J. L. Black - Russia after 2020: Looking Ahead after Two Decades of Putin

Russia after 2020

This book presents a comprehensive survey of the current state of Russia and

how Russia is likely to develop in the immediate future. Not always sticking

to the mainstream narrative, it covers political events including Putins con

stitutional reforms of January 2020 and their likely consequences, economic

developments, Russias international relations and military activities, and

changes and issues in Russian society, including in education, the place of

women, health care and religion. Special attention is paid to manifestations

of the COVID-19 pandemic. The books overall conclusion is that events of

2020 may compel Putin to think again before he decides whether to run for

office in 2024.

J. L. Black is an Emeritus and Distinguished Research Professor at Carleton University, Canada, and an Adjunct Professor at Laurentian University,

Canada.

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Conformity and Non-Conformity Amidst Stagnation Decay

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Looking Ahead after Two Decades of Putin

J. L. Black

Series url: https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Contemporary-Russia-and

Eastern-Europe-Series/book-series/SE0766

Russia after 2020

Looking Ahead after Two Decades

of Putin

First published 2022

by Routledge

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and by Routledge

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Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa

business

2022 J. L. Black

The right of J. L. Black to be identified as author of this work has

been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the

Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or

reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,

or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including

photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or

retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or

registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and

explanation without intent to infringe.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

A catalog record has been requested for this book

ISBN: 978-0-367-74594-3 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-74595-0 (pbk)

ISBN: 978-1-003-15864-6 (ebk)

DOI: 10.4324/9781003158646

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Contents

vi Contents

Contents vii

Although Vladimir Putin is everywhere in this book, this is a story about

Russia, a country that is far more than just its leader. To get a proper perspective, we need to see the world, abroad and at home, through a Russian prism,

and take note of what Russia actually does, not merely what we assume it will

do, or has done. This approach may not provide us with what is correct from

our perspective; rather, it will reflect what most Russians believe to be

correct.

In contrast to the old Soviet days, sources used here will demonstrate that,

even if the state is the main player in the Russian media, especially on TV,

Russian citizens are able to find all sides of political, economic and social

arguments in their own print media, blogs, tweets and Internet.

Both sides of controversial issues will be on display and, though it will

not seem so to those whose minds are already made up, no side will be

taken.

Like its predecessors in chronological accounts, The Russian Presidency ofDmitry Medvedev, 200812 (2015) and Putins Third Term as RussiasPresident, 201218 (2019), this book focusses on a short but crucial period in Russias very recent past and present. Indeed, together they form a trilogy of detail on Russian affairs since at least 2008. The multi-subject approach also echoes chapters in the edited volume, Russia After 2012 (2013), which included essays by a dozen scholars, from four countries.

Using the year 2020 as a make-or-break year in Putins fourth and once

presumed final presidential term, and collating events and developments in a

three-year period (201820) with earlier ones, the book demonstrates how far

Russia has come in its still short post-Soviet history and provides a glimpse

of what may come next.

No recent book deals with as many facets of Russian life as this one does.

Details included here should cause readers to think harder about generally

accepted narratives related to the Russian economy and the consequences of

economic sanctions, the Kremlins relations with Ukraine, Syria, China and

the United States, and the attitudes of citizens towards their government and

president. It is hoped that an understanding of reality will emerge somewhere

between the rosy optimism presented by Russias officialdom and the gloom

and doom presented by Western Russophobes and Russian dissenters.

Preface xi

The coincidence of political turning points in 2020, such as the January

Revolution, constitutional reset and pandemic, all complicated further by a

temporary oil price collapse, pipeline wars, devastating climate change, the

Navalny phenomenon and accelerated Western-imposed sanctions, ensures

that 2020 will be marked as a pivotal one for Russia and its people.

Russian transliteration here is based on a modified Library of Congress sys

tem, with common-use applications for names and places. Most diacritical

marks have been deleted in the main text. Although they both use the Cyrillic

alphabet, the Russian and Ukrainian languages have different spelling for the

same names and places, such as Kyiv (Ukrainian) and Kiev (Russian). Some

of these spelling have political implications, such as Donbass (Russian) and

Donbas (Ukrainian). As much as possible, the spelling used most commonly

by inhabitants of the area/town/region is adopted here.

British spelling and punctuation are used throughout except for personal

and textual titles where other spelling systems are appropriate; for example,

an American Secretary of Defense and Russian Minister of Defence, or in