Jorge I. Domínguez - Toward Mexicos Democratization: Parties, Campaigns, Elections and Public Opinion

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TOWARD

MEXICOS

DEMOCRATIZATION

Parties, Campaigns, Elections, and Public Opinion

Edited by

Jorge I. Domnguez and Alejandro Poir

Published in 1999 by

Routledge

270 Madison Ave,

New York NY 10016

Published in Great Britain by

Routledge

2 Park Square, Milton Park,

Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

Transferred to Digital Printing 2010

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Toward Mexicos democratization : parties, campaigns, elections, and public opinion / edited by Jorge I. Domnguez and Alejandro Poir.

p. cm.

Papers of a conference held in Cambridge, Mass., Oct. 31,1997.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 0-415-92159-7. ISBN 0-415-92158-9 (pbk.)

1. ElectionsMexicoCongresses. 2. MexicoPolitics and government1988 Congresses. 3. Political partiesMexicoCongresses. I. Domnguez, Jorge I., 1945 . II. Poir, Alejandro, 1971 .

JL1292.T69 1999

324.9720835dc21	98-35528
CIP

Publishers Note

The publisher has gone to great lengths to ensure the quality of this reprint but points out that some imperfections in the original may be apparent.

CONTENTS

Jorge I. Domnguez

Alejandro Poir

Linda S. Stevenson

Kathleen Bruhn

Alejandro Moreno

Chappell Lawson

Alberto Cinta

Beatriz Magaloni

Effect of Long-Term Partisanship on Party Choice

Effect of Risk Aversion on Party Choice

Percentages of Female Deputies and Senators in the Mexican Congress: 195297

Distribution of the Campaign Awareness Index: 1997

Levels of Campaign Awareness by Social Group

Levels of Campaign Awareness by Interest in Political Advertisements and Media Exposure

Levels of Campaign Awareness by Political and Ideological Orientations

Economic Performance and Awareness

Vote Consistency, Intensity of Party Identification, and Campaign Awareness

Vote Consistency, Party Identification, and Campaign Awareness

Certainty about Party Performance, by Levels of Education

Expected Performance by Party

Utility Function over Consequences

PRI Vote Share in Local Elections: 198096

PRI Vote Share in Presidential and Congressional Elections: 196494

Prior Assessments on PRIs Economic Record, by Age Cohort, at Three Historical Moments

Simulation of the Bayesian Model: Expected Party Economic Performance for Two Types of Incumbents and Two Types of Challengers

Percentage Voting for the PRI by Summary Measure of Retrospective Evaluations, 1994 and 1997 National Elections

Final Model of Electoral Choice, Presidential Election 1994

Impact of Retrospective and Prospective Assessments on Party Choice

Percentages of Female Deputies and Senators Elected: 198897

Percentages of Female Deputies and Senators Elected by Party: 1994 and 1997 Elections

Percentages of Female Deputies and Senators Elected by Party: 1997

Electoral Competitiveness: 196494

Electoral Volatility in Mexico: 198297

Political Advertising and Awareness

Awareness, Political Advertising, and Voting

Determinants of Campaign Awareness in the 1997 Mexican Elections

Campaign Contact, Campaign Awareness, and Voting

A Model of Vote Consistency

Principal Correlates of Ideological Self-Identification

Vote in July by Voting Intention in March

Attitude Consistency

Education and Opinion Stability (March-July)

Principal Determinants of Support for Major Mexican Parties

Party-Specific Models

Changes in Support for Major Parties

Party-Specific Models of Change during Campaign (March-June and June-July)

Voting Intention, Congressional Election

Certainty Regarding the Future Performance of Political Parties If They Win the Election

Percentage of Persons Who Are Certain of Their Forecast about Parties Performance, by Party Identification

Risk Attitudes

Forecast of Performance and Electoral Preferences

Electoral Preferences and Comparative Expected Values

Certainty and the Forecasts about Performance

Simultaneous Effect of Three Variables over Vote Intentions

Vote for the PRI As a Function of Future Expectations about Future Performance of Parties

Vote for the PAN As a Function of Attitude toward Risk, Forecast about Future Performance of This Party, and Uncertainty Associated with This Forecast

Vote for the PRI As a Function of Attitude toward Risk, Forecast about Future Performance of This Party, and Uncertainty Associated with This Forecast

Vote for the PRD As a Function of Attitude toward Risk, Forecast about Future Performance of This Party, and Uncertainty Associated with This Forecast

Vote for the PRI When Controlling for Comparative Performance against the PAN

Vote for the PRI When Controlling for Comparative Performance against the PRD

Probability of Voting for the PRI Depending on Forecast and Its Uncertainty

Average Economic Indicators: 198296

Expectation of the PRIs Economic Performance

Voting Intention by Approval of Salinas and Summary Measure of Approval of Zedillos Handling of the Economy, Unemployment, and Inflation

The Voters Comparative Prospective Economic Assessments, PRI vis--vis the Opposition, 1994 and 1997 National Elections

Effect of Prior Beliefs and Retrospective Evaluations on Expectations of Party Performance

Effect of Presidential Approval and Direct Retrospective Evaluations on Expectations of Party Economic Performance

Logit Analysis on Vote for the 1994 PRI Vote

Logit Analysis on Vote of the 1997 PRI Vote

Predicted Probability of Voting PRI in 1994 and 1997, by Comparative Prospective Evaluations and Direct Mediated Retrospective Judgments

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