Micheal G. Plummer - Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements

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Methodology for Impact Assessment of Free Trade Agreements

Michael G. Plummer
David Cheong
Shintaro Hamanaka

2010 Asian Development Bank

All rights reserved. Published in 2010.
Printed in the Philippines.

ISBN 978-92-9092-197-4
Publication Stock Number RPT102843

Cataloging-In-Publication Data

Asian Development Bank.

Methodology for impact assessment of free trade agreements.

Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2010.

1. Free trade agreement. 2. Impact assessment. I. Asian Development Bank.

The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent.

ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.

By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term country in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.

ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and noncommercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express, written consent of ADB.

Note:
In this report, $ refers to US dollars.

Asian Development Bank
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Contents

List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Preface

Abbreviations

Introduction The Menu for Choice

Variety of Methods

Impacts of What and Impacts on What

Structure of the Book

References (Introduction)

Chapter 1 Theoretical Framework for Economic Analysis of Free Trade Agreements

1.1. Viners Model and Extensions

1.1.1. Viners Model

1.1.2. Extensions to Viners Model

1.2. General Equilibrium Models

1.2.1. MeadeLipsey and WonnacottWonnacott Models

1.2.2. LloydMaclaren Model

1.2.3. KempWan Theorem

1.3. Dynamic Effects of Free Trade Agreements

1.3.1. Economies of Scale and Variety

1.3.2. Impacts on Foreign Direct Investment

1.3.3. Structural Policy Change and Reform

1.3.4. Competitiveness and Long-Run Growth Effects

1.4. Theoretical Foundations for Computable General Equilibrium and Gravity Model

1.4.1. Foundations for Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

1.4.1.1. Characteristics of Agents in a Typical Computable General Equilibrium Model

1.4.1.2. Computable General Equilibrium Models of International Trade and Free Trade Agreements

1.4.1.3. Limitations of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Free Trade Agreements

1.4.2. Foundations for the Gravity Model

1.4.2.1. Gravity Models and Free Trade Agreement Assessment

1.4.2.2. Limitations of Gravity Models

1.5. Concluding Remarks

References (Chapter 1)

Chapter 2 Methods for Ex-Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements

2.1. Trade Indicators to Evaluate the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement

2.1.1. Indicators of Regional Trade Interdependence

2.1.1.1. Intraregional Trade Share

2.1.1.2. Intraregional Trade Intensity

2.1.1.3. Regional Trade Introversion Index

2.1.2. Indicators of Comparative Advantage, Regional Orientation, Trade Complementarity, and Export Similarity

2.1.2.1. Revealed Comparative Advantage

2.1.2.2. Regional Orientation

2.1.2.3. Complementarity

2.1.2.4. Export Similarity

2.1.3. Strengths and Limitations of Trade Indicators

2.2. Estimating the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement in an Individual Market

2.2.1. The SMART Model

2.2.2. Example of Motorcycle Market in the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic

2.2.3. Strengths and Limitations of the SMART Model

2.3. Computable General Equilibrium Estimation of the Potential Economic Effects of a Free Trade Agreement

2.3.1. The GTAP Model

2.3.2. Example of Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of a Free Trade Agreement: GTAP Simulation of the Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Area on Cambodia, the Lao Peoples Democratic Republic, and Viet Nam

2.3.2.1. Simulated Aggregate Effects

2.3.2.2. Simulated Sectoral Effects

2.3.2.3. Simulated Welfare Effects of the ASEAN Free Trade Area

2.3.3. Strengths and Limitations of the GTAP Model

2.4. Concluding Remarks

References (Chapter 2)

Appendix 2.1: Sources of InputOutput Tables in GTAP 7 Data Base

Appendix 2.2: Composite Regions and Correspondence with Primary Regions in GTAP 7 Data Base

Chapter 3 Methods for Ex-Post Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements

3.1. Free Trade Agreement Preference Indicators

3.1.1. Coverage Rate

3.1.2. Utility Rate

3.1.3. Utilization Rate

3.1.4. Value of Free Trade Agreement Preferences

3.1.5. Data Sources: Customs Data and Firm Surveys

3.1.6. Strengths and Limitations of Free Trade Agreement Preference Indicators

3.2. Free Trade Agreement Trade and Welfare Indicators

3.2.1. Qualitative Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion

3.2.2. Quantitative Indicators of Trade and Welfare Effects

3.2.2.1. Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade: Observed Values

3.2.2.2. Trade Volumes and Terms of Trade: Extrapolated Values with Pre-Free Trade Agreement Growth Rates

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