Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed - Failing States, Collapsing Systems BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence

Failing States,

Collapsing Systems

BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence 123

SpringerBriefs in Energy

Energy Analysis

Charles Hall

College of Environmental, SUNY ESF, Syracuse, NY, USA

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/10041

Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

Failing States, Collapsing Systems BioPhysical Triggers of Political Violence

Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed

Global Sustainability Institute Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge , UK

ISSN 2191-5520

ISSN 2191-5539

(electronic)

SpringerBriefs in Energy

ISBN

978-3-319-47814-2

ISBN

978-3-319-47816-6 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-47816-6

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016955192

The Author(s) 2017

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The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG

The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Contents

Introduction .............................................................................................

The Crisis of Civilization as an Analytical Framework ......................

2.1 The Human-Environment System as a Complex Adaptive System ..............................................................................

2.2

The Energy Metabolism of Human Civilization ..............................

2.3

The Physics of System Failure .........................................................

Net Energy Decline .................................................................................

3.1

The Decline of Conventional Oil .....................................................

3.2 The Rise and Decline of Unconventional Oil and Gas ....................

3.3

The Rise and Decline of Shale Gas ..................................................

3.4

The Decline of Coal and Uranium ...................................................

3.5

Peak and Terminal Decline of Net Energy .......................................

Permanent Secular Stagnation ..............................................................

4.1

Empirical Blindspots of Economic Theory ......................................

4.2

Economy as Embedded in Energy ...................................................

4.3

Plateau and Decline of Economic Growth .......................................

4.4

The Mythology of Decoupling .........................................................

Earth System Disruption ........................................................................

5.1

Ocean Acifi cation .............................................................................

5.2

Heat Waves .......................................................................................

5.3

Food Production ...............................................................................

Human System Destabilization ..............................................................

6.1

Intrastate Violence ...........................................................................

6.2

Civil Unrest ......................................................................................

6.3

Militarization ....................................................................................

6.4

Terrorism ..........................................................................................

v

vi

Contents

Biophysical Triggers of Crisis Convergence in the Middle East ........

7.1

From Syria to Iraq ..........................................................................

7.2

Yemen ............................................................................................

7.3

Is Saudi Arabia Next? ....................................................................

7.4

The New Normal ............................................................................

Biophysical Triggers of Crisis Convergence in Africa .........................

8.1

Behind Boko Haram in Nigeria .....................................................

8.2

Regime Rotation in Egypt ..............................................................

8.3

Authoritarian Turn .........................................................................

Biophysical Triggers of Crisis Convergence in Asia ............................

9.1

The End of the Indian dream .........................................................

9.2

China: Paper Tiger .........................................................................

9.3

Arrested Development ...................................................................

in the Euro-Atlantic Core .......................................................................

10.1

Europe ............................................................................................

10.2

North America ...............................................................................

10.3

Post-20302045 .............................................................................

to Civilizational Transition .....................................................................

11.1

Global Phase-Shift .........................................................................

11.2

Clean Energy and Environmental Restoration ...............................

11.3

Circular Economy and Post-Capitalism .........................................

11.4

Information Revolution and Social Liberation ..............................

11.5

A New Action-Research Agenda ...................................................

Bibliography ....................................................................................................

Index ................................................................................................................. 107