David A. Backer - Peace and Conflict 2014

Peace and Conflict is the flagship publication of the Center for International Development and Conflict Management at the University of Maryland. Its purpose is to make current academic research on conflict, democratization, terrorism, and international development more accessible and interpretable for people in the policy community and especially for an academic audience that wants to better understand how such research informs policy discussions.

This publication continues coverage of several topics that appeared in earlier volumes: the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger and global trends in armed conflict, the spread of democracy, and terrorism. In addition, six chapters are included on a special theme: Disaggregation and the Microdynamics of Conflict and Peacebuilding. This section, organized by David Backer, highlights the recent emergence of a new frontier in research, the novel datasets on which it is based, and important insights and applications. Also, a final chapter provides an overview of the armed conflicts that were active in 2012.

The publication is committed to the principle that research should be fully transparent and the findings replicable by other interested researchers. To that end, the analyses generally use data sources that have been released to the public.

The partnership between CIDCM and Paradigm Publishers facilitates wider dissemination of Peace and Conflict to the academic and policy communities, providing the opportunity for researchers, policy makers, and students to understand and extend our analyses. In addition, an executive summary can be obtained from the CIDCM website (www.cidcm.umd.edu) and is available from the Center upon request (cidcm@cidcm.umd.edu).

We continue to benefit from the advice and guidance offered by our Editorial Board, chaired by Ted Robert Gurr, the founding author of the Peace and Conflict publications. Board members played an important role in shaping the contents of Peace and Conflict 2014. As the various chapters came together, they provided careful reviews of each one, making the final collection a sharper and more cohesive product. We are very grateful for their valuable support. The members are identified at the end of this volume.

S ince the publication of Peace and Conflict 2012, developments in many regions and countries attest to the continuing problems of armed conflict, as well as the complexities of crisis management and post-conflict peacebuilding. For instance, the Egyptian militarys forcible removal of former president Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, and subsequent violent repression of the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights the deep challenges to democratization. While Egypt now teeters on the precipice of full-scale civil war, Syria has been engulfed in massive internal violence since mid-2011, exhibiting large-scale victimization of civilian populations, deep divisions among the rebel forces opposing the Assad regime, and growing internationalization of the conflict, with many regional actors supporting the opposing sides. In January 2013, the Malian government teetered on the edge of collapse under the threat of Islamist-led fighters moving from territory they controlled in northern Mali, but a French intervention turned back the rebels. The political crisis has stabilized, at least for the short term, as a peace agreement was reached with Tuareg rebel forces, new elections were held, and a UN peacekeeping operation was authorized. In Kenya, national elections held in April 2013 did not result in the widespread violence associated with the previous round of national elections in December 2007, which is a positive sign for the stability of the country.

These events in the several countries exemplify the types of topics taken up by the authors in various chapters of Peace and Conflict 2014. For example, the political crisis in Egypt raises larger questions about the prospects of democratization during periods of leadership transition, which Erica Frantz addresses in .

As with previous editions, Peace and Conflict 2014 is organized into two main sections. The first section, comprised of presents another regular feature of Peace and Conflict, a review of active armed conflicts around the world.

In , David Backer and Paul Huth report the latest results from the Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger, a worldwide ranking of countries risk of facing significant political instability and armed conflict during the period of 20122014. Particular attention is paid to those 25 countries at the greatest risk of instability, as well as those countries that have experienced the largest changes in risk scoresboth positive and negativeover the previous five years. Not surprisingly, the Ledger categorizes countries such as Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq among the most at risk. Interestingly, Egypt is in the some risk category, while Syria is in the low risk category, whereas both have recently suffered considerable turmoil and violence. The chapter acknowledges the inherent imperfections of forecasting and offers suggestions about how the Ledger and related analysis could be improved to yield a better fit to observed outcomes.

In , Backer and Huth report on global trends in armed conflict from 19462012, including both interstate and intrastate confrontations. They provide information on the onset, recurrence, and termination of conflicts. In particular, conflict recurrence remains a persistent problem for countries emerging from civil wars.