Douglas E. Schoen - Putins Master Plan: To Destroy Europe, Divide NATO, and Restore Russian Power and Global Influence

Table of Contents

2016 by Douglas E. Schoen and Evan Roth Smith

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First American edition published in 2016 by Encounter Books, an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc., a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation. Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).

FIRST AMERICAN EDITION

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA

Names: Schoen, Douglas E., 1953 | Smith, Evan Roth.

Title: Putins master plan: to destroy Europe, divide NATO, and restore Russian power and global influence / by Douglas E. Schoen with Evan Roth Smith.

Description: New York: Encounter Books, 2016. | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2016002498 | ISBN 9781594038907 (ebook)

Subjects: LCSH: Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, 1952Political and social views. | Russia (Federation)Foreign relations. | Russia (Federation)Foreign relationsEurope, Western. | Europe, WesternForeign relationsRussia (Federation) | Russia (Federation)Foreign relationsUnited States. | United StatesForeign relationsRussia (Federation) | North Atlantic Treaty Organization. | HegemonyRussia (Federation) | Aggression (International law) | BISAC: POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. | POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Freedom & Security / International Security.

Classification: LCC DK510.766.P87 S34 2016 | DDC 327.4704dc23

LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016002498

Interior page design and composition: BooksByBruce.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Putins Plan for the Future

Russias Arsenal of Aggression

Spies, Propaganda, and Cyberwarfare

Russia, Rogue Regimes, and Terror

Russias Oil and Gas

How Russia Influences Europe

How and Why We Must Fight Back

At five in the morning on Thursday, February 27, 2014, unidentified gunmen stormed the Supreme Council of Crimea in Simferopol, the capital of Ukraines semiautonomous Crimea region. A local pro-Russian activist camped outside the Supreme Council told journalists that the gunmen didnt look like volunteers or amateurs, they were professionals. This was clearly a well-organized operation.... Who are they? Nobody knows. Its about 5060 people, fully armed. Soon, the world had a name for these uniformed but unidentified soldiers who had materialized to take control of Crimea in a matter of hours: Little Green Men.

They didnt come from Mars but from Russia, on the direct order of Russian president Vladimir Putin. Analysts who have observed Putins decadelong pattern of aggressive interference in Ukraine quickly recognized his hand in Crimeas seizure. The rapid and violent escalation of Russian military and political involvement in Ukraine opened a new chapter in Putins bloody project to reestablish Russia as a regional and global power.

Soon, it became clear to the world that the Little Green Men were Russian Spetsnaz forces, and Putin himself would eventually admit as much. As of this writing, Russian-backed separatists continue to do battle with the Ukrainian military in and around Donetsk and Lugansk, costing thousands of lives and threatening to plunge Ukraine into political, economic, and social catastrophe.

While Putins forces were still establishing control of Crimea, before most media or politicians had fully acknowledged or grasped the seriousness of Russias speedy land grab, Polands then foreign minister, Radosaw Sikorski, warned prophetically that this is how regional conflicts begin. This is a very dangerous game.

Sikorski is right. By invading Ukraine, Putin has plunged Europe into a perilous state of conflict and turmoil not witnessed since the darkest days of the Cold War. Since seizing Crimea and starting the war in eastern Ukraine, Russia has conducted cross-border raids into the Baltic States, During the Cold War, the world was lucky to avoid a nuclear war between America and the Soviet Union. We may need to be that fortunate again.

Putins ambitions are not limited to the territory of the former Soviet Union, though he has begun to question whether former Soviet states are even legally independent of Russia.

To some, Putin may seem like an unpredictable tyrant, obsessed with power, violence, and conquest, who lashes out at neighboring countries impulsively and spasmodically. We believe the truth is much more subtle, and even more formidable, than either of these characterizations: Putin is a calculating master of geopolitics with a master plan to divide Europe, destroy NATO, reestablish Russian influence in the world, and, most of all, marginalize the United States and the West in order to achieve regional hegemony and global power. And his plan is working.

While many observers are now waking up to Putins single-minded hostility in Europe and the threat he poses to security on the continent and around the world, no one has yet documented and analyzed Putins far-reaching plan, why it is so dangerous, and why the United States and its allies must take decisive steps to roll back his agenda. Putin still has defenders in Europe and America, some of whom are bought and paid for by Kremlin petrodollars and others who simply dont believe that Putin is an existential threat to the West. In this book, we intend to make it clear just how pernicious Putins plan is, and why he must be stopped.

American and European leaders have failed to respond adequately or forcefully to Putins challenge. They propose weak half-measureslike storing American tanks in Polish warehouses Yet our politicians equivocate and explain away Russias blatant pattern of internationally destabilizing military aggression.

This book is the first comprehensive attempt to systematically explain Putins global strategy, which could lead to the breakup of the NATO alliance and potentially to war with the West. The West currently has no strategy, no plan, and no tactics to confront Putins offensive other than limited economic sanctions and token gestures.

We are neither alarmists nor alone in our concern over Putins aggression and the damage he has done to Europes future. Thomas Friedman, remarking on how quickly the situation in Europe has deteriorated, asks rhetorically, Did someone restart the Cold War while I was looking the other way?

There is no shortage of evidence that Russia poses a clear and imminent threat to the West and its allies, to Western values, and to liberal democracy in general. To be sure, the Poles and Lithuaniansalong with the Estonians, Latvians, Bulgarians, and Romaniansunderstand this threat, which is why theyre urging America to station heavy military equipment on their territory. No warehoused battle tank or unused artillery piece will deter a Russian strike on these countries. Only real consequences for Russia, a more robust American presence in Eastern Europe, and clearheaded, decisive Western leadership can halt Russian aggression.