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Sumit Ganguly - Mending Fences: Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in South Asia

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Mending Fences: Confidence- and Security-Building Measures in South Asia
Author:
Sumit Ganguly
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Routledge
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Year:
2021
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Mending Fences

First published in 1996 by Westview Press

Published in 2021 by Routledge

605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN

Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Notice:

Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.

A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress.

ISBN 0-8133-8995-X

ISBN 13: 978-0-3670-1490-2 (hbk)

ISBN 13: 978-0-3671-6477-5 (pbk)

DOI: 10.4324/9780429044762

Contents

, umit Ganguly and Ted Greenwood

PART ONE

The Record of Conflict

1 Conflict, Cooperation, and CSBMs with Pakistan and China: A View from New Delhi, Kanti P. Bajpai

2 Conflict between Pakistan and India: A View from Islamabad, Shireen M. Mazari

3 Sources of Conflict between China and India as Seen from Beijing, Rosemary Foot

4 Past Attempts at Mediation and Conflict Prevention in South Asia: Would CSBMs Have Made a Difference? umit Ganguly

PART TWO

Experience with CSBMs Elsewhere

5 Experience from European and U.S.-Soviet Agreements, Ted Greenwood

6 Arab-Israeli CSBMs: Implications for South Asia, Mark A. Heller

PART THREE

CSBMs in South Asia

7 Mutual Security Pledges and Prospects for a Nonproliferation Regime, Neil Joeck

8 Transparency Measures, Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema

9 Military Postures, Risks, and Security Building, Jasjit Singh

10 Crisis Management and Confidence Building, C. Raja Mohan

11 Prerequisites for Success, John Sandrock

Part One The Record of Conflict
1. 1 Conflict, Cooperation, and CSBMs with Pakistan and China: A View from New Delhi
2. 2 Conflict between Pakistan and India: A View from Islamabad
3. 3 Sources of Conflict between China and India as Seen from Beijing
4. 4 Past Attempts at Mediation and Conflict Prevention in South Asia: Would CSBMs Have Made a Difference?
Part Two Experience with CSBMs Elsewhere
1. 5 Experience from European and U.S.-Soviet Agreements
2. 6 Arab-Israeli CSBMs: Implications for South Asia
Part Three CSBMs in South Asia
1. 7 Mutual Security Pledges and Prospects for a Nonproliferation Regime
2. 8 Transparency Measures
3. 9 Military Postures, Risks, and Security Building
4. 10 Crisis Management and Confidence Building
5. 11 Prerequisites for Success

viii
ix

Guide

Acknowledgments

The original idea for this project grew out of a series of lunchtime conversations at Columbia University. Relying on our respective intellectual backgrounds and professional interests, we came to the conclusion that lessons and propositions about CSBMs derived from other regions of the world, notably Western Europe and the Middle East, could be usefully applied to South Asia. We found prompt research support for the project from George Perkovich, the director of the Secure Society Program at the W. Alton Jones Foundation in Charlottesville, Virginia.

The assistance and cooperation of a range of other individuals and organizations made this project possible. Two individuals deserve particular mention for their unstinting efforts to organize the meetings in New Delhi and Islamabad, at which early drafts of this books chapters were presented as papers: Rajesh Rajagopalan, a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the City University of New York, and Nazir Husain, Assistant Professor of International Relations at Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad. We are grateful for the assistance, with a myriad of issues from arranging visas to providing background briefings, provided by Indian and Pakistani consulates in New York City, the Ministries of External and Home Affairs in New Delhi, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad, and the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) bureau of the Pakistan army in Lahore. Finally, without the tireless efforts of Trad Nagle, this book would not have been completed. To her our heartfelt thanks.

umit Ganguly

Ted Greenwood

Mending Fences

Introduction: The Role and Prospects of CSBMs in South Asia

umit Ganguly and Ted Greenwood

DOI: 10.4324/9780429044762-1

Few regions of the world have been as unaffected by the end of the cold war as South Asia. The region was rife with intrastate violence and fraught with the possibilities and all too often the reality of interstate violence while the cold war raged around it; the same is true today. During the twenty-five years immediately after British India gave birth to the independent states of India and Pakistan, South Asia witnessed four interstate warsthree between India and Pakistan (194748, 1965 and 1971) and one between India and China (1962). Since then, there have been no further wars, but confrontations, crises, incidents, and low-level interstate violence have been intermittent from 1947 to the present.

Sino-Indian relations remained strained from the 1962 war until recently. During the 1965 Indo-Pakistani conflict, for example, the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) issued an ultimatum to India threatening offensive action unless it dismantled certain fortifications along the Sino-Indian border and returned several hundred sheep and a certain number of yaks that had been putatively misappropriated.

Several crises have also punctuated Indo-Pakistani relations. The most notable recent ones arose from mutual misperceptions of intent stemming from Indo-Pakistani military exercises in 1987 and Indias concerns over Pakistans support for the insurgency in the Indian-held portion of Kashmir in 1990.

Despite this dismal history of conflict and discord, the Sino-Indian and Indo-Pakistani relationships have not been bereft of cooperative efforts and endeavors. Both Indian and Pakistani armed forces observed tacit and explicit constraints on the extent and targets of their attacks during all three Indo-Pakistani conflicts. Both sides did not bomb population centers, avoided attacking irrigation facilities such as dams and barrages and, more generally, limited the use of air power in certain contexts. Furthermore, they adhered to the Geneva Conventions in the treatment of prisoners of war despite the popular passions that surrounded the conflicts.

Given this history of both conflict and cooperation, can the adoption of confidence-and security-building measures (CSBMs) that have been used successfully in other regional contexts have any relevance to the situation in South Asia? That is the central question on which this volume is intended to shed light. CSBMs are devices that are designed to serve one or more of four purposes: 1) providing mutual security pledges; 2) providing transparency between the military establishments of hostile states in order to reduce the possibilities of inadvertent conflict and to provide warning of and thereby deter impending attack; 3) managing dangerous and potentially dangerous military activities; and 4) crisis management.

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