Ganguly Sumit - India, Pakistan, and the Bomb: Debating Nuclear Stability in South Asia

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India, Pakistan, and the Bomb

CONTEMPORARY ASIA IN THE WORLD

Contemporary Asia in the World

DAVID C. KANG AND VICTOR D. CHA, EDITORS

This series aims to address a gap in the public policy and scholarly discussion of Asia. It seeks to promote books and studies that are on the cutting edge of their respective disciplines or in the promotion of multidisciplinary or interdisciplinary research but that are also accessible to a wider readership. The editors seek to showcase the best scholarly and public policy arguments on Asia from any field, including politics, history, economics, and cultural studies.

Beyond the Final Score: The Politics of Sport in Asia, Victor D. Cha, 2008
The Power of the Internet in China: Citizen Activism Online, Guobin Yang, 2009
China and India: Prospects for Peace, Jonathan Holslag, 2010

Columbia University Press
Publishers Since 1893
New York Chichester, West Sussex
cup.columbia.edu
Copyright 2010 Columbia University Press
All rights reserved
E-ISBN 978-0-231-51282-4

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Ganguly, umit.
India, Pakistan, and the bomb: debating nuclear stability in South Asia /
umit Ganguly and S. Paul Kapur.
p. cm. (Contemporary Asia in the world)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-231-14374-5 (cloth: alk. paper) ISBN 978-0-231-51282-4 (ebook)
1. Nuclear arms controlIndia. 2. Nuclear arms controlPakistan. 3. Nuclear nonproliferationIndia. 4. Nuclear nonproliferationPakistan. 5. Security, InternationalIndia. 6. Security, InternationalPakistan. 7. IndianForeign relationsPakistan. 8. PakistanForeign relationsIndia. I. Kapur, S. Paul. II. Title. III. Series.

JZ5665.G36 2010
327.1'7470954dc22

2009030578

A Columbia University Press E-book.
CUP would be pleased to hear about your reading experience with this e-book at .

References to Internet Web sites (URLs) were accurate at the time of writing. Neither the author nor Columbia University Press is responsible for URLs that may have expired or changed since the manuscript was prepared.

To the memory of my father, Romendranath Ganguly
umit Ganguly

For I. L. K.

S. Paul Kapur

Contents

umit Ganguly: I would like to acknowledge the thoughtful comments of Jack Snyder on an early version of this work. The usual caveats apply.

Anne Routon proved to be a most patient, supportive, and diligent editor.

Portions of the book appeared as Nuclear Stability in South Asia, in the fall 2008 issue of International Security. I thank the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press for permission to reuse that material here.

Paul Kapur is not merely a coauthor but a good friend, reliable colleague, and thoughtful critic.

S. Paul Kapur: Anne Routon encouraged us to undertake this project and guided it expertly through the publication process.

Stanford Universitys Center for International Security and Cooperation provided me with an ideal intellectual environment while I worked on the manuscript. I thank Scott Sagan, Lynn Eden, and the rest of the center for their support.

Portions of the book appeared as Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia, in the fall 2008 issue of International Security. I thank the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press for permission to reuse that material here.

Jude Shell and Laura Thom provided excellent research assistance.

umit Ganguly was a first-rate intellectual opponent, outstanding colleague, and good friend throughout this project.

Finally, I am grateful to my family for their unflagging support.

The views that I express in this book are mine alone and not necessarily those of the Department of Defense.

ballistic missile defense	BMD
Bharatiya Janata Party	BJP
Federally Administered Tribal Areas	FATA
gross domestic product	GDP
Indian Air Force	IAF
integrated battle groups	IBGs
Jaish-e-Mohammed	JeM
Jammu and Kashmir	J&K
Lashkar-e-Toiba	LeT
line of control	LOC
Northwest Frontier Province	NWFP
peaceful nuclear explosion	PNE
Students Islamic Movement of India	SIMI
Subterranean Nuclear Explosions Project	SNEP
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons	NPT

I ndias and Pakistans nuclear tests of May 1998 put to rest years of speculation as to whether the two countries, long suspected of developing covert weapons capabilities, would openly exercise their so-called nuclear option. The dust had hardly settled from the tests, however, when a firestorm of debate erupted over nuclear weapons regional security implications. Optimistic observers argued that nuclearization would stabilize South Asia by making Indo-Pakistani conflict prohibitively risky. Pessimistic observers maintained that, given India and Pakistans bitter historical rivalry, as well as the possibility of accident and miscalculation, proliferation would make the subcontinent more dangerous. The tenth anniversary of the tests offered scholars an opportunity to revisit this issue with the benefit of a decade of hindsight. What lessons did the intervening years hold regarding nuclear weapons impact on South Asian security?

Answering this question is important not simply from an academic standpoint; it has significant real-world implications. South Asia has emerged as a major player in international affairs, thanks in large part to its rapidly growing economy. India, which had been plagued by chronic underdevelopment for most of its history, has in recent years enjoyed GDP growth of approximately 8 percent. The country has become an important force in the information technology sector, a major source of skilled labor, and a burgeoning market for foreign exports. Developments in Pakistan will have especially serious implications for coalition efforts to rout the Taliban from Afghanistan and stabilize that country. Given these economic, demographic, strategic, and diplomatic factors, the international community has a significant stake in stability in the South Asian region.

Unfortunately, the subcontinents history has been far from stable. Independent India and Pakistan emerged out of a bloody partition that left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. The two countries then endured decades of hostility, including four wars and an ongoing conflict in Kashmir between Indian security forces and Pakistan-backed insurgents. Such a violent relationship, when combined with nuclear weapons, could prove to be a combustible mix. This danger makes proliferations impact on the region an even more urgent subject for study.

Finally, South Asias experience with nuclear weapons may offer lessons that are applicable well beyond the region. Current analyses of nuclear proliferations likely effects are based largely on arguments drawn from Cold War history. But future proliferators such as North Korea or Iran may not closely resemble the United States or the Soviet Union. Indeed, they may have more in common with countries like India and Pakistan than with the two superpowers. If this is the case, then a careful study of nuclear weapons impact on South Asia can help us anticipate their likely effects on future proliferators elsewhere around the globe. Although we do not explicitly discuss states such as Iran and North Korea, the basic principles underlying our arguments can be applied to them.

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