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The Future of Global Conflict Sage Studies in International Sociology; 49
author
:
Bornschier, Volker
publisher
:
Sage Publications, Inc.
isbn10 | asin
:
0761958665
print isbn13
:
9780761958666
ebook isbn13
:
9780585352886
language
:
English
subject
World politics--1989- , Great powers, Twenty-first century--Forecasts.
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
D860.F875 1999eb
ddc
:
909.81
subject
:
World politics--1989- , Great powers, Twenty-first century--Forecasts.
Page i
The Future of Global Conflict
Page ii
SAGE STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGY Editorial Board
Editor Neil Guppy, University of British Columbia, Canada [from no. 48 onwards]
Associate Editors
Paul Bernard, University of Montreal, Canada Y.B. Damle, Pune, India Elizabeth Jelin, CEDES (Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad), Buenos Aires, Argentine Endre Sik, Institute for Social Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
Page iii
The Future of Global Conflict
edited by Volker Bornschier and Christopher Chase-Dunn
Page iv
International Sociological Association 1999
First published 1999
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the Publishers.
SAGE Publications Ltd 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A 4PU
SAGE Publications Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320
SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd 32, M-Block Market Greater Kailash - I New Delhi 110 048
British Library Cataloguing in Publication data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0 7619 5865 7 ISBN 0 7619 5866 5 (pbk)
Library of Congress catalog card number 98-61493
Typeset by Mayhew Typesetting, Rhayader, Powys Printed in Great Britain by Biddles Ltd, Guildford, Surrey
Page v
CONTENTS
Contributors
vii
1 Introduction: The Future of Hegemonic Rivalry in Perspective
Christopher Chase-Dunn and Volker Bornschier
1
Part I: Different Predictions for the Future
11
2 From Leadership to Organization: The Evolution of Global Politics
George Modelski
11
3 The Next World War: World-System Cycles and Trends
Christopher Chase-Dunn and Bruce Podobnik
40
4 Beyond Cycles of Hegemony: Economic, Social and Military Factors
Walter L. Goldfrank
66
5 Hegemonic Transition, West European Unification and the Future Structure of the Core
Volker Bornschier
77
Part II: Post-War Shifts in the World Political Economy
99
6 Global Cooperation or Rival Trade Blocs?
Gerd Junne
99
7 Clashes of Life Spaces and Other Logics of Hegemonic Rivalry
Tieting Su
119
8 Who Has the Most Fortune 500 Firms? A Network Analysis of Global Economic Competition, 195689
Albert Bergesen and Roberto Fernandez
151
9 Twenty-Fifty: The Hegemonic Moment of Global Capitalism
John Borrego
174
Page vi
Part III: Prospects for Potential Future Hegemons
211
10 Japan: A Hegemonic Power? Reflections on Economic Success and Possible Political Futures
Yasusada Yawata
211
11 Germany, the USA and Future Intercore Conflict
Brigitte Schulz
226
12 Future Hegemonic Rivalry between China and the West?
Erich Weede
244
Part IV: Looking Back and Ahead
263
13 Hegemony and Bifurcation Points in World History
Terry Boswell
263
14 Technological Change, Globalization and Hegemonic Rivalry
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