• Complain

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita - The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future

Here you can read online Bruce Bueno De Mesquita - The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future full text of the book (entire story) in english for free. Download pdf and epub, get meaning, cover and reviews about this ebook. year: 2009, publisher: Random House, genre: Politics. Description of the work, (preface) as well as reviews are available. Best literature library LitArk.com created for fans of good reading and offers a wide selection of genres:

Romance novel Science fiction Adventure Detective Science History Home and family Prose Art Politics Computer Non-fiction Religion Business Children Humor

Choose a favorite category and find really read worthwhile books. Enjoy immersion in the world of imagination, feel the emotions of the characters or learn something new for yourself, make an fascinating discovery.

No cover
  • Book:
    The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
  • Author:
  • Publisher:
    Random House
  • Genre:
  • Year:
    2009
  • Rating:
    5 / 5
  • Favourites:
    Add to favourites
  • Your mark:
    • 100
    • 1
    • 2
    • 3
    • 4
    • 5

The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future: summary, description and annotation

We offer to read an annotation, description, summary or preface (depends on what the author of the book "The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future" wrote himself). If you haven't found the necessary information about the book — write in the comments, we will try to find it.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.Revealing the origins of game theory and the advances made by John Nash, the Nobel Prizewinning scientist perhaps best known from A Beautiful Mind, Bueno de Mesquita details the controversial and cold-eyed system of calculation that he has since created, one that allows individuals to think strategically about what their opponents want, how much they want it, and how they might react to every move. From there, Bueno de Mesquita games such events as the North Korean disarmament talks and the Middle East peace process and recalls, among other cases, how he correctly predicted which corporate clients of the Arthur Andersen accounting firm were most likely engaged in fraudulent activity (hint: one of them started with an E). And looking as ever to the future, Bueno de Mesquita also demonstrates how game theory can provide successful strategies to combat both global warming (instead of relying on empty regulations, make nations compete in technology) and terror (figure out exactly how much U.S. aid will make Pakistan fight the Taliban).But as Bueno de Mesquita shows, game theory isnt just for saving the world. It can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit (lawyers argue too much the merits of the case and question too little the motives of their opponents), elect the CEO of your company (change the system of voting on your board to be more advantageous to your candidate), or even buy a car (start by knowing exactly what you want, call every dealer in a fifty-mile radius, and negotiate only over the phone).Savvy, provocative, and shockingly effective, The Predictioneers Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Lifes a game, and how you play is whether you win or lose.From the Hardcover edition.

Bruce Bueno De Mesquita: author's other books


Who wrote The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future? Find out the surname, the name of the author of the book and a list of all author's works by series.

The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future — read online for free the complete book (whole text) full work

Below is the text of the book, divided by pages. System saving the place of the last page read, allows you to conveniently read the book "The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future" online for free, without having to search again every time where you left off. Put a bookmark, and you can go to the page where you finished reading at any time.

Light

Font size:

Reset

Interval:

Bookmark:

Make
For my grandchildren Nathan Clara Abraham Hannah and those who may be - photo 1
For my grandchildren Nathan Clara Abraham Hannah and those who may be - photo 2

For my grandchildren,

Nathan, Clara, Abraham, Hannah,

and those who may be yet to come.

They will be fine caretakers

of the future.

Contents

Picture 3

Introduction

Picture 4

K ING LEOPOLD II , remembered today as Belgiums Builder King, reigned from 1865 to 1909. A constitutional monarch who, like many of his contemporaries, longed for the bygone days of absolute power, he was nonetheless an unusually influential and activist king who helped make Belgians free, prosperous, and secure.

Belgiums good works during Leopolds reign are almost uncountable. He oversaw the expansion of political freedom with the adoption of universal adult male suffrage in competitive elections, putting his country on a firm footing to become a modern democracy. On the economic front, he encouraged free-trade policies that guided Belgium to remarkable growth. In little Belgium, coal production, the engine of industry in nineteenth-century Europe, rose to such heights that it almost equaled that of France. Social policy too moved briskly ahead. Primary education became compulsory, and with the 1881 School Law, girls were assured access to secondary education. Moreover, Leopolds policies provided greater protection for women and children than was then the norm in most of Europe. Thanks to legislation passed in 1889, children under twelve could not be put to work, and after they turned twelve their workdays were limited to twelve hours, a radical departure from prevailing policy of the time.

When the Belgian economy was racked by a major economic crisis in 1873, Leopold helped improve the lot of the poor with pro-labor reforms, including granting workers the right to strike, a right that was still hotly resisted in the United States half a century later. He promoted truly ambitious public works projects, including massive road and railway construction designed to reduce unemployment, promote urbanization, and increase business opportunities. He was way ahead of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Barack Obama in recognizing how to stimulate employment and economic prosperity by building up infrastructure.

Leopold was a great reformer at home, a founder of Belgiums long years of peace and plenty.

But then there was the Congo.

Though he never set foot in Africa, Leopold also ruled over the Congo Free State for nearly a quarter of a century (1885-1908). He built his personal wealth in the Congo first by extracting high-priced ivory from the region and then by exploiting the even more lucrative rubber trade that developed there. Unlike in Belgium, there was no chef de cabinet (roughly, prime minister), and no voters among the Congos approximately 30 million people to limit what he could do. Because it was his personal property, Leopold was free to exert the absolute rule he could not have at home. His police, the Force Publique, became the key to governing the Congo. Their job was to extract wealth for him (and for themselves) by ensuring the vast exportation of rubber to meet world demand. This band of butchers was led by a small number of Europeans who kidnapped and enslaved Congolese as soldiers who were in turn responsible for making sure that rubber quotas were met. Slave labor was the Force Publiques preferred mode of production, so its soldiers set about enslaving Congolese men, women, and children.

Leopolds police received low salaries but could earn big commissions by meeting or exceeding their rubber quotas. Unrestricted by any law governing their conduct except, literally, the law of the jungle, and provided with a huge financial incentive through the commission system, these soldiers of sorrow, from the very bottom of the ladder to the very top, used whatever means they saw fit to meet the quotas. The incentives included not only riches for those who succeeded but the severest punishment for those who failed, including beatings and even death. To avoid this fate the police tortured, maimed, and often murdered those below them who threatened (or could be claimed to have threatened) rubber production. Rewarded for killing people allegedly engaged in antigovernment activities and needing to account for every bullet they spent, soldiers quickly took to indiscriminate mutilation of innocent souls as a way to boost their

In contrast to Leopolds progressive policies in Belgium, virtually nothing was invested in improving conditions in the Congo. Roads were built only where they helped move rubber to market. Laws protecting women and children or workers right to strike were unheard of. Much as Leopold worried about protecting the security of his Belgian subjects, he worked to undermine the security of his Congolese subjects. Just about the only items exported to the Congo were weapons for the Force Publique, while vast riches flowed back to Europe. Indeed, it was this extraordinary imbalance in trade that eventually led to the revelation in Belgium that Leopold was growing rich through slavery and much worse. In 1908, the evidence of atrocities reached such a level that they could no longer be denied, and Leopold, with great reluctance, surrendered his control over the Congo to the Belgian government. The ministers certainly did not rule it well, but compared to Leopold, they were a significant improvement.

How could King Leopold II have ruled two places at the same time in such dramatically different manners?

Its easy to blame Leopolds apparent split personalitya progressive in Belgium and a monster in the Congoon some character flaw or on a diseased mind. Its also easy to explain away his horrible rule in the Congo as typical racist behavior. These explanations feel good, but they almost certainly cannot describe the big picture. After all, just think about Mobutu Sese Seko, the Congos latter-day Leopold, the monster in a leopard-skin hat who ruled Zaire (largely what used to be the Congo Free State and is today the Democratic Republic of Congo) for more than thirty years (196597). During that time he bankrupted his country, stole billions of dollars for himself, and murdered hundreds of thousands of Congolese. Surely we cannot blame Mobutus murderous rule on racism. Was he crazy? Probably not, and besides, what are the odds that so many allegedly crazy people would rise to and then successfully cling to power for decades despite their awful rule?

Leopold and Mobutu are far from unusual cases. Even today, the United Nations reports that people caught up in Sierra Leones diamond

Its nice to think that leaders who provide peace and plenty rule for long, happy years, beloved by the people and content to do good for them day and night. But in fact those who want to run a country for a long time are ill advised to go around promoting peace and prosperity. Not that making people well off is inherently bad for leaders; it isnt. Its just that promoting corruption and misery is better. That was well understood by Leopold and Mobutu in the Congo, and is clearly understood today by the governments in places like North Korea, Zimbabwe, Turkmenistan, Chad, Syria sadly, the list goes on.

It so happens that leaders who are really good at giving their people life, liberty, and happiness are, overwhelmingly, democratically elected and therefore face organized political competition. It also so happens that they are routinely thrown out after only a short time in office.

Next page
Light

Font size:

Reset

Interval:

Bookmark:

Make

Similar books «The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future»

Look at similar books to The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. We have selected literature similar in name and meaning in the hope of providing readers with more options to find new, interesting, not yet read works.


Reviews about «The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future»

Discussion, reviews of the book The Predictioneers Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future and just readers' own opinions. Leave your comments, write what you think about the work, its meaning or the main characters. Specify what exactly you liked and what you didn't like, and why you think so.