Jeffrey A. Hirsch - Stock Traders Almanac 2019

Copyright 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved.

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey.

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ISBN: 978-1-119-52931-6 (paper)

ISBN: 978-1-119-52928-6 (ePDF)

ISBN: 978-1-119-52932-3 (ePub)

This Fifty-Second Edition is respectfully dedicated to:

Art is a Managing Director of UBS Financial Services, Inc., and is the Director of Floor Operations for UBS at the New York Stock Exchange. When he appears on CNBC, we all turn up the volume or take the TV off mute and scoot a little closer to hear what this wise, learned, and experienced Wall Street guru has to say about the market and get our daily dose of clever Wall Street repartee. Art has been on the trading floor for 50 years, so we have grown up together, so to speak.

Art has been a great friend and colleague over the years. He always has an eye on seasonality, cycles and patterns in the mix. His calm presence, wit and wisdom are a daily tonic in the rain of market commentary. We have all stood on his shoulders and learned immeasurably from him. It is a privilege and a joy to read his daily missives; they are like manna from heaven.

Once again we have the honor of introducing the Fifty-Second Edition of the Stock Traders Almanac. The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.

J. P. Morgans classic retort, Stocks will fluctuate, is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move. Nothing could be further from the truth.

We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 90% of the gains in the market were made during November through April, compared to a minor gain May through October? (See page 52.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professionals enhance profit potential. You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

• How presidential elections affect the economy and the stock marketjust as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year, with only nine major errors since 1950, for an 86.6% accuracy ratio. (See page 16.)
• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, theres the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

The Stock Traders Almanac is also an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing into a business framework and makes investing easier because it:

• Updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.
• Is a monthly reminder and refresher course.
• Alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.
• Furnishes a historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market performance.
• Supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping and tax preparation.

The WITCH icon signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH on calendar pages and alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to the expiration of equity and index options and index futures contracts. Triple-witching days appear during March, June, September, and December.

The BULL icon on calendar pages signifies favorable trading days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a particular trading day during the 21-year period January 1997 to December 2017.