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Stephan Frühling and Andrew ONeil - Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century

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Stephan Frühling and Andrew ONeil Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century
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In an era of great power competition, the role of alliances in managing escalation of conflict has acquired renewed importance. Nuclear weapons remain the ultimate means for deterrence and controlling escalation, and are central to US alliances in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. However, allies themselves need to better prepare for managing escalation in an increasingly challenging geostrategic and technological environment for the US and its allies. While the challenge of great power competition is acute at both ends of Eurasia, adversary threats, geography and the institutional context of US alliances differ. This book brings together leading experts from Europe, Northeast Asia, the United States and Australia to focus on these challenges, identify commonalities and differences across regions, and pinpoint ways to collectively manage nuclear deterrence and potential escalation pathways in Americas 21st century alliances. Nuclear weapons play an important role in deterrence and preventing military conflict between great powers, while also posing an existential threat to humanity. It is vital that we have a nuanced understanding of this important challenge, so that such weapons are never used. This book offers many important perspectives and makes a significant contribution to the overall debate about these powerful weapons. The Hon Julie Bishop, Chancellor, The Australian National University, Former Foreign Minister of Australia This timely book identifies a wide range of challenges US alliances both in the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic face as they seek to ensure the value of US extended deterrence, particular the US nuclear umbrella, against China and Russia. This unique collection of chapters written by experts in US allies in both regions presents widely varying security perceptions and priorities. To understand such differences is the key to globally strengthen the US alliance systems, which are a significant advantage Washington enjoys over the two competitors. Yukio Satoh, former President of The Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) This is a timely and thoughtful collection of essays that should serve to jumpstart public discussion and debatethe absence of which is widely noted and much bemoaned. Each contributor examines an aspect of the complicated, multifaceted nuclear debate by discussing the range of dilemmas from deterrence to disarmament. The various views set out here are more relevant than ever as Russia, China and the United States flex their nuclear muscles in new and sometimes dangerous ways. This book should be read by anyone interested in the preventing the use of nuclear weapons and understanding complexities of alliances in an increasingly dangerous world. Madelyn Creedon, former Principal Deputy Administrator of the US National Nuclear Security Administration and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs

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Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation

Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century

Edited by Stephan Frhling and Andrew ONeil

Alliances Nuclear Weapons and Escalation Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century - image 2

Published by ANU Press

The Australian National University

Acton ACT 2601, Australia

Email: anupress@anu.edu.au

Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au

ISBN (print): 9781760464905

ISBN (online): 9781760464912

WorldCat (print): 1285533360

WorldCat (online): 1285533216

DOI: 10.22459/ANWE.2021

This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

Alliances Nuclear Weapons and Escalation Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century - image 3

The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode

Cover design and layout by ANU Press

Cover photograph: B-2 Spirit operates at Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia. Tech. Sgt. Heather Salazar. The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.

This book is published under the aegis of the Asia-Pacific Security Studies Editorial Board of ANU Press.

This edition 2021 ANU Press

Acknowledgements

No book, and certainly no edited volume, sees the light of day without the significant support of those behind the scenes. We are very grateful to Dr Emily Robertson for her outstanding research assistance and project management skills that were integral in preparing the volume. We thank all contributors for their sustained commitment to the project during what was for many an exceptionally difficult period navigating the impacts of COVID-19. We would also like to thank Dr Greg Raymond and Emily Tinker at ANU Press for their continuing support for the project and the two anonymous reviewers who provided important suggestions on improvements to the manuscript.

Finally, we gratefully acknowledge the generous financial support for this project provided by Australias Department of Defence through its Strategic Policy Grants scheme.

Stephan Frhling

Canberra

Andrew ONeil

Brisbane

Abbreviations

ACM

Alliance Coordination Mechanism

ADF

Australian Defence Force

ANZUS

Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty

APEC

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ASAT

anti-satellite

ASEAN

Association of Southeast Asian Nations

ASW

anti-submarine warfare

BMD

ballistic missile defence

CCP

Chinese Communist Party

CPGS

conventional prompt global strike

CPS

conventional prompt-strike

CSIS

Centre for Strategic and International Studies

DCA

dual-capable aircraft

DDA

Deterrence and Defence of the Euro-Atlantic Area

DDPR

Deterrence and Defence Posture Review

DSC

Deterrence Strategy Committee

EDSCG

Extended Deterrence Strategy & Consultative Group

EDT

emerging and disruptive technologies

FDO

flexible deterrent options

ICBM

intercontinental ballistic missile

ICRC

International Committee of the Red Cross

INDOPACOM

Indo-Pacific Command

INF

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces

LDP

Liberal Democratic Party

MRBM

medium-range ballistic missile

MSDF

Maritime Self-Defense Forces

NATO

North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NDPG

National Defense Program Guidelines

New START

New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

NFU

no first use

NPG

Nuclear Planning Group

NPR

Nuclear Posture Review

NPT

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

NWS

nuclear weapon states

OPLAN

operational plan

PLA

Peoples Liberation Army

PRC

Peoples Republic of China

ROK

Republic of Korea

SACEUR

Supreme Allied Commander Europe

SDF

Self-Defense Forces

SLBM

submarine-launched ballistic missiles

SLCMN

Sea-Launched Cruise Missile Nuclear

SSA

Space Situational Awareness

THAAD

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense

TPNW

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

UK

United Kingdom

UN

United Nations

US

United States

USFK

US Forces Korea

Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation

Stephan Frhling and Andrew ONeil

As great power competition once again assumes a central place in international relations, alliances have taken on renewed importance in the security calculations of Australia and other US allies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. Deterrence of an attack on allies is a core function of US alliances, as are mechanisms through which states seek to manage the risk of escalationthe movement through increasing intensity of conflict up to, in the extreme, global nuclear war. Alliances seek to prevent escalation in the form of an attack on its members through strategies of deterrence and extended deterrence that are themselves predicated on credible threats of escalation. Nuclear weapons are central to deterrence and escalation considerations and form a key component of Americas strategic toolkit to reassure Japan, South Korea and Australia in the Indo-Pacific, as well as North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies in the Euro-Atlantic.

However, allies cannot afford to be passive actors in their interactions with Washington. They need to prepare for and seek to manage escalation in a broader geostrategic, technological and political context that shapes the ability of alliances to adapt to a new security environment. While the challenge of great power competition is acute at both ends of Eurasia, adversary threats, geography and the institutional context of US alliances differ. This volume brings together contributors from Europe, North-East Asia, the United States and Australia to better understand these challenges, identify commonalities and differences across regions, and pinpoint ways to collectively manage nuclear deterrence in twenty-first-century alliances. It focuses on nuclear deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and strategic competition between the US and China; the role of non-nuclear US allies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe in supporting US extended nuclear deterrence; political-military challenges in alliance plans for escalation; allied perspectives on the consequences of new non-nuclear capabilities, including cyber and hypersonic weapons, for deterrence and strategic stability; and lessons on how the US and allied nations can better engage their respective publics on questions relating to nuclear deterrence.

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