Jonathan D. Pollack - Preparing for Korean unification: scenarios & implications
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Preparing for Korean unification: scenarios & implications
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This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy respones.
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Preparing for Korean Unification : Scenarios and Implications
author
:
Pollack, Jonathan D.; Lee, Chung Min.
publisher
:
RAND
isbn10 | asin
:
0833027212
print isbn13
:
9780833027214
ebook isbn13
:
9780585243511
language
:
English
subject
Korean reunification question (1945- )
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
DS917.444.P65 1999eb
ddc
:
951.904
subject
:
Korean reunification question (1945- )
The research described in this report was sponsered by the United States of Army, Contract No. DASW01-96-C-004.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Pollack, Jonathan D. Preparing for Korean unification : scenarios and implications/ Jonathan D. Pollack, Chung Min Lee. p. cm. "Prepared for the U.S. Army by RAND's Arroyo Center" "MR-1040-A." Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2721-2 1. Korean reunification question (1945- ). I. Lee, Chung Min II. Title. DS917.444.P65 1999 951.904-dc21 99-13282 CIP
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not neccessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrival) without permission in writing from RAND.
Cover design by Pete Soriano
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H. St.,N.W., Washinington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page i
Preparing For Korean Unification
Scenarios & Implications
Jonathan D. Pollack
Chung Min Lee
Page iii
Preface
If and when Korean unification occurs, it will constitute one of the decisive strategic changes in Northeast Asia since the outbreak of the Korean conflict nearly half a century ago. Depending on how various political, military, economic, and regional factors come into play, the outcome of the unification process could range from relatively manageable endgames to highly problematic and violent ones. Managing the results of the unification process will also usher in major new challenges for the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the U.S. Army.
This report evaluates four alternative unification scenarios, each with corresponding characteristics, potential indicators, variations, and operational implications for the Army. We have labeled these scenarios according to their predominant characteristics: (1) integration and peaceful unification; (2) collapse and absorption; (3) unification through conflict; and (4) disequilibrium and potential external intervention. By describing the major dimensions of each scenario, we can identify some of the policy and operational challenges that U.S. and ROK security planners could face under each outcome.
The findings in this report summarize and integrate the results of a research project on "Korean Unification: Implications for the U.S. Army," sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army, and conducted in RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy and Doctrine Program. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army.
Page v
Contents
Preface
iii
Figures
vii
Tables
ix
Summary
xi
Acknowledgments
xix
Chapter One Introduction
1
The Changing Peninsular Security Environment
2
The Roles of Japan, China, and Russia
12
Implications for U.S. and ROK Defense Planning
18
South Korea's Economic Crisis and Its Security Ramifications
21
Chapter Two The North Korean Conundrum
27
Pyongyang's Deepening Crisis
27
The Strategic Consequences of North Korea's Economic Decline
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