Kenneth L. Fisher - Debunkery: learn it, do it, and profit from it-- seeing through Wall Streets money-killing myths

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Table of Contents

FISHER INVESTMENTS PRESS

Fisher Investments Press brings the research, analysis, and market intelligence of Fisher Investments research team, headed by CEO and New York Times best-selling author Ken Fisher, to all investors. The Press covers a range of investing and market-related topics for a wide audiencefrom novices to enthusiasts to professionals.

Books by Ken Fisher

Debunkery
How to Smell a Rat
The Ten Roads to Riches
The Only Three Questions That Count
100 Minds That Made the Market
The Wall Street Waltz
Super Stocks

Fisher Investments Series

Own the World by Aaron Anderson
20/20 Money by Michael Hanson

Fisher Investments On Series

Fisher Investments on Energy
Fisher Investments on Materials
Fisher Investments on Consumer Staples
Fisher Investments on Industrials
Fisher Investments on Emerging Markets
Fisher Investments on Technology
Fisher Investments on Consumer Discretionary

FISHER INVESTMENTS PRESS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Ive always been fortunate to do something I love professionallygrapple with capital marketsand also engage seriously in my two favorite hobbies: writing and redwoods. And when the professional day is over or on the weekends, when its too dark to tramp around the woods, I enjoy turning to my typewriter. (Which has been, for a very long time now, the computer.)

This is my seventh bookand a fun one to write. Easy, too! My editor wont like me saying thisthinking easy means maybe I didnt put in much effort, so you wont get much benefit. Not true! Hopefully you will get huge benefit. What I mean by easy is these are all short lessons that are near and dear to my heart. Many are ones Ive even written on beforein different ways and formats and venuessome of which have been previously published and many of which havent. A lot are ones Ive written about before in short pieces for use by my firm. Some I havent written on but are things Ive said repeatedly to clients, in client seminars, in media interviews, etc. Others are newer but still vital core lessons I think about or apply near constantlyor advise others to think about and apply.

There were many topics I considered, but 2010 seemed a particularly good time to attack common investing myths and misperceptionsand how to debunk them. The bad 2008 bear market is still fresh for most investors. And bear markets make peoples brains go haywire like nothing but an extreme bull market. Bear markets are emotionally trying and can make folks seek to reduce the near-term pain. That can mean making a radical change to investing strategy; one that may feel better now, but may not be appropriate long term. Ironcially, it can end up hurting folks far worse than the pain they feel nowbut far down the road when its too late (or almost too late) to do anything about it. Or, folks seek the safety and comfort of crowdsfollowing rules of thumb or those things that everyone knowsand thats when you can get into real, lasting trouble (as youll see in the book). So I decided a book that directly counters common, widely held myths and misperceptions that rob folks of better long-term results was especially relevant now.

And though writing this book was easyits never really easy. Which is why Im fortunate to be graced with a huge supporting cast. Not many authors have vast amounts of smart, talented people chasing down data, confirming facts, and otherwise making sure what I say is what I meanmaking my job easier still. (Theres that word again.) Lara Hoffmans was again pulled from her normal duties writing for my firms website MarketMinder and overseeing my firms imprint with John Wiley & Sons, Fisher Investments Press, to assist me in drafting chapters, checking my edits, and running interference with the research folks to make sure all our statements were supported and factually accurate. So all I had to do was the fun part, writing.

And, as will become quickly apparent, this book is littered with data and analysis. For that, I must thank my firms tireless research team, headed by Andrew Teufelone of the brightest people you can ever meetand his fearless admirals, Bill Glaser and Mike Hanson. Contributing analysis to the book were Austin Fraser, Akash Patel, Charles Thies, and Jarred Kriz.

And then there are all those graphsnearly every chapter has one if not more. All that data had to be pulled and checked, then the chart created and formatted. Then checked and re-checked and re-checked again and reformatted again. That takes attention to detail, time, and patiencevast amounts of patience. Leading the charge was the Team Leader of my firms Research Analytics and Production team, Matt Schrader, along with analyst Jessica Wolfe. Jessica did the lions share of the graph grunt work, has a great eye for detail, and had a terrific attitude throughoutfor that I thank her heartily. Also contributing heavily were Brad Rotolo, Jason Belsky, Andrew Bates, Scott Botterman, Lindsey Skopal, Tom Holmes, and Karl Wonstolen.

Not all the graphs were data-drivenwe had some hypothetical drawings done by our in-house graphic designer, Leila Amiri. Leila also designed the cover (which I think is pretty cool), and in general is great at putting a creative spin on abstract concepts. Also helping develop cover concepts (for this and my last few books, as well as the Fisher Investments Press books) was Molly Lienesch, who heads up Branding for my firm. She has a terrific eye for detail and understands the consumer experience better than anyone I know. Maybe shes tied with Marc Haberman, my firms Chief Innovation Officer. I dont know of any other investment firm that has an Innovation departmentat least not one as deep as ours, or as sure. Marc was instrumental in helping our folks kick around titles and book concepts. And as always, Fab Ornani, our Web guru, and Tommy Romero, our head of Marketing, help get the books noticed. If the book doesnt sell, you dont have a book.

Helping pick up the slack in writing client-facing content while Lara was otherwise occupied were Aaron Anderson, Elizabeth Anathan, Jason Dorrier, Carolyn Feng, and Todd Bliman. And backing up Lara in doing fact-checking, citations, and copyediting was Evelyn Cheawho always does a top-notch job catching our goofy typos. Giving the book the legal look-over (and providing me with some good editorial feedback as well) were Fred Harring, Nicole Gerrard, and Tom Fishel.

Thanks also, as always, to my agent Jeff Herman. And I must thank the crew at John Wiley & SonsDavid Pugh, who shepherded me through my first three books with Wiley (my fourth, fifth, and sixth books)The Only Three Questions That Count (2006), The Ten Roads to Riches (2008), and How to Smell a Rat (2009). These were all New York Times best sellers (as well as hitting other best seller liststhe Wall Street Journal, BusinessWeek, USA Today, and various smaller lists) thanks in no small part to Davids fine work, and the fine work of the Wiley team. Laura Walsh has since replaced David, and working with her has been a pleasure. I must also thank Kelly OConnor and Adriana Johnson, as well as Joan ONeil, executive publisher at Wiley, who kindly lets me say whatever I want to say.

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