Richard Javad Heydarian - Asias New Battlefield: The USA, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific

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More praise for Asias New Battlefield

Combining lucid analysis with rich data and elegant prose, Heydarians book provides a tour dhorizon of the central dynamics that are shaping Asias strategic landscape. A must-read for anyone who is interested in the future of Asia.

Alexander Vuving, Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies

A valuable source for policy makers, academics, researchers and those who would like to understand the dynamics among the powers in Southeast Asia and the possible dangers that might arise.

Wilfrido Villacorta, former Philippine ambassador and permanent representative to ASEAN

About the author

Richard Javad Heydarian is an assistant professor in political science and international relations at De La Salle University, the Philippines, and served as a foreign policy adviser at the Philippine House of Representatives from 2009 to 2015. He has also been a consultant for various national and international institutions, advising on economic and foreign policy issues concerning the Philippines and East Asia. He has written for and/or been interviewed by, among other major publications, Foreign Affairs, Aljazeera, ABC, BBC, Bloomberg, CNN, The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Nation, The National Interest , and contributed to leading think tanks such as the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), and the Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Centre (NOREF). The Manila Bulletin , one of the Philippines leading newspapers, has described him as one of the countrys foremost foreign affairs and economic analysts. His previous works include How Capitalism Failed the Arab World: The Economic Roots and Precarious Future of the Middle East Uprisings (Zed Books, 2014).

ASIAS NEW BATTLEFIELD

The USA, China and the struggle for the Western Pacific

Richard Javad Heydarian

Foreword by Walden Bello

To my loving mother, Evangeline Pe Benito Foronda, who has always been there for me

And to my long-time mentor Walden Bello, who has been a great source of intellectual nourishment throughout the years

Asias New Battlefield: The USA, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific was first published in 2015 by Zed Books Ltd, The Foundry, 17 Oval Way, London SE11 5RR, UK

www.zedbooks.co.uk

Copyright Richard Javad Heydarian 2015

The right of Richard Javad Heydarian to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988.

Typeset in Plantin and Kievit by Swales & Willis Ltd, Exeter, Devon

Index by Rohan Bolton

Cover designed by Dougal Burgess

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise, without the prior permission of Zed Books Ltd.

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

ISBN 978-1-78360-313-8 hb

ISBN 978-1-78360-312-1 pb

ISBN 978-1-78360-314-5 pdf

ISBN 978-1-78360-315-2 epub

ISBN 978-1-78360-316-9 mobi

CONTENTS

Figures

Rising powers key economic and military indicators in their peak years

Five rising powers share of global GDP in their peak decades

Five rising powers share of global military spending in their peak decades

Russias growing defence spending

Overlapping claims in the South China Sea

Maritime entitlements under UNCLOS

Hydrocarbon reserves in the South China Sea

The Philippines top trading partners in 2013

Scarborough Shoal

Islands and outposts of competing claimant states in the Spratlys

US military assistance to the Philippines (200915)

The Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea

Chinese paramilitary patrols off the Senkaku islands, 200815

Japans consumer spending (1997 versus 2014)

The impact of Abes shrine visit on the Japanese stock markets (Nikkei)

Indias territorial disputes with China and Pakistan

The worlds biggest arms importers

The Nicobar and Andaman islands

Chinas string of pearls in the Indian Ocean

Mischief Reef before extensive Chinese construction activities (24 January 2012)

Mischief Reef after construction activities

The rapid transformation of Fiery Cross (August 2014March 2015)

The accelerated transformation of Fiery Cross (FebruaryMarch 2015)

The airstrip on Fiery Cross

Advanced facilities on Fiery Cross

The First and Second Island Chains

A comparison of actual and projected US and Chinese defence spending

The Philippines defence spending (19882012)

Chinas maritime law enforcement bureaucracy before and after reform

Tables

Chinas GDP as a percentage of GDP for other major economies (19522004)

Chinas GDP per capita as a percentage of figures for other major economies (19522005)

Early-twentieth-century assertions of sovereignty in the South China Sea

Major incidents in the South China Sea in 2011

Hydrocarbon exploration and production in the South China Sea

PhilippineChina bilateral visits by heads of state/government (19752007)

The Philippines top trading partners in 2013

Key developments in the Philippines v. China South China Sea arbitration

Comparison of military capabilities of Asias four most populated countries

Comparison of US and Chinese military

This book is the product of years of intensive research, active participation in various regional and international experts workshops and conferences, and extensive exchanges many on the record with a wide and diverse range of academics, journalists and policy-makers across the Asia-Pacific region and beyond.

Let me begin by thanking Walden Bello, for whom I worked as a foreign policy adviser at the Philippine House of Representatives for more than five years ( 2009 ) an extremely enriching experience, I must say. It was through our various collaborations that I was able to gradually hone my understanding of (and be inspired to further explore) the policy-making aspects of the South China Sea, and be exposed to challenges and dilemmas of policy-making. I also want to thank my friends and colleagues in academe, government and media for helping me to navigate a series of highly complex and contentious issues covered by this book. Obviously, ensuring (maximum-possible) objectivity and (much-needed) comprehensiveness was by no means easy, so I naturally had to rely on materials from and extensive discussions with experts (from varying disciplinary backgrounds) and policy-makers from various countries.

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