Smith - What the luck?: the surprising role of chance in our everyday lives

PRAISE FOR WHAT THE LUCK?

Smith provides examples from almost every aspect of everyday life, from sports and education to business and health, in an accessible and enjoyable exploration of the role of luck in our lives.

Library Journal

Read this book. Then give it to your family and friends. There is no other single idea that will better improve your understanding of the world, and judgment of the future, than regression to the mean.

CADE MASSEY, Professor, Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania

Gary Smiths What the Luck? alerts us to many subtle and unappreciated consequences of one of lifes great truths: it has its ups and downs.

GEORGE AKERLOF, Georgetown University, Nobel Laureate in Economics 2001

What the Luck? is a fabulous, funny, and completely accessible explanation of the pervasive misreporting and misunderstanding of what statistics really mean in common discourse. If you are interested in what is really going on in sports, gambling, genetic inheritance, and everything else that is misrepresented statistically, you will love this book. I wouldnt wait for the TV miniseries, Id take What the Luck? to bed now.

BRUCE CHAPMAN, Professor of Economics, Australian National University

The concept of regression to the mean is frequently misunderstood, and Smiths clear, understandable, and witty writing style helps him guide the reader through confusion about the role of chance and how random variations influence so many choices and perceptions of truth. Through his relatable examples, we can see through fallacies, change the way we see our lives, and learn to rely less on random chance.

WITF Harrisburg (November Book Club Pick-Of-The-Month)

This book deeply enriches readers understanding of the ubiquitous role of chance in everyday life. The book is so wonderful that I predict the authors next book will be less wonderful. Why the pessimistic prediction? This book will painlesslyeven enjoyablyteach you why.

MICHAEL MURRAY, Charles Franklin Phillips Professor, Bates College

What the Luck? is a humorous, entertaining book citing real-life examples, from areas as diverse as gambling, sports, scholastic achievement, medicine and the stock market to explain how randomness and luck are far more prevalent in our daily lives than we may realize. Reading this book also helped remind me that regression is often a more meaningful driver of stock (and bond) performance than the underlying business fundamentals. This is an important lesson for any serious investor.

MIKE SCHIMMEL, Portfolio Manager, Kayne Anderson Capital Advisors

A tremendously entertaining and revealing read quick and engrossing a must read for those who approach the world with educated insight! Two thumbs up!

SIMEON NESTOROV, CFA, Managing Director, Berkeley Square Inc.

What the Luck? is a must-read for those in the healthcare profession. We are constantly inundated with research on the latest and greatest therapy and understanding regression toward the mean can help us better interpret and apply this research to the daily care of our patients.

ROBERT SALLIS, MD, Director of Sports Medicine, Kaiser Permanente Medical Center, Clinical Professor of Family Medicine at UC Riverside School of Medicine, Past-President of the American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM), Chair of Exercise is Medicine, a joint initiative of ACSM and the American Medical Association

In clear, entertaining prose and the use of telling, useful, and even charming examples, Smith dissects one of the most fundamental principles of how the world worksand how our intuitions often fail to catch on. Anyone who wants to think more clearly and act more rationally will profit from reading this book.

TOM GILOVICH, author of How We Know What Isnt So and Professor at Cornell University

There is an infectious clarity of statistical reasoning in Gary Smiths work. His friendly, logical, systematic writing entertains and gives a confidence of membership in an inner circle as brilliant as Smith himself.

ERIC ENGBERG, Data Scientist and Software Engineer, Wells Fargo

People often underestimate the impact of luck in their lives. What the Luck? is eminently readable and entertaining, filled with colorful examples.

SEBASTIAN THOMAS, Director, Head of US Technology Research, Allianz Global Investors

The beauty of this book is it sheds light on the need for humility when one experiences good fortune, and the importance of hope after misfortune. This nuanced understanding will help readers make better decisions in all realms of their lives.

JONATHAN ABELSON, MD, radiation oncologist

Regression toward the mean is the key to the universe. Of course, learning about this is both a blessing and a curse. Once people have digested this book, they will absolutely see regression everywhere and understand its effect, but they will also be driven crazy, as you undoubtedly are, when they hear all of the unsupported and sometimes absurd explanations people cling to in order to make sense of it.

JAY CORDES, Data Scientist

Humans are prone to search and find causal drivers of the events that shape our lives. In reality, we are impacted by chance more often than we think. Professor Smith uses simple reasoning and vivid examples to help us decipher truth from fiction, thereby helping us to make better decisions.

BRYAN WHITE, Founder, Sahsen Ventures

Smith uses a wide variety of real-life examples to illustrate why conventional wisdom often fails to acknowledge that one of the most important ingredients is luck.

KARL J. MEYER, Director of Strategy, Hewlett Packard Enterprise

As a lifelong sports fan Ive always been puzzled by a phenomenon in which a team wins a championship and, after failing to repeat the next season, everyone from fans to management looks for what went wrong and begins trading players and changing strategies, thereby dooming the team to do even worse the season after. Gary Smith has solved this puzzle, and many more in all walks of life, through the concept of regression to the mean, one of the most powerful and least understood factors in how things turn out in life. You will not look at the world the same after reading this illuminating book.

MICHAEL SHERMER, publisher of Skeptic magazine, columnist for Scientific American, and author of The Moral Arc and Why People Believe Weird Things

Absorbing Gary Smiths message will help us avoid common but costly mistakes like putting too much of our wealth in investments that have little probability of out-performing the market, or expecting ourselves (or others) to perform in ways we (or they) cant, or feeling guilty for what happens that isnt really our fault. Lots of people everywhere can benefit from the principle he so clearly explains, and many of the concrete examples he uses to illustrate it will strike home.

BENJAMIN M. FRIEDMAN, William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy, Harvard University, and author, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth

What the Luck? is a tremendously entertaining and revealing read. A quick and engrossing piece of work, it is a must read for those who approach the world with educated insight!

SIMEON NESTOROV, CFA, Managing Director, Berkeley Square, Inc.

Vagaries of chance are part of our lives, whether we like it or not. What the Luck? presents serious stuff in an eminently readable and entertaining manner. Using colorful examples, it teaches humility for good fortune and hope after misfortune. A wonderful read!

CRISTIAN CALUDE, Professor of Applied Science, University of Auckland, and Giuseppe Longo, Centre Cavaills, CNRS et Ecole Normale Suprieure, and the Department of Integrative Physiology and Pathobiology, Tufts University School of Medicine