Hirsch - Stock Traders Almanac 2015

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ISBN: 978-1-118-91760-2 (paper)
ISBN: 978-1-118-98831-2 (ebk)
ISBN: 978-1-118-98832-9 (ebk)

This Forty-Eighth Edition is respectfully dedicated to:

Larry is a veteran trader and a bit of a Renaissance man. He has been trading stocks and futures for over 50 years. Larry has been a dear friend and trusted colleague since the Almanac began 48 years ago. He began following the markets in 1962 and by 1965 was trading actively and writing a newsletter. Since he started in the market, Larry has been on the cutting edge of seasonal and historical market analysis and produced groundbreaking work. This year, the Market Technicians Association presented him with their highest honor, the 2014 Annual Award, citing his outstanding accomplishments in the field of technical analysis and for being a pioneer in technical analysis indicator development.

He developed his Williams %R timing tool in 1966, which is still published in major financial papers and used as a standard indicator on trading websites from MSN's Money Central to Yahoo! Finance. He has created a host of other indicators and techniques that we are all familiar with. He has written many books, including 1973's, Sure Thing Commodity Trading: How Seasonal Factors Influence Commodity Prices, the first book ever on the seasonality of commodity prices, and of course his most recent opuses: Long Term Secrets to Short Term Trading, Trade Stocks & Commodities with the Insiders, and The Right Stock at the Right Time (our Best Investment Book of the year in 2004!).

He also wrote a book, The Mountain of Moses: The Discovery of Mount Sinai, that suggests Mount Sinai is on the Arabian Peninsula, not the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. In addition, he ran for Senate twice in his home state of Montana, as well as 76 marathons, and is quite the philanthropist.

One of Jeff's fondest childhood memories is learning how to catch big rainbow trout in Montana from Larry. It's been a pleasure seeing him in recent years at several events.

Find out more at www.ireallytrade.com.

We are pleased and proud to introduce the Forty-Eighth Edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.

J. P. Morgan's classic retort, Stocks will fluctuate, is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.

We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 all the gains in the market were made during November through April, compared to a loss May through October? (See page 52.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

• How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock marketjust as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only seven major errors since 1950, for an 89.1% accuracy ratio. (See page 16.)
• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators, and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there's the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

The Stock Trader's Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes investing easier because it:

• Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
• Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
• Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
• Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
• Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping, and tax preparation.