Devon Powers - On Trend

ON

TREND

ON

TREND

THE BUSINESS OF FORECASTING THE FUTURE

DEVON POWERS

A version of chapter 2, Thinking in Trends, was previously
published as Devon Powers, Thinking in Trends: The Rise
of Trend Forecasting in the United States, Journal of Historical
Research in Marketing 10, no. 1 (2018): 220.

2019 by the Board of Trustees
of the University of Illinois

All rights reserved

Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from
the Library of Congress

ISBN 978-0-252-04287-4 (cloth : alk.)

ISBN 978-0-252-08469-0 (paper : alk.)

ISBN 978-0-252-05173-9 (ebook)

Dedicated to Tonya Janell Powers, 19712017

Why write a book? All authors have at some point or another asked themselves this question. Books are arduous, impudent, ego-crushing. Books can never do all you wish them to do, and some sharp reader out there will pinpoint that and tell you. And there are just so many books in so many placeson library shelves and in bookstores, on ever-lengthening wish lists, in piles upon unread piles on nightstands. But write this book I did, and I am excited to share it with you. I wrote it because I want to live in a world where books matter, so I have written a book that matters to me and that I humbly hope comes to matter to you.

This book would not have come into being were it not for the wonderful people who populate my world, some of whom I knew long before this project and some of whom I came to know through it. Im especially grateful to the seventy-two forecasters and futurists I interviewed: they invited me to their offices and conferences, talked to me on Skype, answered my emails at length, and otherwise allowed me to get a picture of the work that they do. In addition to these people, Susan Choi, Tessa Cramer, Ben Grinspan, and Maarten Leyts work in and around trends and provided invaluable knowledge, connections, insight, and support at various stages in the process. Thank you for answering my questions and teaching me the right ones to ask.

I visited several libraries for archival materials, including the New York Public Library; the Columbia Rare Books Collection; Harvards Baker Library; the Hagley Library in Wilmington, Delaware; and the Hoover Institution at Stanford. I am grateful to the librarians and archivists who helped me during those trips. Parts of this book were vetted at several scholarly gatherings, including the 2015 Culture45 conference at the University of Iowa, the Society for the History of Recent Social Science conference in 2016 and 2017, the 2016 US Intellectual Historians conference, and the International Communication Association conferences in 2017 and 2018. I also delivered chapters as lectures at the University of Michigan and the University of WisconsinMadison and gave a version of the conclusion at the PSFK CXI 2018 conference in New York City. Thank you to the audiences who listened to, read, and critiqued my work in those venues.

Danny Nasset at the University of Illinois Press brought enthusiasm and vision to this project from the very first moment I met him. He got what I wanted to do and gave me the time and freedom to pursue it. Since then, I have had the pleasure of working with many wonderful professionals at UIP, including Dustin Hubbart, Kevin Cunningham, Roberta Sparenberg, and Jennifer Argo. I would also like to mention Mary M. Hill, who improved this book through eagle-eyed copyediting; Jennifer Ferris, whose company, Kelsey Transcripts, transcribed the bulk of the interviews; and Kelly Burch, who deftly handled the index. To them and everyone else who worked toward making this book a reality, I send my sincerest gratitude.

Thank you to my colleagues, friends, and support system within Klein College at Temple University, including my deans, David Boardman and Deb Cai; Don Heller; Patrick Murphy; Brian Creech; Heather LaMarre; Edward Fink; Fabienne Darling-Wolf; Adrienne Shaw; Madga Konieczna; Tricia Jones; Soomin Seo; and all my colleagues in the Department of Advertising and Public Relations. Thank you also to Osei Appiah for hiring me, even though we never got the chance to work together.

At crucial moments during the writing process I had stimulating and encouraging conversations with a number of scholars whom I admire: William Baker, Derek Valiant, Andr Brock, Andr Carrington, Lonny J. Avi Brooks, Fred Turner, Tarleton Gillespie, and Craig Calhoun. The anonymous reviewers who read and critiqued this manuscript made it invaluably richer, and I am grateful for their generosity.

Three stupendous women read most or all of this manuscript as I was developing it. Melissa Aronczyk and I basically share a brain, and she was always on call to answer questions, quickly vet ideas, or slog through early chapter drafts. Stephanie Schulte has been my academic twin since 2009, and her wisdom, perspective, and friendship are evident throughout this book. Jessa Lingel, who was working on a book at the same time I was, agreed to exchange manuscripts and gave a thorough and very eye-opening read that helped me to crystallize several important arguments. Everyone, please go out and get her book too!

I am lucky to have a tremendous community of sharp, interesting, and supportive friends who have asked how my writing was going, sent me links they found about futurism, had dinner with me while I went on and on about some bizarre thing that I just learned, put me up when I came to their city, and generally made my life full as I wrote. Thanks to Belkys Garcia, Nadir Souirgi, Laurel Harris, Bridget McHenry, Christa Chatfield, Mika Johnson, Jamie Todd, Nina Hernandez, Adam Lewis, Marion Wrenn, Rory Arnold, Tony Nadler, Christina Morus, Gordon Coonfield, Chad White, Kelly Joyce, Shana Goldin-Persbacher, Nora Madison, Mathias Klang, Rebekah Modrak, Jon Shieber, Jessie Shimmin, Cindy Conti, Erin Christian, Sindhu Zagoren, Lauren Genovesi, Christopher Vyce, Nick Stropko, Ben Peters, Bilge Yesil, Susan Murray, Bethany Klein, Derek Johnson, Jonathan Gray, Jeff Pooley, Susan Luckman, David Parisi, Tom Perchard, Coline Milliard, Joseph Reagle, Brooke Duffy, David Hesmondhalgh, Jeremy Morris, Dave Park, Joel Oestrich, David Mindich, Asta Zelekauskaite, Brent Luvaas, Sue Stein, and all the professors of Philly Professor Beers.

Lee and Mandy Powers are my adorable parents. They are incredibly hardworking, funny, weird, and giving people who taught me to always finish what I start and mean what I say. I hope I have accomplished both here and have done them proud. To my husband, David Bennion, thank you for loving me and tolerating me always, even when I have crazy ideas and say absurd things and have to have my way. Thank you for making a home and a life with me, for being open and good and kind and patient, and for staying true to what you believe in. You are an inspiration.

In the middle of writing this book, my older sister, Tonya Powers, passed away. She was an extremely private person, and our personalities differed enormously. Nonetheless, I took for granted that she would be around during my future. I assumed that on some level we would figure out this growing older thing together. Though shed never have expected it if she were alive, I dedicate this book to her. She taught me, in the most painful way, that you can never completely predict what tomorrow will bring.