Daniel Byman - Confronting Iraq: U.S. Policy and the Use of Force Since the Gulf War

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The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RANDs National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-95-C-0059.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Byman, Daniel. 1967

Confronting Iraq: U.S. policy and the use of force since the Gulf War / Daniel L. Byman and Matthew C. Waxman.

p. cm.

MR-1146-OSD.

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 0-8330-2813-8

1. United StatesForeign relationsIraq. 2. IraqForeign relationsUnited States. 3. United StatesForeign relationsl989 4. United StatesMilitary policy. I. Waxman, Matthew C., 1972 II. Title.

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Confronting

U.S. Policy
and the
Use of Force
Since the
Gulf War

DANIEL L. BYMAN
MATTHEW C. WAXMAN

Prepared for the
Office of the Secretary of Defense

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

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Although Saddam Husayns Iraq has regularly defied U.S. pressure, a close look at recent history reveals that Baghdad has also often retreated in the face of U.S. threats or limited military strikes. This mixed record illustrates many of the challenges that commonly arise when confronting major regional adversaries. This report seeks to derive lessons for future confrontations with Baghdad and for coercive diplomacy in general. It examines the nature of Iraq as an adversary, U.S. objectives in the Persian Gulf region, and the historical record of recent attempts to coerce Iraq. It then assesses Iraqs vulnerabilities and concludes by drawing broader implications for successful coercion.

This assessment is intended to inform both policymakers and individuals concerned with the use of force in general and with Persian Gulf security in particular. Policymakers can draw on this assessment in judging how to better coerce Iraq and how to coerce other adversaries elsewhere in the world.

This research was conducted for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Threat Reduction within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of BANDs National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies.

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