James A. Davis - The Logic Of Causal Order

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title	:	The Logic of Causal Order A Sage University Papers Series. No. 07-055
author	:	Davis, James Allan.
publisher	:	Sage Publications, Inc.
isbn10 | asin	:	0803925530
print isbn13	:	9780803925533
ebook isbn13	:	9780585213361
language	:	English
subject	Social sciences--Statistical methods.
publication date	:	1985
lcc	:	HA29.D335 1985eb
ddc	:	300/.1/5195
subject	:	Social sciences--Statistical methods.

The Logic of Causal Order

SAGE UNIVERSITY PAPERS Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences Series Editor: Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa Editorial Consultants Richard A. Berk, Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles William D. Berry, Political Science, Florida State University Kenneth A. Bollen, Sociology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Linda B. Bourque, Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles Jacques A. Hagenaars, Social Sciences, Tilburg University Sally Jackson, Communications, University of Arizona Richard M. Jaeger, Education, University of North Carolina, Greensboro Gary King, Department of Government, Harvard University Roger E. Kirk, Psychology, Baylor University Helena Chmura Kraemer, Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Stanford University Peter Marsden, Sociology, Harvard University Helmut Norpoth, Political Science, SUNY, Stony Brook Frank L. Schmidt, Management and Organization, University of Iowa Herbert Weisberg, Political Science, The Ohio State University Publisher Sara Miller McCune, Sage Publications, Inc. INSTRUCTIONS TO POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTORS For guidelines on submission of a monograph proposal to this series, please write Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Editor Sage QASS Series Department of Political Science University of Iowa Iowa City, IA 52242

Page 1 Series / Number 07-055 The Logic of Causal Order James A. Davis Harvard University

Page 2 Copyright 1985 by Sage Publications, Inc. Printed in the United States of America All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. For information: SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: order@sagepub.com SAGE Publications Ltd. 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. M-32 Market Greater Kailash I New Delhi 110 048 India International Standard Book Number 0-8039-2553-0 Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 85-062371 99 00 01 02 18 17 16 15 When citing a university paper, please use the proper form. Remember to cite the correct Sage University Paper series title and include the paper number. One of the following formats can be adapted (depending on the style manual used): (1)HENKEL, RAMON E. (1976) Tests of Significance. Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-004. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. OR (2) Henkel, R. E. (1976). Tests of significance (Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, series no. 07-04). Newbury Park, CA: Sage.

Page 3 Contents Series Editor's Introduction 5 1. Introduction 7 Two Variables 9 2. Using the Logic 34 Estimating Direct Effects 36 Strategies for Analysis 38 3. The Costs of Being Wrong 64 4. Summary 66 Notes 69 References 70 About the Author 71

Page 5 Series Editor's Introduction In the explosive growth of social science statistical methods, it is easy to forget that quantitative research rests on logical foundations that cut across specific techniques. Which is the dependent variable? Which variables shall we control? Would a change in X produce as much change in Y as the coefficient implies?

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