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Arne Melchior - Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation: In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump

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Arne Melchior Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation: In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump
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This book analyses the fast spread of free trade agreements (FTAs) across the globe, their content and their economic impact. In the wake of Brexit and the new protectionism of President Trump, Melchior offers a timely assessment of key issues relating to FTAs.
Dividing the world into seven major regions, he analyses world trade, the globalisation of FTAs and their role within and between the regions. Using a new world trade model, he then presents new evidence on the impact of trade agreements, the value of trade, the impact of Chinas growth and the Wests industrial decline, and the role of reciprocity in trade policy. Covering rich and poor countries, commodity exporters and all of the worlds regions, he offers new and original insights about a number of pertinent issues facing todays world.

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Arne Melchior - Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation: In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation: In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump
Arne Melchior
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation: In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump

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Arne Melchior Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation In the Shadow of Brexit - photo 1
Arne Melchior
Free Trade Agreements and Globalisation In the Shadow of Brexit and Trump
Arne Melchior Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Oslo Norway ISBN - photo 2
Arne Melchior
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo, Norway
ISBN 978-3-319-92833-3 e-ISBN 978-3-319-92834-0
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92834-0
Library of Congress Control Number: 2018946237
The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Cover illustration: Sandema / Alamy Stock Photo

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG

The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Acknowledgements

Main parts of this book were written as contributions to the research project Europe in transitionsmall states in an age of global shifts (EUNOR), funded by the Research Council of Norway (project no. 238017) during 20142017. The model presented in Chap. and Appendix B was partly developed as part of the research project Trade Integration, Geopolitics and the Economy of Russia (TIGER), funded by the Research Council of Norway during 20132016 (project no. 228244). I would like to gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided by the Research Council of Norway. I thank Natalia Turdyeva and other TIGER projects participants for useful feedback when the preliminary material was presented at a project workshop at Centre for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), Moscow (21 April 2016). I also thank Natalia Turdyeva and Roman Vakulchuk for guidance in accessing regional data for Russia and Kazakhstan, respectively, and Sergei Golovan for useful advice on aspects of MATLAB programming. Parts of the material included in the book were also presented at seminars during 2017 at the University of Oslo and at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo, Norway, and at the conference on Trade and Integration in a Time of Anti-Globalisation in Malm, Sweden, on 2527 October 2017. I thank the participants at these seminars and conferences for their valuable comments. Finally, I thank the anonymous referees of Palgrave Macmillan for their useful comments on the plan for the book as well as a preliminary version of it. I also thank Laura Pacey and Clara Heathcock at Palgrave Macmillan for their excellent follow-up as well as patience when the book deadline had to be postponed for unforeseen reasons. As usual, the responsibility for remaining errors, if any, stays with the author.

Abbreviations
ACP

Africa, Caribbean and Pacific countries

AD

Anti-dumping

AfCFTA

African Continental Free Trade Area

AGOA

African Growth and Opportunity Act (US trade preferences)

ANZCERTA

Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement

BEA

Bureau of Economic Analysis (US agency)

BITs

Bilateral Investment Treaties

CBI

Caribbean Basin Initiative (US trade preferences)

CD

Countervailing Duties (WTO measure against subsidies)

CES

Constant Elasticity of Substitution

CGE

Computable General Equilibrium

COMTRADE

United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database

CTS

Consolidated Tariff Schedules (of the WTO)

DESTA

Design of Trade Agreements database

DSM

Dispute Settlement Mechanism

EAEU

Eurasian Economic Union

EBA

Everything But Arms (EU trade preferences for LDCs)

EEA

European Economic Area

EFTA

European Free Trade Association

EPA

Economic Partnership Agreements (EU trade agreements with ACP)

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization

FATF

Financial Action Task Force

FMINCON

Constrained Non-linear Minimization Algorithm in MATLAB

FSB

Financial Stability Board

FTA

Free Trade Agreement

GATS

General Agreement on Trade in Services

GATT

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GSP

Generalised System of Preferences

GVC

Global Value Chain

HM

Her Majesty

IAIS

International Association of Insurance Supervisors

ICP

International Comparison Program (mapping international price differences)

ICT

Information and Communication Technology

IIT

Intra-industry Trade

ILO

International Labour Organization

IMF

International Monetary Fund

IOSCO

International Organization of Securities Commissions

IPR

Intellectual Property Rights

ISDS

Investor-State Dispute Settlement

ITU

International Telecommunication Union

LDCs

Least Developed Countries

MAI

Multilateral Agreement on Investment

MFN

Most Favoured Nation

MRA

Mutual Recognition Agreement

NAFTA

North American Free Trade Agreement

NQTM

New Quantitative Trade Models

NTM

Non-tariff Measures

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PPP

Purchasing Power Parity

PSAs

Partial Scope Agreements (between developing countries, notified under WTOs enabling clause)

REACH

Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation of Chemicals (EU chemical regulation)

RO

Rules of Origin

RTA

Regional Trade Agreement

SACU

South African Customs Union

SBO

Substantial Business Operations (origin criterion for services)

SDT

Special and Differential Treatment

SPS

Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures

SQP

Sequential Quadratic Programming sub-algorithm in MATLAB

STRI

Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (OECD)

TBT

Technical Barriers to Trade

TFEU

Treaty of the Functioning of the European Union

TISA

Trade in Services Agreement

TPP

Trans-Pacific Partnership

TRAINS

Trade Analysis Information System (UNCTAD)

TRIMS

Trade-Related Investment Measures (WTO agreement)

TRIPS

Agreement on Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (WTO)

TSCA

Toxic Substances Control Act (US law on chemical regulation)

TTIP

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

UAE

United Arab Emirates

UNCTAD

United Nations Conference for Trade and Development

UNECE

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe

USTR

United States Trade Representative

VAT

Value Added Tax

WB

World Bank (not usual but used in appendix)

WCO

World Customs Organization

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