Daniel L. Byman - Political Violence and Stability in The States Of The Northern Persian Gulf (1999)
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Political Violence and Stability in The States Of The Northern Persian Gulf (1999)
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Political violence threatens the lives of U.S. soldiers and the stability of U.S. allies throughout the world. This report examines the threat of political violence in the Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates and the best means of reducing that threat. It assesses sources of discontent, common reasons for anti-regime politicization, potential triggers of violence, and the influence of foreign powers. The report then describes the strategies that regimes in the area have used to interfere with political organization and to counter violence in general. The report concludes by noting implications of political violence for both the United States and its allies in the Gulf, and by assessing the impact of various measures that could reduce violence: enacting political and economic re forms in the Gulf; changing the U.S. presence in the region through new basing and operational approaches;
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Political Violence and Stability in the States of the Northern Persian Gulf
author
:
Byman, Daniel.; Green, Jerrold D.
publisher
:
RAND
isbn10 | asin
:
0833027263
print isbn13
:
9780833027269
ebook isbn13
:
9780585245157
language
:
English
subject
Political violence--Persian Gulf Region, Political stability--Persian Gulf Region.
publication date
:
1999
lcc
:
JQ1840.B95 1999eb
ddc
:
320.9536/09/049
subject
:
Political violence--Persian Gulf Region, Political stability--Persian Gulf Region.
Page a
The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies under Contract DASW01-95-C-0059.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Byman, Daniel, 1967 - . Political violence and stability in the states of the Northern Persian Gulf / Daniel L. Byman and Jerrold D. Green. p. cm. "Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense by RAND's National Defense Research Institute." "MR-1021-OSD Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2726-3 1. Political violencePersian Gulf Region. 2. Political stabilityPersian Gulf Region. I. Green, Jerrold D. II. RAND Corporation. III. Title. JQ1840.B95 1999 320.9536'09'049dc21 99-25031 CIP
RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.
Copyright 1999 RAND
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND.
Published 1999 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1333 H St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005-4707 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/
To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Internet: order@rand.org
Page i
Political Violence and Stability in the States of the Northern Persian Gulf
Daniel L.Byman Jerrold D. Green
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
RAND National Defense Research Institute
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
Page iii
Preface
Political violenceterrorism and politically motivated killings or destruction intended to advance a political causehas taken the lives of hundreds of U.S. soldiers and civilians in the Middle East in the 1980s and 1990s, and remains a serious threat for the coming decades. Its dangers go beyond lost lives: Political violence can create a climate of unrest in a critical region, leading once-stable countries such as Lebanon and Algeria to descend into an inferno of strife and civil war. In 1995 and 1996, terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia killed 24 U.S. soldiers, and the possibility for further violence remains real. These terrorist attacks also raise a broader threat to the security of the U.S. regional presence and the stability of area regimes. In a worst-case scenario, terrorists also might act in conjunction with regional aggressors, helping them strike behind the lines of U.S. allies and impeding a U.S. military buildup.
This report assesses the threat of political violence in the northern Persian Gulf states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates. It examines general sources of discontent in the Gulf, common reasons for anti-regime politicization, potential triggers of violence, and the influence of foreign powers. The report then assesses those strategies that regimes in the area have used to interfere with political organization and to counter violence in general. The report concludes by noting implications of political violence for both the United States and its allies in the Gulf.
This assessment is intended to inform both policymakers and individuals concerned with Persian Gulf security. Policymakers can draw
Page iv
on the assessment in judging how to better protect U.S. forces and to understand the true level of threat to Gulf regime stability.
This research was conducted for the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict/Policy Planning) within the Center for International Security and Defense Policy of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies.
Page v
Contents
Preface
iii
Figures
ix
Table
xi
Summary
xiii
Acknowledgments
xxv
Chapter One Introduction
1
Political Violence As a Threat to the U.S. Presence in the Gulf
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