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National Research Council BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World’s Population
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BEYOND SIX BILLION

Forecasting the Worlds Population

Panel on Population Projections

John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Editors

Committee on Population

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS

Washington, D.C.

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Ave., N.W.
Washington, D.C.20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by grants to the National Academy of Sciences from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, the United States Agency for International Development, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

Suggested citation: National Research Council (2000) Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the Worlds Population. Panel on Population Projections. John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, eds. Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

National Research Council (U.S.)

Beyond six billion: forecasting the worlds population / Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council; John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, editors.

p. cm.

ISBN 0-309-20282-5 mobi ISBN

ISBN 0-309-06990-4 (hard)

1. Population forecasting. I. Title: Beyond 6 billion. II. Bongaarts, John, 1945- III. Bulatao, Rodolfo A., 1944- IV. Title.

HB849.53 .N385 2000

304.620112--dc21

00-009983

Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet,
http://www.nap.edu

Printed in the United States of America
Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Cover: Hands, copyright The Stock Market/Don Mason, 2000, and view of the earth from space, NASA.

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academys purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

PANEL ON POPULATION PROJECTIONS

JOHN BONGAARTS

(Chair),

The Population Council, New York City

JUHA M. ALHO,

Department of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland

ALAKA M. BASU,

Division of Nutritional Sciences, Cornell University

JOHN G. CLELAND,

Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

JOEL E. COHEN,

Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University and Columbia University

KENNETH H. HILL,

Department of Population and Family Health Services, Johns Hopkins University

NICO KEILMAN,

Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway

RONALD D. LEE,

Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley

MASSIMO LIVI-BACCI,

Department of Statistics, University of Florence, Italy

DOUGLAS S. MASSEY,

Department of Sociology, University of Pennsylvania

S. PHILIP MORGAN,

Department of Sociology, Duke University

ALBERTO PALLONI,

Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison

ANNE R. PEBLEY,

School of Public Health and Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles

SHARON STANTON RUSSELL,

Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

WARREN C. SANDERSON,

Department of Economics, State University of New York, Stony Brook

THOMAS SCHELLING,

School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park

MICHAEL TEITELBAUM,

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York City

JAMES W. VAUPEL,

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

RODOLFO A. BULATAO,

Study Director

HOLLY E. REED,

Research Associate

ELIZABETH A. WALLACE,

Project Assistant

COMMITTEE ON POPULATION

JANE MENKEN

(Chair),

Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder

CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,

Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University

JOHN BONGAARTS,

The Population Council, New York City

ELLEN BRENNAN-GALVIN,

Population Division, United Nations, New York City

JOHN N. HOBCRAFT,

Population Investigation Committee, London School of Economics

F. THOMAS JUSTER,

Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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