2014 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan
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FIRST AMERICAN EDITION
LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Schoen, Douglas E., 1953 , author.
The Russia-China axis: the new cold war and Americas crisis of leadership / by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-1-59403-757-3 (ebook) 1. United StatesForeign relations21st century. 2. United StatesForeign relations administration21st century. 3. National securityUnited States. 4. Russia (Federation)Foreign relationsChina. 5. ChinaForeign relationsRussia (Federation) 6. World politics20052015. I. Kaylan, Melik, 1962 , author. II. Title.
JZ1480.S358 2014
327.47051dc23
2014002441
W e wrote most of this book before the recent, unfolding events in Ukraine, as well as before further developments confirming the existence of a Russian-Chinese alliance. These events and others, in our view, only confirm the validity and relevance of our arguments, but we offer this foreword as a more current take on the state of affairs as we go to press (2014).
Now Russia-China cooperation is advancing to a new stage of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. It would not be wrong to say that it has reached the highest level in all its centuries-long history.
VLADIMIR PUTIN
[Russias and Chinas] enhanced partnership marks the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER
The Sino-Soviet rift that brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war in the 60s has been healed rather dramatically.
STROBE TALBOTT
The echoes of the non-aggression pacts of the 1930s get louder in this age of American retreat.
WALL STREET JOURNAL
If not letting America have its own way is Mr. Obamas objective, he is an unparalleled foreign-policy success.
JOHN BOLTON
T his will be the biggest construction project in the world for the next four years, without exaggeration, Vladimir Putin said
The two leaders were celebrating the signing of a 30-year, $400 billion natural-gas deal between their countriesthe biggest in the history of the natural-gas industry. Under the terms of the deal, Russia would supply the Chinese with natural gas for the first time38 billion cubic meters of gas per year, through pipelines and other massive infrastructure investments. The Chinese would gain a major new source of energy, and a cleaner-burning fuel, in a country facing major pollution problems. Russia would acquire a massive new customer base for its gas, at a time when Europe seeks to diversify from Russian sources. The deal, Putin said, was an epochal event in the relationship between the two nations. For his part, President Xi, always the less voluble of the two leaders, spoke of expanding commerce with Russia. We are determined that trade between our countries will reach $100 billion by 2015, he said. Moscow hopes to double that figure by 2020.
The agreement had been in the works for a decade, but some commentators saw it solely in the context of a current crisis: the Western reaction against Russia after its illegal annexation of Crimea in Ukraine, and the threat that war might break out between Russia and Ukraine. The crisis in relations with the West over Ukraine has made ties to Asia, and particularly relations with its economic engine, China, a key strategic priority, the New York Times asserted, discussing Putins interest in China.
That sounded perfectly logical. It was also perfectly wrong.
The truth is, Putins trip to Shanghai was only the latest evidence of an unfolding alliance between Russia and China that most observers are only now starting to acknowledge. The gas deal was so momentous that it would have been impossible to ignore; but the signs of Russian and Chinese collaboration are everywhere, and they have been mounting for more than a decade.
Indeed, Putin has turned to China for financing, trying to roll back limits on Chinese investment in the Russian economy in the hope of luring cash into industries from housing to infrastructure to natural resources. Russia seeks Chinas help to build a bridge to the Crimean peninsula.
This expanding trade is part of a larger story: Russia and China, once Communist adversaries during the Cold War, now increasingly act in concert. Beijing tacitly supported Russian moves in Crimea by abstaining from a vote in the United Nations, even though Moscows actions violated a stated core principle of Beijings foreign policy: non-interference. The two countries also lined up on the same side at the UN regarding the Syrian civil war.
Militarily, the two nations are cooperating and collaborating like never before. In May 2014, the Russian and Chinese navies held large-scale joint drills in the East China Seasending a message, most experts felt, to Japan, which has found itself in increasing tension with Beijing. Moscow and Beijing have found advantages in working together to diminish U.S. influence and create greater room for them to pursue international economic and strategic interests, Brian Spegele and Wayne Ma noted in the Wall Street Journal. Mr. Putin is widely depicted in Chinese official media as a powerful leader unafraid to take on the West.
Thats not how the Chinese view American leaders, to put it mildly.
In different ways, Russia and China also effectively tolerate, and even facilitate, the interests and goals of rogue nationsIran, North Korea, Syria, and others. They use their political influence to assist these nations efforts to procure nuclear power or weaponry, to avoid international punishment for egregious human-rights abuses, and to prop up anti-Western dictators and even terrorist groups. Despite lingering differences and suspicions, Russia and China have become both newly aggressive in their own spheres and newly cooperative as partners and allies. They have forged a powerful new alliance that marks, as Charles Krauthammer rightly suggests, the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Put simply, this coalition has the potential to permanently and fundamentally alter international relations. It was envisioned as, and it has functioned as, a counterweight to liberal democracy generally and the United States specifically. The unipolar model of the world order has failed, Putin says, referring to what he sees as American hegemony. Today this is obvious to everyone. The Russia-China alliancewe call it a new Axisalready possesses extraordinary power, as is clear not just with new economic and trade agreements and military cooperation but also in the areas of nuclear proliferation and cyber warfare. Individually and together, Russia and China seek to undermine the social, economic, and political framework of democratic societies and our alliances in a way that has yet to be fully understood.