Steven E. Koonin - Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters

Praise for Unsettled

We have too many global warming booksbut this one is needed. Steven Koonin has the credentials, expertise, and experience to ask the right questions and to give realistic answers.

Vaclav Smil, distinguished professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba

Unsettled is an excellent case study on climate science, its inherent complexity and uncertainty, and a cautionary tale on how interpretive filters in the policymaking process have shaped, and sometimes misinformed, the climate policy debate. It should on be the reading list of scientists and engineers whose responsibility, as citizens, extends beyond the laboratory to communicating to a larger public often overwhelmed and confused by the media. Policymakers and politicians will find it a source of reflection for their arguments, positions, and decisions.

Jean-Lou Chameau, President Emeritus, Caltech

Essential reading and a timely breath of fresh air for climate policy. The science of climate is neither settled nor sufficient to dictate policy. Rather than an existential crisis, we face a wicked problem that requires a pragmatic balancing of costs and benefits.

William W. Hogan, professor of global energy policy at Harvard Kennedy School

Tough talk about climate politics from a statesman scientistand a vision of what will actually come to pass.

Robert B. Laughlin, professor of physics at Stanford University

Steve Koonin, the undersecretary for science under Obama, has written a very interesting and thoughtful book on climate. He documents how much of what you think you know about climate just aint so. Did you know that while the United States is now seeing many fewer cold records, absolute heat records are not increasing? Unsettled will definitely and rightly unsettle your climate thoughts, and all for the better. If we are to make trillion dollar investments, we deserve to be as well informed as possible.

Bjrn Lomborg, president of Copenhagen Consensus and visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution at Stanford University

Unsettled

Unsettled

W HAT C LIMATE S CIENCE
T ELLS U S , W HAT I T D OESN T ,
AND W HY I T M ATTERS

Steven E. Koonin

BenBella Books, Inc.
Dallas, TX

Unsettled copyright 2021 by Steven E. Koonin

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles or reviews.

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First E-Book Edition: April 2021

Library of Congress Control Number: 2020952203

ISBN 9781950665792 (trade cloth)

ISBN 9781953295248 (ebook)

Editing by Alexa Stevenson

Copyediting by Scott Calamar

Proofreading by Sarah Vostok and Dylan Julian

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For my many mentors,
who taught me the importance of scientific integrity.

CONTENTS

T he Science. Were all supposed to know what The Science says. The Science, were told, is settled. How many times have you heard it?

Humans have already broken the earths climate. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. Greenhouse gas emissions are causing all of this. And unless theyre eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, The Science says Earth is doomed.

Well... not quite. Yes, its true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. But beyond thatto paraphrase the classic movie The Princess Bride: I do not think The Science says what you think it says.

For example, both the research literature and government reports that summarize and assess the state of climate science say clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years. When I tell people this, most are incredulous. Some gasp. And some get downright hostile.

But these are almost certainly not the only climate facts you havent heard. Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn directly from recent published research or the latest assessments of climate science published by the US government and the UN:

Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century.

Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was eighty years ago.

The net economic impact of human-induced climate change will be minimal through at least the end of this century.

So what gives?

If youre like most people, after the surprise wears off, youll wonder why youre surprised. Why havent you heard these facts before? Why dont they line up with the narrativenow almost a memethat weve already broken the climate and face certain doom unless we change our ways?

Most of the disconnect comes from the long game of telephone that starts with the research literature and runs through the assessment reports to the summaries of the assessment reports and on to the media coverage. There are abundant opportunities to get things wrongboth accidentally and on purposeas the information goes through filter after filter to be packaged for various audiences. The public gets their climate information almost exclusively from the media; very few people actually read the assessment summaries, let alone the reports and research papers themselves. Thats perfectly understandablethe data and analyses are nearly impenetrable for non-experts, and the writing is not exactly gripping. As a result, most people dont get the whole story.

But dont feel bad. Its not only the public thats ill informed about what the science says about climate. Policymakers, too, have to rely on information thats been put through several different wringers by the time it gets to them. Because most government officialsand others involved in climate policy for the public and private sectorsare not themselves scientists, its up to scientists to make sure that non-scientists making key policy decisions get an accurate, complete, and transparent picture of whats known (and unknown) about the changing climate, one undistorted by agenda or narrative. Unfortunately, getting that story straight isnt as easy as it sounds.

I should know. That used to be my job.

Im a scientistI work to understand the world through measurements and observations, and then to communicate clearly both the excitement and the implications of that understanding. Early in my career, I had great fun doing this for esoteric phenomena in the realm of atoms and nuclei using high-performance computer modeling (which is also an important tool for much of climate science). But beginning in 2004, I spent about a decade turning those same methods to the subject of climate and its implications for energy technologies. I did this first as chief scientist for the oil company BP, where I focused on advancing renewable energy, and then as undersecretary for science in the Obama administrations Department of Energy, where I helped guide the governments investments in energy technologies and climate science. I found great satisfaction in these roles, helping to define and catalyze actions that would reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the agreed-upon imperative that would save the planet.