Sidney D. Drell - Implications of the Reykjavik Summit on Its Twentieth Anniversary: Conference Report

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The Hoover Institution gratefully acknowledges

THE LYNDE AND HARRY BRADLEY FOUNDATION
THE HONORABLE ROBERT D. STUART JR.

for their significant support of the conference Implications of the Reykjavik Summit on Its Twentieth Anniversary and this resultant publication.

Implications of the Reykjavik Summit on Its Twentieth Anniversary

CONFERENCE REPORT

Conference Organizers and Report Editors:
Sidney D. Drell and George P. Shultz

Conference held October 1112, 2006 at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University

HOOVER INSTITUTION
Stanford University
Stanford, California

The Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace, founded at Stanford University in 1919 by Herbert Hoover, who went on to become the thirty-first president of the United States, is an interdisciplinary research center for advanced study on domestic and international affairs. The views expressed in its publications are entirely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, officers, or Board of Overseers of the Hoover Institution.

www.hoover.org

Hoover Institution Press Publication No. 558

Copyright 2007 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher.

First printing, 2007
14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Manufactured in the United States of America

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Implications of the Reykjavik summit on its twentieth anniversary : conference report / conference organizers and report editors, Sidney D. Drell and George P. Shultz.

p. cm.(Hoover Institution Press publication; no. 558)
Conference held October 11-12, 2006 at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8179-4841-2 (cloth: alk. paper)
ISBN-13: 978-0-8179-4842-9 (pbk.: alk. paper)

1. Nuclear nonproliferationCongresses. 2. United StatesForeign relationsSoviet UnionCongresses. 3. Soviet UnionForeign relationsUnited StatesCongresses. 4. United StatesForeign relations1981-1989Congresses. 5. Summit meetingsIcelandReykjavikCongresses. 6. Visits of stateIcelandReykjavikCongresses. 7. Reagan, RonaldCongresses. 8. Gorbachev, Mikhail Sergeevich, 1931-Congresses. I. Drell, Sidney D. (Sidney David), 1926- II. Shultz, George Pratt, 1920- III. Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace. IV. Title. V. Series.
JZ5675.I67 2007

327.1747dc22

2007037502

eISBN: 9780817948436

Preface

We have talked together a lot about issues of arms control and about the devastating consequences of a nuclear explosion. The Gravest Danger, by Sid Drell and Jim Goodby, with a Foreword by George Shultz, addresses this issue.

Out of all this discussion came the idea of holding a conference on the twentieth anniversary of the meeting in Reykjavik between President Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev. The idea was not so much to rehash the Reykjavik events as to talk about the implications of what was discussed there.

We are very pleased that the idea attracted a group of outstanding people, and the discussion for all of us was genuinely rewarding. At its conclusion, Bill Perry suggested that we should have a follow-up meeting, and we plan to organize one.

In the meantime, we have put together in this little booklet some of the extraordinary material presented to the conference. Also included is an op-ed piece that was a derivative of the conference and that appeared in the Wall Street Journal on January 4, 2007. The reactions to this piece have been generally favorable, so we are encouraged to continue working at this project. We were particularly struck by a letter from Mikhail Gorbachev, which is also included in this booklet.

George P. Shultz
Sidney D. Drell

Related Newspaper Articles

A World Free of Nuclear Weapons

George P. Shultz,
William J. Perry,
Henry A. Kissinger,
and Sam Nunn

NUCLEAR WEAPONS TODAY present tremendous dangers, but also an historic opportunity. U.S. leadership will be required to take the world to the next stageto a solid consensus for reversing reliance on nuclear weapons globally as a vital contribution to preventing their proliferation into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately ending them as a threat to the world.

Nuclear weapons were essential to maintaining international security during the Cold War because they were a means of deterrence. The end of the Cold War made the doctrine of mutual Soviet-American deterrence obsolete. Deterrence continues to be a relevant consideration for many states with regard to threats from other states. But reliance on nuclear weapons for this purpose is becoming increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective.

North Koreas recent nuclear test and Irans refusal to stop its program to enrich uraniumpotentially to weapons gradehighlight the fact that the world is now on the precipice of a new and dangerous nuclear era. Most alarmingly, the likelihood that nonstate terrorists will get their hands on nuclear weaponry is increasing. In todays war waged on world order by terrorists, nuclear weapons are the ultimate means of mass devastation. And non-state terrorist groups with nuclear weapons are conceptually outside the bounds of a deterrent strategy and present difficult new security challenges.

Apart from the terrorist threat, unless urgent new actions are taken, the U.S. soon will be compelled to enter a new nuclear era that will be more precarious, psychologically disorienting, and economically even more costly than was Cold War deterrence. It is far from certain that we can successfully replicate the old Soviet-American mutually assured destruction with an increasing number of potential nuclear enemies worldwide without dramatically increasing the risk that nuclear weapons will be used. New nuclear states do not have the benefit of years of step-by-step safeguards put in effect during the Cold War to prevent nuclear accidents, misjudgments, or unauthorized launches. The United States and the Soviet Union learned from mistakes that were less than fatal. Both countries were diligent to ensure that no nuclear weapon was used during the Cold War, by design or by accident. Will new nuclear nations and the world be as fortunate in the next 50 years as we were during the Cold War?

LEADERS ADDRESSED THIS issue in earlier times. In his Atoms for Peace address to the United Nations in 1953, Dwight D. Eisenhower pledged Americas determination to help solve the fearful atomic dilemmato devote its entire heart and mind to find the way by which the miraculous inventiveness of man shall not be dedicated to his death, but consecrated to his life. John F. Kennedy, seeking to break the logjam on nuclear disarmament, said, The world was not meant to be a prison in which man awaits his execution.

Rajiv Gandhi, addressing the U.N. General Assembly on June 9, 1988, appealed, Nuclear war will not mean the death of a hundred million people. Or even a thousand million. It will mean the extinction of four thousand million: the end of life as we know it on our planet Earth. We come to the United Nations to seek your support. We seek your support to put a stop to this madness.

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