Michael P Murray - Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
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Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
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The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods.
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Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
author
:
Murray, Michael P.; McDonald, Laurie L.
publisher
:
RAND
isbn10 | asin
:
0833025694
print isbn13
:
9780833025692
ebook isbn13
:
9780585220581
language
:
English
subject
United States--Armed Forces--Recruiting, enlistment, etc, Soldiers--Supply and demand--United States--Forecasting.
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
UB323.M87 1999eb
ddc
:
355.2/23/0973
subject
:
United States--Armed Forces--Recruiting, enlistment, etc, Soldiers--Supply and demand--United States--Forecasting.
The research described in this report was conducted within two RAND federally funded research and development centers: The National Defense Research Institute, sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies, Contract DASW01-95-0059; and by the Arroyo Center sponsored by the United States Army, Contract DASW01-96-C-0004.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Murray, Michael P., Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply / Michael P. Murray and Laurie L. McDonald p. cm. "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the U.S. Army by RAND's National Defense Research Institute." "MR-847-OSD/A." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2569-4 1. United StatesArmed ForcesRecruiting, enlistment, etc. 2. Soldiers Supply and demandUnited StatesForecasting. I. McDonald, Laurie L., 1955- . II. United States. Dept. of Defense. Office of the Secretary of Defense. III. United States. Army. IV. National Defense Research Institute (U.S.). V. RAND Corporation. VI. Title. UB323.M87 1999 355.2'23'0973dc21 99-43249 CIP
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page i
Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
Michael P. Murray Laurie L. Mcdonald
Prepared for the Office of the secretary of Defense United States Army
National Defense Research Institute Arroyo Center
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Page iii
Preface
Based on RAND's past body of recruiting research and on indications of increased difficulty in meeting recruiting goals, in spring 1994 the Army Chief of Staff and the Deputy Secretary of Defense asked RAND to examine recent trends in the recruiting market and their implications for meeting accession requirements. The request for assistance consisted of two parts: (1) a quick initial examination of the trends and (2) a longer-term research agenda to study the recruiting outlook in depth. The results of the preliminary examination were briefed in May 1994 and are documented in RAND report MR-549-A/OSD, Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications: Preliminary Analysis and Recommendations (Asch and Orvis, 1994). The current report presents some results from the longer-term analysis. In it, we update our econometric models of enlisted supply, and we use the results to determine if there have been important changes in the effectiveness of various recruiting inputs during the postCold War period. We also use the updated model to make predictions about the adequacy of supply in fiscal year 1997. The findings should be of interest to planners and policymakers concerned with recruiting.
Other reports produced as part of the larger research project include MR-677-A/OSD, Military Recruiting Outlook: Recent Trends in Enlistment Propensity and Conversion of Potential Enlisted Supply (Orvis, Sastry, and McDonald, 1996); MR-818-OSD/A, Estimating AFQT Scores for National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) Respondents (Kilburn, Hanser, and Klerman, 1998); and MR-845-OSD/A, Encouraging Recruiter Achievement: A Recent History of Recruiter Incentive Programs (Oken and Asch, 1997).
Page iv
The research is being conducted within the Manpower and Training Program, part of RAND's Arroyo Center, and within the Forces and Resources Policy Center, part of RAND's National Defense Research Institute. The Arroyo Center and the National Defense Research Institute are both federally funded research and development centers, the first sponsored by the United States Army and the second by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and the defense agencies.
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