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Robert D. Kaplan - Asias Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific

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Asias Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific: summary, description and annotation

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From Robert D. Kaplan, named one of the worlds Top 100 Global Thinkers by Foreign Policy magazine, comes a penetrating look at the volatile region that will dominate the future of geopolitical conflict.
Over the last decade, the center of world power has been quietly shifting from Europe to Asia. With oil reserves of several billion barrels, an estimated nine hundred trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and several centuries worth of competing territorial claims, the South China Sea in particular is a simmering pot of potential conflict. The underreported military buildup in the area where the Western Pacific meets the Indian Ocean means that it will likely be a hinge point for global war and peace for the foreseeable future.
In Asias Cauldron, Robert D. Kaplan offers up a vivid snapshot of the nations surrounding the South China Sea, the conflicts brewing in the region at the dawn of the twenty-first century, and their implications for global peace and stability. One of the worlds most perceptive foreign policy experts, Kaplan interprets Americas interests in Asia in the context of an increasingly assertive China. He explains how the regions unique geography fosters the growth of navies but also impedes aggression. And he draws a striking parallel between Chinas quest for hegemony in the South China Sea and the United States imperial adventure in the Caribbean more than a century ago.
To understand the future of conflict in East Asia, Kaplan argues, one must understand the goals and motivations of its leaders and its people. Part travelogue, part geopolitical primer, Asias Cauldron takes us on a journey through the regions boom cities and ramshackle slums: from Vietnam, where the superfueled capitalism of the erstwhile colonial capital, Saigon, inspires the geostrategic pretensions of the official seat of government in Hanoi, to Malaysia, where a unique mix of authoritarian Islam and Western-style consumerism creates quite possibly the ultimate postmodern society; and from Singapore, whose benevolent autocracy helped foster an economic miracle, to the Philippines, where a different brand of authoritarianism under Ferdinand Marcos led not to economic growth but to decades of corruption and crime.
At a time when every days news seems to contain some new storylarge or smallthat directly relates to conflicts over the South China Sea, Asias Cauldron is an indispensable guide to a corner of the globe that will affect all of our lives for years to come.
Advance praise for Asias Cauldron
Asias Cauldron is a perfect summation of the present turbulent moment in history, when the World War II security structure is beginning a rapid transformation. Kaplan engages the striking possibilities of where the current confrontation between China and Japan could lead, and underscores the point that this is a lot more significant than a simple border dispute.Paul Bracken, Yale University, author of The Second Nuclear Age
Master global strategist Robert D. Kaplan turns his gaze to the bubbling heat of the South China Sea in his latest tour de force. Asias Cauldron deconstructs the extreme volatility of this enormous, dangerous, and vital maritime space.Admiral James Stavridis, United States Navy (Ret.), dean of the Fletcher School at Tufts University and Supreme Allied Commander of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 20092013

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Copyright 2014 by Robert D Kaplan Maps copyright 2014 by David Lindroth Inc - photo 1
Copyright 2014 by Robert D Kaplan Maps copyright 2014 by David Lindroth Inc - photo 2
Copyright 2014 by Robert D Kaplan Maps copyright 2014 by David Lindroth Inc - photo 3

Copyright 2014 by Robert D. Kaplan
Maps copyright 2014 by David Lindroth Inc.

All rights reserved.

Published in the United States by Random House, an imprint and division of Random House LLC, a Penguin Random House Company, New York.

R ANDOM H OUSE and the H OUSE colophon are registered trademarks of Random House LLC.

Chapter VI, Americas Colonial Burden, contains material from an earlier title by Robert D. Kaplan, Imperial Grunts (New York: Random House, 2005).

LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA
Kaplan, Robert D., author.
Asias cauldron : the South China Sea and the end of a stable Pacific / Robert D. Kaplan.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8129-9432-2
eBook ISBN 978-0-8129-9433-9
1. Pacific AreaForeign relations. 2. Pacific AreaPolitics and government. 3. South China Sea RegionStrategic aspects. 4. South China SeaInternational status. I. Title.
JZ1980.K37 2014
327.59dc23 2013036100

www.atrandom.com

Title-page photograph and border art: iStockphoto.com

Jacket design: Will Brown
Jacket photographs: (top) Harald Sund/Getty Images; (bottom) Stewart Sutton/Getty Images

Web asset: Excerpted from Asias Cauldron by Robert D. Kaplan, copyright 2014 by Robert D. Kaplan. Published by Random House, an imprint and division of Random House LLC, a Penguin Random House Company, New York.

v3.1

Whoever is able to write of the great number and infinity of islands there are from the straits of Kampar to Banda and from the straits of Singapore to the islands of Japan, which are beyond Chinaand between this island and Banda, there must be an area of more than two or three thousand leagues roundwhoever is able let him speak of it. And it is certain that many of the islands are worth speaking about, because many have gold, but it would be never ending and tedious. I will only speak of the few in this great abundance with which Malacca is in communication now, or was in the past, and I will touch on others in general terms, so that my project may be completed, and if my project does not carry sufficient weight, may I be forgiven.

THE SUMA ORIENTAL OF TOM PIRES, AN ACCOUNT OF THE EAST, FROM THE RED SEA TO CHINA, WRITTEN IN MALACCA AND INDIA IN 15121515

For there is no question but a just fear of an imminent danger, though there be no blow given, is a lawful cause of war.

FRANCIS BACON,
OF EMPIRE, 1612

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Asias Cauldron The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific - image 6
CONTENTS
Asias Cauldron The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific - image 7

PROLOGUE
Asias Cauldron The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific - image 8
The Ruins of Champa

I walk along jungle trails in the heat-inflicted silence. Blackened, redbrick humps lie strangled in greenery against steep mountains devoured by rain clouds. I am in My Son, in central Vietnam, forty miles inland from the coast of the South China Sea. Flowers and grass grow out of every nonvertical surface of each monument where altars, lamps, and lingas used to be placed, swimming in incense and camphor. Half-destroyed statues that recall India deep in Southeast Asia are embraced by columns in the walls, blotched blue and white with lichen. There are headless gods and time-mottled dancing figures now ferociously explored by insects. The loose bricks are like missing teeth: the monuments so hacked and battered that what remains recall the abstract shapes of modernist sculpture. A lichen-coated linga, the phallic symbol of Shivas manhood, stands alone and sentinel against the ages.

The size and abundance of Temple Groups B and C hold out the promise of a Vietnamese Angkor Wat, but once I come upon the other temple groups I realize just how little is left of nine centuries of religious life here, stretching from late antiquity to the high Middle Ages. Group A is a mere low pile of rubble, testimony to American helicopter-borne destruction in a war of less relevance to Southeast Asias future than are these ruins and what they represent.

The fiercest nationalisms are often begot by what, in Freudian terminology, is the narcissism of small differences. What rescues Vietnam from being a mere southern redoubt of Sinic culture is its Khmer and Indian heritage, which allows for a unique confection that is ever so similar and yet ever so different from the civilization of China. Invoking Champa, from the fourth through thirteenth centuries, is to expose the lie of Cold War area studies with which Washington remains enamored, which place Southeast Asia firmly in an East Asia and Pacific realm; while in fact this region is part of an organic continuum that is more properly labeled the Indo-Pacific, whose maritime heart is the South China Sea: for Champa represents a seafaring, piratical race. Squeezed between the Central Highlands and the sea, with numerous rivers and natural harbors at their disposal, with woods, spices, textiles, honey, wax, and metals to trade, the Chams were well placed to benefit from the commerce between the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. The French had it right when they designated this region not Southeast Asia, but Indochina.

Witness the medieval Chola Empire of the Hindu Tamils, based in southern India, which sent its fleets throughout this seaboard as far north as China; even as ancient Chinese pottery has been found as far south as Java, and Chinese ships under the medieval Tang and Yuan dynasties ventured as far as Odisha in northeastern India. Long before the North and South Vietnams of the Cold War era, there were northern and southern Vietnams that had existed across this civilizational fault line and across the chasm of the centuries between antiquity and modern times: Dai Viet being a young and insecure kingdom in the north after having been a province of the Chinese Empire for over a thousand years; while to the south lay the Khmer Empire and Champa. Champa, in particular, was the enemy of Dai Viet, preventing the latters expansion to the south, until Champa was finally reduced to near ashes by the majority Kinh in the north, with an underlying sense of guilt felt by northern Vietnam toward southern Vietnam ever since. Champa, as the historical and cultural representation of southern Vietnam, was always more closely connected to the Khmer and Malay worlds than to Sinicized Dai Viet to the north.

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