Alexander B. Downes - Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong
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- Book:Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong
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Catastrophic Success: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong: summary, description and annotation
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InCatastrophic Success, Alexander B. Downes compiles all instances of regime change around the world over the past two centuries. Drawing on this impressive data set, Downes shows that regime change increases the likelihood of civil war and violent leader removal in target states and fails to reduce the probability of conflict between intervening states and their targets. As Downes demonstrates, when a state confronts an obstinate or dangerous adversary, the lure of toppling its government and establishing a friendly administration is strong. The historical record, however, shows that foreign-imposed regime change is, in the long term, neither cheap, easy, nor consistently successful. The strategic impulse to forcibly oust antagonistic or non-compliant regimes overlooks two key facts. First, the act of overthrowing a foreign government sometimes causes its military to disintegrate, sending thousands of armed men into the countryside where they often wage an insurgency against the intervener. Second, externally-imposed leaders face a domestic audience in addition to an external one, and the two typically want different things. These divergent preferences place imposed leaders in a quandary: taking actions that please one invariably alienates the other. Regime change thus drives a wedge between external patrons and their domestic protgs or between protgs and their people. Catastrophic Success provides sober counsel for leaders and diplomats. Regime change may appear an expeditious solution, but states are usually better off relying on other tools of influence, such as diplomacy. Regime change, Downes urges, should be reserved for exceptional cases. Interveners must recognize that, absent a rare set of promising preconditions, regime change often instigates a new period of uncertainty and conflict that impedes their interests from being realized.
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Catastrophic Success
Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Goes Wrong
A LEXANDER B. D OWNES
Cornell University Press
Ithaca and London
For Lisa, Connor, and Amelia
Figures
Most frequent perpetrators of foreign-imposed regime change, 18162008
Most frequent targets of foreign-imposed regime change, 18162008
Temporal distribution of foreign-imposed regime changes, 18162008
Foreign-imposed regime changes by region, 18162008
A typology of foreign-imposed regime change
Frequencies of different types of foreign-imposed regime changes, 18162008
A diagram of the theory
Number of foreign-imposed regime changes followed by civil war and number of civil wars following regime change within a decade
Proportion of foreign-imposed regime changes followed by civil war within a decade
Annual probability of civil war onset in the decade after foreign-imposed regime change
Marginal effects of types of foreign-imposed regime change on civil war onset controlling for the effects of other variables
The effect of institutional regime change on civil war onset contingent on the targets level of economic development
The effect of institutional regime change on civil war onset contingent on the targets level of ethnolinguistic fractionalization
The effect of foreign-imposed regime change on civil war onset contingent on target concurrently losing an interstate war
Marginal effects of control variables on civil war onset
Marginal effects of types of foreign-imposed regime change after matching
Marginal effects of successful versus failed foreign-imposed regime changes
Number and percentage of foreign-imposed leaders, leader-spell data (18752004)
Number and percentage of foreign-imposed leaders, leader-year data (19192004)
Rates of irregular and regular removal for foreign-imposed leaders (leader-spell data)
Years to irregular and regular removal for foreign-imposed leaders (leader-spell data)
Kaplan Meier survivor functions for types of foreign-imposed regime change and irregular removal from office (leader-spell data)
Kaplan Meier survivor functions for foreign-imposed regime change and regular removal from office (leader-spell data)
Hazard rates of irregular removal after foreign-imposed regime change, no control variables included
Hazard rates of irregular removal after foreign-imposed regime change, control variables included
Hazard rates of regular removal after foreign-imposed regime change, no control variables included
Hazard rates of regular removal after foreign-imposed regime change, control variables included
Postgenetic matching hazard rates of irregular removal after foreign-imposed regime change (leader-spell data)
Postgenetic matching hazard rates of regular removal after foreign-imposed regime change (leader-spell data)
Number and percentage of militarized interstate disputes after foreign-imposed regime changes
Bivariate relationships between foreign-imposed regime change and the probability of militarized interstate disputes
Predicted annual probabilities of militarized interstate disputes in the decade after foreign-imposed regime change
Marginal effect of foreign-imposed regime change on similarity of United Nations General Assembly voting
Marginal effect of foreign-imposed regime change on similarity of alliance portfolios
Marginal effect of foreign-imposed regime change on probability of militarized interstate disputes after genetic matching
Marginal effect of foreign-imposed regime change on similarity of United Nations General Assembly voting after genetic matching
Marginal effect of foreign-imposed regime change on similarity of alliance portfolios after genetic matching
Tables
Successful cases of foreign-imposed regime change, 18162011
Military disintegration and the likelihood of civil war
Cases of foreign-imposed regime change followed by civil wars
Probit estimates of foreign-imposed regime change and civil war onset
Probit estimates of foreign-imposed regime change and civil war onset: interaction effects
T-tests of leadership versus institutional and restoration foreign-imposed regime changes and factors correlated with civil war
T-tests of successful versus failed foreign-imposed regime changes and factors correlated with civil war
Foreign-imposed leaders and how they left office, 18752004
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