Michael D. Swaine - Americas Challenge: Engaging a Rising China in the Twenty-First Century

2011 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Swaine, Michael D.

Americas challenge : engaging a rising China in the twenty-first century / Michael D. Swaine.

p. cm.

Includes .

ISBN 978-0-87003-257-8 (pbk.)ISBN 978-0-87003-258-5 (cloth)ISBN 978-0-87003-344-5 (e-book)1. United StatesForeign relationsChina. 2. ChinaForeign relationsUnited States. 3. ChinaForeign relationsAsia. 4. AsiaForeign relationsChina. 5. United StatesForeign relationsAsia. 6. AsiaForeign relationsUnited States. 7. ChinaStrategic aspects. 8. AsiaStrategic aspects. I. Title.

JZ1480.A57C6 2011a

327.73051dc23

2011018889

Cover Design by Mission Media

This book began its life as a chapter I wrote in 2008 for a volume in the Strategic Asia series of annual monographs edited by my friend and colleague Ashley J. Tellis and published by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). That chapter, Managing China as a Strategic Challenge, in Ashley J. Tellis, Mercy Kuo, and Andrew Marble (eds), Strategic Asia 200809: Challenges and Choices (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2008), 71105, was the product of a considerably longer draft that the editors of Strategic Asia wisely rejected as exceeding our space limitations. However, rather than let all that additional work go to waste (!), I resolved to turn the manuscript into a broader report on U.S. policy toward China, thinking such a task would require at most a few weeks or a couple of months. Three years later, here is that report, more comprehensive, certainly more detailed, and hopefully more analytical and probing than originally anticipated. This more ambitious work emerged as it became apparent to myself and others that it had the potential to be the first extensive study of the many new and in some ways more daunting policy challenges that China poses for the United States in the twenty-first century. I hope that potential has been realized. But that is for the reader to judge.

An undertaking of this size would not have been possible without the steadfast efforts and prodigious talents of many individuals. First and foremost among them are a coterie of research assistants, beginning with Stephanie Renzi (formerly of the NBR), and extending through three tenures of Carnegie Junior Fellows associated with the China (now Asia) Program: Ali Wynne, Kevin Slaten, Tiffany Ng, Weilu Tan, and Rachel Esplin Odell. Usually serving for a one year period, each of these highly capable college graduates devoted many long hours and applied seemingly endless reservoirs of creative energies to what at times seemed like a never-ending effort. Their contributions involved locating and often summarizing thousands of sources, creating hundreds of footnotes, providing invaluable assistance for the seemingly endless updates required over a three year period, and offering countless suggestions for improvement in structure and content. Jessica Chen, an unpaid assistant during part of 2010, also provided important research support. I owe each of these talented individuals a huge debt of gratitude. I am particularly indebted to Tiffany and Rachel. The former was instrumental in the production of the first full rough draft and the latter provided invaluable assistance in producing the final, revised draft sent to the Carnegie Publications Department. The term research assistant does not adequately encompass their contribution. In many cases, they helped to shape my thoughts and analysis on many issues.

I am also indebted to several colleagues who read parts or all of the draft at various points in its production. Excellent comments and suggestions were provided by three formal reviewers: Robert Sutter of Georgetown University, Alice Miller of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and Aaron Friedberg of Princeton University. Several colleagues read parts of the manuscript, in many cases applying their particular expertise to individual chapters. These included Kenneth Lieberthal, Philip Saunders, Dennis Blasko, Bernard Cole, Albert Keidel, Yukon Huang, Pieter Bottelier, and Mike Mochizuki. I incorporated their corrections, additions, and assessments wherever possible. Finally, I am deeply appreciative of the insights and observations provided by over fifty current and former U.S. policy practitioners whom I interviewed at various times during the course of my research, from 20082010. Their real-world experiences were invaluable to the analysis presented in in particular. In the end, however, I alone am responsible for what is contained herein.

Finally, I would like to thank Ilonka Oszvald, the senior manager of the Carnegie Publications Department, and her very able staff for expediting the production of this book.