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Livesey - From global to local: the making of things and the end of globalization

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From global to local: the making of things and the end of globalization: summary, description and annotation

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Go east, young man? -- From putting out to getting out -- Tea, Earl Grey, hot, or How we will make -- All hail our robot overlords -- Getting from A to NA in a hilly world -- Manufacturing the environment -- Looking through the other end of the telescope -- Mapping the fracture between the physical and the digital -- The changing politics of manufacturing -- Epilogue: The post world.;This brilliantly original book dismantles the underlying assumptions that drive the decisions made by companies and governments the world over to show that our shared narrative of the global economy is deeply flawed and, if left unexamined, will lead corporations and countries astray, with dire consequences for us all. For the past fifty years or so, the global economy has been run on three big assumptions: that globalization will continue to spread ; that trade is the engine of growth and development ; and that economic power is moving from the West to the East. More recently, it has also been taken as a given that our interconnectedness--both physical and digital--will increase without limit. But what if all these assumptions are wrong? What if everything is about to change? Indeed, what if it has already started to change but we just havent noticed? Increased automation, the advent of additive manufacturing (3D printing, for example), changes in shipping and environmental pressures, among other factors, are coming together to create a fast-changing global economic landscape in which the rules are being rewritten--at once a challenge and an opportunity for companies and countries--

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Copyright 2017 by Finbarr Livesey All rights reserved Published in the United - photo 1
Copyright 2017 by Finbarr Livesey All rights reserved Published in the United - photo 2

Copyright 2017 by Finbarr Livesey

All rights reserved. Published in the United States by Pantheon Books, a division of Penguin Random House LLC , New York, and distributed in Canada by Random House of Canada, a division of Penguin Random House Canada Limited, Toronto. Originally published in paperback in Great Britain by Profile Books Ltd., London, in 2017.

Pantheon Books and colophon are registered trademarks of Penguin Random House LLC .

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Name: Livesey, Finbarr, author.

Title: From global to local : the making of things and the end of globalization / Finbarr Livesey.

Description: New York : Pantheon, 2017.

Identifiers: LCCN 2017008955. ISBN 9781101871218 (hardback). ISBN 9781101871225 (ebook).

Subjects: LCSH : International economic relations. Economic development. Climatic changesEconomic aspects. Corporations. International cooperation. BISAC: BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / International / Economics. POLITICAL SCIENCE / Globalization. BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Exports & Imports.

Classification: LCC HF 1365 . L 58 2017. DDC 337dc23. LC record available at lccn.loc.gov/2017008955

Ebook ISBN9781101871225

Cover design by Janet Hansen

www.pantheonbooks.com

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For Tom and Renee, with love

Contents
Acknowledgments

A BOOK LIKE THIS is an effort of many years and is based on discussions and arguments with many people from many countries and backgrounds. My thanks to everyone who took the time to listen and debate what is happening in the global economy with me, challenging me to sharpen my arguments and in many cases to reflect on what I was really trying to say. Over the years Tim, Eoin and James have been patient, supportive and encouraging in equal measure.

My U.K. agent, Sally Holloway, has been a calm and very wise guide as weve journeyed from the initial idea in her office in Oxford, through proposal and on to the final version of the book. Similarly, Andrew Franklin and his team at Profile Books in London have been great to work with, my thanks to them for taking on the project. On the other side of the Atlantic Zoe Pagnamenta has provided patient counsel and Erroll McDonald at Pantheon has been a wonderful supporter of the book from start to finish.

None of this would be possible without the support of my extended family (Jim, Mary, Rick, Joanna, Tim, Emily, Johanna, Rob, Sheila and Andrew). Most of all, though, this is possible because of Charlotte and our children, who have to put up with long mental if not physical absences when the writing takes over. My love and thanks to her and the littles.

1
Go East, Young Man?

FOR THE PAST THIRTY YEARS or more, the global economy has been run based on three big assumptions: that globalization will continue to increase, that trade is the route to growth and development, and that economic power is moving from the West to the East. More recently, it has been taken as a given that our levels of interconnectednessboth physical and digitalwill rise without limit. But what if some or all of these assumptions are wrong? What if everything is about to change? Indeed, what if the global economy has already started to change its rules, but we just havent noticed?

This is a story that is hard to tell. When there have been thousands if not millions of books, articles and academic papers claiming that globalization is the only game in town, saying that it isnt so may lead to me being put to the back of the class. If you are to believe much that is written on the evolution of the global economy, we have arrived at the equivalent of Fukuyamas (in)famous End of History, but this time for companies.

Globalization has become something analogous, portrayed as the end of economic history in many articles. In the common currently accepted version of the story of our world economy, offshoring of production to Asia by the developed economies came, made and won. The specter of China in particular looms large, with millions of cheap workers, huge industrial cities created instantly where there was nothing and a scale of ambition that seems to dwarf that of the West. For many commentators, politicians and economists this is a game that is already over. In their eyes weve seen a permanent deindustrialization of the West and economic power has shifted significantly and permanently eastward.

But sometimes the stories that seem the most secure are actually fading away from the inside out. Our faith in the shining city on a hill, the project of American democracy, appears to have been significantly tarnished through the presidential election campaign of 2016. The long running Syrian conflict and the refugee crisis that it has spawned have challenged our ideas of progress and the march of peace through democratization. And there are new voices questioning whether weve really settled on this new global economic order, questioning whether we are telling the right story about the world economy as we move further into the new century. These are the voices that will be heard in this telling of the global economy.

THE CORE ARGUMENT of this book is that the accepted interpretation of the future of globalization is misleading and flawed. We are running the global economy on a model that went out of date without anyone noticing at some point in the past decade. But working as if continuing globalization (or hyper-globalization for some) is the only show in town opens us all up to huge risk, potentially as dangerous as the financial crash of 2008 that brought the world economy to its knees.

The Titanic provides an unexpected metaphor for this phenomenon. Apparently, the most senior officer to survive its sinking, Second Officer Charles Lightoller, said on his deathbed that there had been an order to steer away from the iceberg but that it had been misinterpreted. If true, how could such a thing have happened? Left is left or in this case, port is portsurely? Maybe not. At the time of the Titanics maiden voyage the shipping industry was going through major changes as sail was giving way to steam. With that came a change in how ships were steered, from tiller to wheel. Why is that important? Well, with a tiller you steer away from the direction in which you want to go, whereas with a wheel you steer toward it. So the order the captain would have given to turn to port on a steamship such as the Titanic was the exact opposite of that used on a sailing ship. And the helmsman may have misunderstood his command. The order and the execution were carried out in two different languages.

This may be just another great tall story to add to the Titanic archive but, whether it is true or not, it highlights the importance of having a narrative that reflects how the world works today, rather than how it worked yesterday. For if the story or shorthand we carry in our heads is out of date and wrong it can lead to catastrophic consequences, whether it is the loss of a ship, the greatest recession in a hundred years, or, as this book will suggest, many countries entering an economic wilderness in the coming decades.

Out-of-date stories and understandings are everywhere once you start to look, from our private lives up to narratives about the world itself. On a personal level, for how long after a relationship has effectively ended does one of the soon-to-be ex-partners cling to the belief that all is well? And how long do we hold on to a mental picture of ourselves in our twenties when weve long ago passed into our forties or fifties? On a macro level, the world has a long history of out-of-date stories causing more than a little troublethe long and bloody history of proving that the earth revolves around the sun, the Cuban missile crisis and, of course, every financial crash from the South Sea Bubble to that of 2008, in which many individuals, investors and governments believed wrongly that risk had been designed out of the financial system when the exact opposite was true. It is hard to shake a story once it has become established. But without challenging our world view on a regular basis we run the risk of steering the global economy into another iceberg.

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