Hirsch Jeffrey A. - Stock Traders Almanac 2017

Copyright 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

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This Fiftieth Anniversary Edition could be dedicated to none other than:

If I have seen further, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants.

Sir Isaac Newton

Yale has been a giant to us all. We have proudly stood on his shoulders, magically ridden his coattails, and humbly attempted to build upon his genius. He created this masterpiece 50 years ago and its longevity is his legacy. His iconic thinking and thought leadership will live forever. At 92 and still rocking, he continues to test our intelligence, integrity, imagination, and mettle. Mensch, mentor, enduring source of inspiration, and loving father, thank you for teaching us to strive for excellence with a keen attention to detail and a nose for behavioral changes in finance, markets, economics, and sociologynot to mention a zest for wit.

Thank you to all those who helped us research and build the Stock Trader's Almanac legacy over the years and to those readers and colleagues that inspired, discussed and debated with us.

A special thanks and acknowledgement to those below who had a profound and direct impact on the evolution, improvement and production of the Almanac:

Scott Barrie (R.I.P.), George Brooks, Judd Brown, Bob Cardwell, Joseph Childrey, Sy Harding (R.I.P.), Davida Hirsch, Leslie Hirsch, Dave Kamm, Peter Lynch, Chris Mistal, Victor Niederhoffer, John Person, Betty Ross (R.I.P.), Daniel Turov, Pamela van Giessen, Larry Williams.

We are pleased, proud, humbled, and amazed to introduce the Fiftieth Anniversary Edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.

J. P. Morgan's classic retort, Stocks will fluctuate, is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.

We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 all the gains in the market were made during November through April, compared to a loss May through October? (See page 52.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

1. How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock marketjust as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
2. How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only eight major errors since 1950, for an 87.7% accuracy ratio. (See page 16.)
3. Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

The Stock Trader's Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes investing easier because it:

1. Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
2. Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
3. Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
4. Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
5. Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.
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