James E Doyle - Renewing Americas Nuclear Arsenal: Options for the 21st Century

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Renewing Americas Nuclear Arsenal:

Options for the 21st Century

James E. Doyle

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | WC2R 2PG | UK

First published September 2017 Routledge

4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN

for The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Arundel House, 6 Temple Place, London, WC2R 2PG, UK

www.iiss.org

Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge

711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017

Routledge is an imprint of Taylor & Francis, an Informa Business

2017 The International Institute for Strategic Studies

DIRECTOR-GENERAL AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE Dr John Chipman

EDITOR Dr Nicholas Redman

ASSISTANT EDITOR Alice Aveson

EDITORIAL Katherine Carr, Chris Raggett, Gaynor Roberts

COVER/PRODUCTION John Buck, Kelly Verity

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membership is drawn from almost 100 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate.

The Institutes publications are designed to meet the needs of a wider audience than its own membership and are available on subscription, by mail order and in good book-shops. Further details at www.iiss.org.

All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

ADELPHI series

ISSN 1944-5571

ADELPHI 462

ISBN 978-0-8153-8466-3

Contents

Guide

ALCM	Air-launched cruise missile
CTBT	Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (1996)
DoD	US Department of Defense
DoE	US Department of Energy
GBSD	Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent
GLCM	Ground-launched cruise missile
ICBM	Intercontinental ballistic missile
INF Treaty	Treaty Between The United States Of America And The Union Of Soviet Socialist Republics On The Elimination Of Their Intermediate-Range And Shorter-Range Missiles (1987, commonly referred to as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty)
ISR	Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
IW	Interoperable warhead
JASSM	Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile
JASSMER	Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff MissileExtended Range
JDAM	Joint Direct Attack Munition
JSOW	Joint Standoff Weapon
LEP	Life-extension programme
LRSO	Long-Range Standoff Weapon
MIRV	Multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle
Mk4-A	Re-entry vehicles of the UGM-133A Trident II SLBM that carry the W76 warhead
Mk-5	Re-entry vehicles of the UGM-133A Trident II SLBM that carry the W88 warhead
New START	The Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, 2010)
NNSA	National Nuclear Security Administration
NPR	Nuclear Posture Review
NPT	Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968)
SLBM	Submarine-launched ballistic missile
SSBN	Nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarine
SSGN	Nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine
SSMP	Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan
SSN	Nuclear-powered attack submarine

The author wishes to thank the Paul Olum Fellowship at the Ploughshares Fund for supporting research for this book.

In the next few years the government of the United States will make decisions regarding the renewal of its nuclear forces that will have huge implications for the security of the country and its allies, its public finances and the salience of nuclear weapons in global politics. Current plans provide for spending an estimated US$1 trillion over 30 years to modernise or replace the full triad of air-, land- and sea-based nuclear weapons. This would amount to renewing the Cold War-era nuclear arsenal as a central part of US security strategy, rather than restructuring the force in a manner that would acknowledge fundamental changes in the security environment and seek to lead the world in a strategic transition away from nuclear weapons.

While the planned timescale for the complete modernisation or replacement of the triad exceeds 30 years, key decisions on most major weapons-system procurement will occur during the next decade. Most of the current warheads and delivery vehicles will reach the end of their designed operational lifetimes at various points over the next 20 years. Facilities to produce or refurbish nuclear warheads in the enduring stockpile also require modernisation, consolidation and improved safety.

The current US modernisation plans call for the construction of a new triad of nuclear-weapons systems over the next 2030 years effectively replicating the full range of existing systems which will remain in service until 2080 or later. The planned new weapons and delivery systems include 100 new B-21 Raider strategic aircraft, 1,0001,100 new nuclear-armed cruise missiles, 12 new Columbia -class strategic ballistic-missile submarines and 400 new land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). In addition, the US plans to refurbish seven types of nuclear warheads. Plans for each leg of the nuclear triad under these plans and their estimated costs are summarised in .

The current plans, and the purposes and uses for US nuclear weapons are articulated in official documents including the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), the 2012 Department of Defense (DoD) document Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, the 2013 Report on Nuclear Employment Strategy, the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review and the 2015 National Security Strategy of the United States.

Each of the nuclear-weapon delivery systems described in

In early 2015, experts estimated that the nuclear stockpile of the US DoD had been reduced to 4,760 warheads. This constitutes the military stockpile of nuclear weapons theoretically

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