Lawrence A Palinkas - A a Systems Approach to Social Impact Assessment: Two Alaskan Case Studies

C. P. Wolf, General Editor

Lawrence A. Palinkas, Bruce Murray Harris, and John S. Petterson

This book provides two case studies that demonstrate the use of systems analysis to forecast the often far-reaching consequences of government policies and economic development for the social relations and cultural values of different communities. The case studies examine the potential effects of oil development in two rural Alaskan communities, comparing the impact of proposed oil-related activities with projected changes in the sociocultural and socioeconomic aspects of these communities under other sets of assumptions, such as the development of a local groundfish industry.

Each case study begins with an ethnographic description of the community, organized along the lines of a systems model, which is then used to assess the impact of development upon economic activities, political and social organizations, religion, education, health and social services, and recreation. The systems approach to social impact assessment is a commonly used decision-making tool, and the comparisons set forth in these two case studies will allow managers and policymakers to better tailor models to suit the needs of their inquiries.

Lawrence A. Palinkas and Bruce Murray Harris are executive directors of Impact Assessment, Inc., a research corporation specializing in applied social science. John S. Petterson is president of Impact Assessment, Inc.

First published 1985 by Westview Press

Published 2018 by Routledge

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Copyright 1985 by Taylor & Francis

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Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Palinkas, Lawrence A.

A systems approach to social impact assessment.

(Social impact assessment series; no. 15)

Bibliography: p.

1. Petroleum industry and trade--Social aspects--

Alaska--Case studies. 2. Cities and towns--Alaska--Case

studies. 3. Alaska--Rural conditions--Case studies.

I. Harris, Bruce Murray. II. Petterson, John S.

III. Title.

HD9567.A4P351985303.40979884-25631

ISBN 0-8133-7031-0

ISBN 13: 978-0-367-00822-2 (hbk)

Ever since the enactment of the National Environmental Policy Act in 1969 several quantitative models have been developed to assist managers, government officials, and researchers in conducting social impact assessments. Development in this field has been both rapid and focussed on economic and demographic indicators of change. Models range in scope and complexity from relatively simple accounting models of population, employment and income, to sophisticated computerized models of economic sector growth, migration, government revenues, social services, and income stratification. In comparison, there has been relatively little progress made in the development of qualitative models. This is unfortunate because of the need to incorporate qualitative data into the social impact assessment process and because of the relatively narrow range of social system components which are analyzed by quantitative models.

This book represents an effort at developing a qualitative model for use in social impact assessments. The systems approach described in this book and applied in two different case studies is not intended to replace the quantitative models widely used today, but rather it could be used as a supplement to these models. Our objective in using the systems approach was to explain the relationships among the various components of a communitys socioeconomic and sociocultural systems. It was believed that in doing so, the forecasts generated from the quantitative models could be contextualized in the larger systemic view of the community. Aspects of socioeconomic and sociocultural systems, including values, religious organization, social networks, health care, and recreation, which are often excluded from social impact assessments, are included in this approach. Moreover, this particular model appeared to be ideally suited to the task of integrating quantitative and qualitative data in social impact assessments. Hence, the projections of economic and population growth typically given by the quantitative models are related to concepts such as political conflict, psychological stress, and patterns of subsistence exchange in this model.

Several weaknesses exist with this particular qualitative model, some which were uncovered by applying it in the two Alaskan case studies described below, and some which remain to be examined by further testing and critical evaluation. The intent of this book is to present the results of its initial application and to open a dialogue which will generate criticism, feedback, and eventual refinements, thus enhancing the models validity and use in other types of social impact studies.

The two social impact studies were conducted by Impact Assessment, Inc. for the Social and Economic Studies Program of the Minerals Management Service, Alaska OCS Region. Dr. Petterson served as Project Manager and Principal Investigator for these studies and provided overall supervision for the data collection efforts in the field. Mr. Michael Downs conducted four months of field data collection in Unalaska and provided most of the primary data contained in . Data on regional relationships in the Aleutians were provided by Beverly Holmes. The initial format for the systems model used to describe and develop forecast scenarios for the communities of Unalaska and Cold Bay was developed by Dr. Palinkas and applied in a previous OCS study (Petterson, Palinkas and Harris 1982). The model was later refined by Dr. Petterson and Dr. Harris to meet the specific requirements of social impact assessments for rural Alaskan communities.