Association. IV. Transforming Libraries: a National Conference and Exhibition on Leadership and Technology in the Information Age (1996: Pittsburgh, Pa.) Z678.S35 1998 025.1dc21 98-11027
Copyright 1998 by the American Library Association. All rights reserved except those which may be granted by Sections 107 and 108 of the Copyright Revision Act of 1976.
Printed in the United States of America.
02 01 00 99 98 5 4 3 2 1
Page iii
CONTENTS
Figures
v
Introduction
vii
Part One The Theory
1 Scenario Planning: Power Tools for Thinking about Alternatives
James King
3
2 Radar vs. Road Map: Developing Strategies through Scenario Planning in an Uncertain World
Scot Hornick and Joan Giesecke
18
3 The Story: Tips On Writing Scenario Plots
Joan Giesecke
26
4 Scenario Planning in the Learning Organization
Joan Giesecke
34
Page iv
Part Two The Application
5 Arlington County Public Libraries Look to the Future
Cathy Robinson, Andy Cincotta, Roger Qualters, and Ann Friedman
47
6 Student Technology Fee: A Case Study at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Jim Emal and Joan Giesecke
79
7 Preparing Librarians for the Twenty-First Century: Scenarios for the Future
Nancy Busch
95
Suggested Readings
115
WWW Sites of Interest
119
Index
121
Page v
FIGURES
1.1 Futuring Matrix
4
2.1 Four Possible Scenarios for a Pharmaceutical Company
21
2.2 Managing the Portfolio of Strategic Options
25
5.1 Arlington County Public Libraries Factor Ranking
53
5.2 Arlington County Public Libraries Matrix of Most-Important Elements
56
5.3 Arlington County Public Libraries Scenario Matrix
58
6.1 UNL Matrix of Uses of Technology to Enhance Student Learning
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